This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.
Ralph asks:
What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?
My take is that it's much ado about nothing.
The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it? Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances. He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.
Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball. One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring. I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).
I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines. Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.
The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks. To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24. And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.
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