Teams of diplomats have gathered in the Turkish city of Istanbul for rounds of talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
But expectations for tangible progress remain low, and negotiations could continue for months, experts have said.
Still, a meeting on Friday between Ukrainian and Russian representatives was a significant moment for the war, as it was the first time the two sides had sat face-to-face since the early days of Moscow’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago.
US President Donald Trump has said that no significant progress in the peace tasks can happen before he meets his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
“Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”, Trump said on board Air Force One during a trip to the Middle East.
“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” he added. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”
Here, The i Paper looks at whether or not he’s right – and the different scenarios for what could happen next for Ukraine following a significant week for peace talks.
Two rounds of negotiations are scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Friday, though hopes for any significant breakthroughs remain minimal.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to take part in talks in the Dolmabahçe palace with Ukrainian and Turkish officials.
After the first meeting, the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams will join Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Rubio is not expected to take part in the second meeting.
The US administration realizes European allies have to be engaged in talks about ending the Ukraine war, experts say (Photo: Armend Nimani/AFP)Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized the Russian delegation’s lack of senior decision-makers, labelling it a “dummy” team.
The Russian side, led by Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky, has said they possess the necessary experience and authorization by the president, but critics contend that any meaningful decisions will ultimately rest with higher authorities –namely Putin himself.
“Let’s be realistic. There’s not going to be any big breakthrough at these talks,” said John Lough, Russia and Eurasia Programme fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, who also served as a Nato ambassador to Moscow.
“It is significant that the two sides are speaking to each other again directly. And that is certainly the result of what President Trump has done over the last couple of months. And it’s clear that Putin wants to negotiate directly with Trump himself.
“But for that negotiation to take place and to make any sort of progress, the groundwork has to be done between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators.”
Trump secures a ceasefire – but will it hold?
The American side has said that reaching a ceasefire as a first step in the negotiations is crucial, by there could be “different variants” of how a ceasefire can look, Lough said.
“If Trump gets involved directly in speaking to Putin, then I think there has to be a ceasefire.”
However, “we know from previous times, after 2014-2015, that you can have ceasefire arrangements, but they get violated. And there’s a very bad history there, particularly on the Russian side,” Lough added, referencing Moscow’s initial invasion of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Affairs Serhii Kyslytsya attend one of the negotiations at the Turkish Presidential office Dolmabahce in Istanbul. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images)Policing a ceasefire would be very difficult and would involve some sort of enforcement power, he said.
Zelensky has suggested a buffer zone along the eastern border aimed at preventing future incursions from Russia.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have proposed a “Coalition of the Willing” — a multinational force made up of troops from several countries — intended to act as a deterrent and help prevent future conflicts.
“A lot is going to depend on the arrangements around that potential ceasefire to see where it can hold or not,” Lough said.
Even if the parameters of a ceasefire are agreed upon, there is a significant risk that both sides could continue launching attacks on each other, or the truce could ultimately collapse.
“You’ve got to look at that scenario, because that would undoubtedly spill over into the diplomatic process and possibly interrupt it,” Lough said.
“I think the likelihood is that the Russians will continue now to both talk and fight. And I think my view is that Putin is not sure about how much he can get from the diplomatic process. And equally, he’s not sure about how much he can obtain from just continuing fighting.”
Putin may be trying to keep “both options open”, he said.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that US has low expectations that the Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul will lead to a breakthrough (Photo: Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu/Getty Images)During the negotiations to reach a lasting peace, a number of “fundamental” questions would need to be resolved, including how Ukraine will defend itself, how the issue of Russia’s alleged war crimes would be addressed, and on the other side, how to show Putin’s electorate that the rights of Russians living in Ukrainian territories are protected.
“So you can see this is going to be a very difficult and complex negotiation. And even if there was goodwill on both sides, it’s going to take, I think, several months.”
War ‘much more complicated’ than US originally thought
It appears the US administration is beginning to understand that “this war is much more complicated than it originally thought,” and that to bring it to an end, it needs to “pay more attention to Ukrainian interests”, Lough said.
“I’ll put it this way. I think the Americans understand that they cannot ignore the Europeans in their efforts to end this war, that European security interests are impacted by the war and will be impacted by its outcome. So the Europeans have to be involved.”
Therefore, discussions between the US, European countries and Ukraine could still be seen as a sign of progress in that direction, he said.
Meetings part of Ukraine peace negotiations begin in Istanbul, Turkey on May 15, 2025 (Photo: Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Anadolu/Getty Images)Even if the fighting stops, Ukraine and European allies will continue boosting their defences to prevent further aggression from Russia.
Putin is unlikely to abandon the pursuit of his objectives as long as he remains in power, experts have argued.
Therefore, the formation of the Coalition of the Willing, and the presence of Starmer, Macron, as well as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Kyiv “was quite significant”, Lough said. “And the fact they spoke to Trump, that’s important.”
The leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Poland travelled to Kyiv last week as a show of support.
On Saturday, the major European powers proposed an unconditional 30-day Ukraine ceasefire with the backing of the US president. In response, Putin proposed direct talks without agreeing to a truce.
“Effectively, a long ceasefire, perhaps that’s achievable, but it’s going to certainly require President Trump getting involved,” Lough said.
“I don’t see any alternative to that, because Putin wants to have this conversation with the US, and Trump is prepared to have that conversation.”
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