With spring ball and the transfer portal in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look ahead to the 2025 season and breakdown the SEC schedule from a variety of angles.
In this piece, we’ll identify a potential trap game for every SEC program this fall.
For a contest to qualify as a trap game, the team in question must be projected to be a significant betting favorite over its trap game opponent. It also helps if the matchup comes before or after an emotional rivalry clash or some other marquee contest.
Trap games for every SEC team in 2025
With that being said, here’s 1 trap game for every SEC team in 2025:
Alabama: at Mizzou on Oct. 11
Alabama will likely be a double-digit favorite in this game. The Crimson Tide have significantly more talent than Mizzou but this game arrives at an awkward spot on the schedule. Alabama’s 2 previous games are against Georgia and Vanderbilt — 2 crucial games (for different reasons) for Kalen DeBoer. The game after Mizzou is Tennessee, another rivalry tilt that Alabama has to win. This is also a spot that Eli Drinkwitz has excelled in. Mizzou is 7-5 straight up and 9-3 against the spread as a home underdog during his tenure.
Arkansas: vs. Mississippi State on Nov. 1
It’s not easy to identify a trap game for the Razorbacks this year. Arkansas has a very tough SEC schedule and I’m not a believer in Group-of-5 challengers Memphis or Arkansas State in 2025 (both of whom are outside the top-100 in ESPN’s returning production metric). With that in mind, I’ll toss out Mississippi State as Arkansas’s trap game. While this is undoubtedly a must-win game for Sam Pittman, Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs will be pushing for a big road win at this point in the schedule too.
Auburn: at Arkansas on Oct. 25
Auburn has a very manageable schedule in 2025 — particularly by SEC standards. Yes, the Tigers have to face Georgia, but the Bulldogs are the only CFP team from 2024 on this schedule. Only one other team (Alabama) was even close to the CFP picture by late November last year. The Arkansas game comes at a pivotal point in the schedule in late October. If Auburn takes care of business in this game — as it should — then it’s possible the Tigers will still be in the Playoff picture as they enter the home stretch. But with so much on the line, tripping up in Fayetteville is certainly a possibility.
Florida: vs. South Florida on Sept. 6
Florida has no business losing to South Florida this year, but the Gators will need to take USF seriously. Alex Golesh is a good coach and Byrum Brown is capable of making big-time plays. South Florida is also 10th in ESPN’s returning production rankings, so I’m expecting a better season from the Bulls than we saw a year ago. LSU is on deck, so Florida could get caught looking ahead here.
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Georgia: at Auburn on Oct. 11
Georgia has not lost to Auburn since 2017. The Bulldogs will likely be heavily favored once again this year, but this could be the year Auburn snaps the streak. A lot will depend on what Jackson Arnold becomes, but Auburn has a pretty high ceiling in 2025 and Hugh Freeze nearly pulled off the upset against UGA 2 years ago when a much better Bulldogs team made the trip to Auburn. Georgia has Ole Miss and Florida up next after facing Auburn on the road.
Kentucky: vs. Toledo on Aug. 30
Kentucky has maintained a pretty high floor under Mark Stoops, but that will be put to the test in 2025. For a trap game, I’m aiming pretty low with this matchup against Toledo in Week 1. This is a Rockets team that beat up on Mississippi State a year ago, so they won’t be lacking confidence when they arrive in Lexington. Toledo also ranks No. 11 nationally in offensive returning production, per ESPN’s projections. With numerous transfers and an uncertain QB situation, Kentucky could be vulnerable early on.
LSU: at Vanderbilt on Oct. 18
Vanderbilt is another team that ranks very highly in ESPN’s returning production rankings. Everyone remembers what Diego Pavia and the Commodores accomplished vs. Alabama last season. Why couldn’t they do the same vs. LSU? That’s a question LSU would be wise to ask itself as it prepares to face Vandy. Notably, this game comes just before tilts with Texas A&M and Alabama in LSU’s schedule.
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Mississippi State: vs. Northern Illinois on Sept. 20
Northern Illinois pulled off the biggest upset of the 2024 season when it beat Notre Dame on the road. It would take significantly less to beat a Mississippi State team that projects to be one of the worst in the SEC once again. Although this might be Mississippi State’s best chance at an FBS win this year, it’s also the closest thing to a trap game on this schedule.
Mizzou: vs. Mississippi State on Nov. 15
Even in a rebuilding year, Mizzou should have no business losing to Mississippi State. But that’s what makes this a potential trap game — especially with where it falls on the schedule. This game comes just 1 week before Mizzou will travel to Norman to take on old Big 12 foe Oklahoma. Mississippi State will be desperate to pick up a win by this point in the season, so Mizzou would do well to not overlook Jeff Lebby’s team even with the Sooners on deck.
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Oklahoma: vs. Mizzou on Nov. 22
It’s borderline-impossible to pick a trap game for the Sooners this year. Oklahoma arguably has the toughest conference slate of any SEC team this year — it doesn’t face Kentucky, Vanderbilt or Mississippi State. It’s unlikely OU will overlook Mizzou, particularly with how that game ended a year ago in Columbia. But this game is sandwiched in between Alabama and LSU for the Sooners. If Missouri is having a down season by late November, it’s possible Oklahoma could get caught looking past the Tigers.
Ole Miss: vs. Tulane on Sept. 20
Lane Kiffin has raised the floor at Ole Miss to the point that the Rebels really shouldn’t be losing at home to an AAC team, but Tulane could be dangerous in 2025. Head coach Jon Sumrall will have this game circled as he eyes a résumé-making win ahead of a key coaching carousel for him next winter. Ole Miss also lost a ton off of last year’s team and will have an inexperienced quarterback under center in 2025. This early-season tilt could be an issue for the Rebels if they aren’t careful.
South Carolina: vs. Kentucky on Sept. 27
I’m not necessarily expecting big things from Kentucky in 2025, but this game falls in a dangerous spot for the Gamecocks on their 2025 schedule. After facing UK, here are South Carolina’s next 5 opponents in order: LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Last year, the Gamecocks blew out Kentucky thanks to some bad turnovers by the Wildcats. But Kentucky’s defense actually performed pretty well considering the circumstances, limiting South Carolina to 5 yards per play. We’ll see if South Carolina brings its A-game for this one.
Tennessee: vs. Arkansas on Oct. 11
The Iamaleava Bowl could be problematic for the Vols. This game comes just 1 week before Tennessee makes the trip to Tuscaloosa in search of its 3rd win in the last 4 seasons against Alabama. It’s hard to know what we’ll get out of Tennessee this season with Joey Aguilar under center and so many pieces to replace on both sides of the ball. A loss to Arkansas would represent a step back for this program under Josh Heupel, but it’s not impossible.
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Texas: vs. Vanderbilt on Nov. 1
Credit to Steve Sarkisian — Texas has been pretty much immune to trap games over the past 2 seasons. In 28 games as a favorite over the past couple of years, the Longhorns are 24-4 straight up. Two of the 4 losses have come to Georgia. Another came to Oklahoma in 2023 and then there was Texas’s CFP semifinal loss to Washington. None of those games even remotely resemble a trap game. With that being said, there’s no perfect answer here, but Vanderbilt is probably the closest thing to a trap game on this schedule. The Commodores played Texas well a year ago, losing by just 3 in Nashville. Texas also has Georgia on deck after it faces Vandy.
Texas A&M: vs. UTSA on Aug. 30
Texas A&M is another team that’s difficult to find a trap game for, particularly with its SEC schedule. I’m reaching a bit here, but UTSA is 7th in offensive returning production per ESPN and the Roadrunners put together some impressive performances last season against good teams like Memphis and Army. Texas A&M’s quarterback situation is still a question mark with Marcel Reed expected to win the job. I’d guess the Aggies are better at the end of the year than the beginning, which could make them vulnerable in Week 1 if everything breaks right for UTSA.
Vanderbilt: vs. Kentucky on Nov. 22
How good will Vandy be in 2025? That’s pretty tough to answer. Diego Pavia is back and the Commodores are in the top 10 of ESPN’s returning production rankings, but will they be able to replicate their success of a year ago? I’m not so sure Vanderbilt will be favored in many SEC games next season and its nonconference schedule doesn’t have any obvious trap games. But this contest against Kentucky could prove to be tricky as it comes the week before a rivalry-game matchup vs. Tennessee.
Breaking down 1 potential trap game for every SEC team in 2025 Saturday Down South.
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