A hot, muggy, and potentially stormy day is set for the Chicago area Thursday, with temperatures that could break a heat record followed by the chance for tornadoes, hail, 75 mile-per-hour winds and heavy downpours.
But that’s only if storms do develop, the NBC 5 Storm Team said — and it’s a “big if.”
“We could see nothing develop,” NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Alicia Roman stressed, due to the dry air in place.
Ahead of the potential for storms, the entire Chicago area will see hours of dry time, hot and humid conditions, and the first 90-degree of the year.
As the steamy weather moves in, here’s breakdown of what to expect and when.
Record-breaking heat
Thursday morning started out mild, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s across the area.
As the day goes on, the heat will rise, Roman said. By 12 p.m., temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 80s for most parts, with cooler readings along the lake.
The hottest temperatures of the day come around 4 p.m., Roman said, with record-warmth expected and most areas in the 90s.
The forecast high for Thursday is 92 degrees, though the North Shore will remain in the 80s. The record high for May 15 is 91 degrees, set in 1962.
“This would be only the 6th time to reach 90 degrees before May 16th in the last 45 years,” NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes said. “Our average first 90 degree day is June 5th.”
Also rising throughout the day will be the humidity. Dew points were expected to reach the upper 60s by the late afternoon, leading to muggy conditions.
“Because of the high dew points, it may actually feel more like the mid-to-upper 90s later on this afternoon,” Roman said.
Potential storm timing
Much of the morning and afternoon hours are expected to remain dry, the NBC 5 Storm Team said. Beginning around 3 p.m., wind gusts will start to rise, reaching around 30 mph at times.
“However, if we do have a thunderstorm developing, we could see wind gusts within those thunderstorms even higher, up to 70 or 75 mph,” Roman said.
Dry air in place may limit storm coverage in afternoon. If severe weather does develop, storms were expected to begin around 4 p.m. to the west, including in Woodstock, DeKalb and down through northern Kendall county.
Around 6 p.m., storms could move into Chicago and to the south, and then into Northwest Indiana between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.
“The thing with these storms — if they do develop — they will be quick,” Roman said. “Quick moving in, and quick moving out.”
Between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m., all parts of Chicago will be under an “enhanced” risk of severe weather, which ranks as level three of five on the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather scale.
“If those storms do develop, all weather hazards will be at play,” Roman said.
That includes destructive winds and three-inch hail, an alert from the National Weather Service said.
“A tornado threat may develop as well with the most intense storms,” the NWS warned.
The storms could also threaten the start of night one of Beyonce’s Cowboy Carter tour at Soldier Field, set to begin at 7 p.m. Some models however show a storm even splitting in two, Roman said, with one part impacting the North Shore, and one impacting the South Shore.
“That means it could leave out downtown Chicago altogether,” Roman said.
Friday could see more chances for an isolated storm, Roman said, with temperatures in the upper 80s. Over the weekend and into next week, temperatures will feel more like spring again, Roman said, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.
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