Yesterday’s announcement of a 90‑day suspension of some US‑China tariffs lit a fire under USDJPY, propelling the pair from a gap higher low 145.71, to a session peak at 148.64. That rally stopped cold in a long‑standing swing zone between 148.56 and 148.73 (red arrows on the chart) — the same band that capped price action multiple times in February–March and going back to December 2024.
Today, the mood has shifted. A lower‑than‑expected US CPI print clipped US yields and the dollar, knocking USDJPY back lower. Despite the setback, buyers still hold the near‑term edge while price remains above the first support target:
147.20‑147.34 swing area dating to August 2024 (not shown)
38.2 % retrace of the April rebound at 147.14
Hold above that risk‑defining zone and the upside bias survives; break below and the recovery narrative starts to unravel.
On the topside, the market must clear yesterday’s 148.73 high to reignite momentum. A break would expose a cluster of hurdles including the::
50 % retrace of the 2025 decline at 149.38
Daily 200‑MA at ≈149.58
Psychological 150.00 level
Daily 100‑MA 150.30
Key levels (single‑line bullets):
Resistance: 148.56‑148.73 (swing area), 149.38 (50 % retracement), 149.58 (200 day moving average), 150.30 (100 day moving average)
Support: 147.20‑147.34 (swing), 147.14 (38.2 %), 146.53 (prev low from March)
Bias: Bullish while > 147-13 -147.20; break
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