The Celtics finally showed their full potential against the Knicks in a critical Game 3 road victory. And it wasn’t just about 3-point shooting regression.
Less than a minute into second half of their Game 3 battle at Madison Square Garden, the Boston Celtics tried to throw a pass into the post that was deflected.
It landed in the hands of a wide open Derrick White in the corner, who canned the open 3 to give Boston a 74-46 lead over the New York Knicks. The game wasn’t close after that; the Celtics cruised to a 115-93 lead to trim the Knicks’ lead in the series down to 2-1.
The play was emblematic of the whole bounce-back performance by the Celtics. Finally, some balls bounced their way. Finally, open 3s were hit. And finally, the big lead that was built was extended instead of wasting away slowly over the course of the second half.
The Celtics looked like the defending champions and the Knicks looked like the underdogs. For one game at least, the series was back to how most expected it to be.
Reshoots
The most obvious difference for the Celtics offense was the 3-point shooting. The Celtics shot 25% from behind the line in each of the first two games of the series. In Game 3 on Saturday, they shot 20 of 40 (50%).
This regression was always likely to happen but it’s not all random. The missed 3s were a huge part of the first two losses, but so was the offensive structure, particularly after the Celtics got up big and took their foot off the gas.
In Game 3, there was no let up. The Knicks have been switching worse defenders onto Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown hoping the Celtics take the bait and run isolations, and Boston’s best players were happy to oblige in the first two games.
In baseball, sometimes finesse pitchers get too amped up in big moments and start to overthrow their pitches, which causes them to miss the mark or get less spin on their breaking balls. They end up getting hit harder because they’re putting their effort in the wrong place.
The Celtics were overthrowing for the first two games. Instead of recognizing they were at their best when everybody touched the ball, they would find a matchup they liked and isolate it. That’s fine if you have elite isolation players but that’s not what makes Tatum special.
In Games 1 and 2, the number of one-pass possessions for the Celtics were too high. In Game 3, it was clearly a point of emphasis for Joe Mazzula to involve his whole offense. When the Celtics got the switches they wanted, they attacked them with drives to the rim and kick outs when the help came instead of step-back jumpers.
The Celtics didn’t have 20 assists in either of the first two games but eclipsed that mark with 23 on Saturday. The 3-point shooting was better but the open 3s were coming in the rhythm of the offense and in catch-and-shoot opportunities the Celtics got all year long.
When you mix better shooting with better shots, the shooting percentages can go up in a hurry.
Walk to Run
One of the most exciting things about any playoff series is watching teams adapt to their opponents’ tendencies as the series extends. For the Celtics, this means getting out of their comfort zone and running against the Knicks when the opportunity presents itself.
The Celtics aren’t a team that wants to run a lot because their halfcourt offense is so lethal it usually makes sense to wait for all five guys to get back and run their sets.
But the Knicks employ several perimeter players who are skilled at grabbing offensive rebounds – and have the green light to do so. Josh Hart is the best of the bunch, but he’s not alone.
The way to make teams pay isn’t just by keeping those players off the board; it’s also by running when their aggression puts them behind the play in transition defense. The Celtics have finally started to do this.
In Game 1, they had just eight fast-break points. In Game 2, that number crept up to 13. In Game 3, it was up to 18. These easy baskets weren’t that necessary in Saturday’s rout, but they could help if the shots stop falling again.
It’s not like the Knicks had an outlier turnover game, either. They turned it over 11 times. It was simply a more conscious effort by the Celtics to push the ball up the floor when possible.
Not Out of the Woods
The Celtics should feel good about their effort in Game 3, but it’s still one game in a playoff series. You don’t have to look far to see an example of how a blowout win doesn’t always guarantee a shift in the series. The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Denver Nuggets by 43 points in Game 2 to even the series then subsequently lost Game 3 in overtime.
The Knicks still have home-court advantage in Game 4 and are one hot shooting game at home away from putting the Celtics on the brink of elimination. And our projection model still gives New York the advantage with a 60.4% probability of winning this Eastern Conference semifinal.
The fourth quarter didn’t provide any drama this time around, but the Celtics did have a few possessions that fell back into the bad habits of Game 1 and 2. Tatum had a couple of lazy isolation step-backs that were bailed out by offensive rebounds and he got baited into an offensive foul after Jalen Brunson switched onto him at one point.
The Knicks will keep trying to tempt him into his worst tendencies.
Payton Pritchard was the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, but he likely just had his best game of the series with 23 points while shooting 5 of 10 from behind the arc.
With Kristaps Porzingis still not looking fully healthy, the Celtics are down to six players they trust to play big minutes. They’ll need at least some production from Pritchard, who had 22 points combined in Games 1 and 2, moving forward.
The Celtics are still a long way from putting their disastrous start to the series behind them, but Game 3 was an enormous step in the right direction. At long last, the reigning champions are off the mat and ready to defend their title in earnest.
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NBA Playoffs: Celtics Find Shot, Championship Mettle in Game 3 Rout of Knicks Opta Analyst.
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