MINNEAPOLIS — Patrick Bailey remains one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He’s at the top of the leaderboards in most defensive metrics, and he’s on his way to earning a second consecutive Gold Glove Award.
His offense so far, though, has been subpar.
Over 33 games, the switch-hitting Bailey has a slash line of .194/.234/.276 with no home runs. He enters Minneapolis with a four-game hitting streak, but is currently 52 percent worse than a league-average hitter, per OPS+. While Bailey’s primary responsibility is to lead the pitching staff, the Giants hope the 25-year-old returns to being a two-way force.
“I know he’s anxious to get going,” said hitting coach Pat Burrell. “I think he’s in a pretty good spot right now, so we’ll just keep monitoring. He’s definitely getting his work in. It’s hard enough to manage one side of it, but with switch hitters, it’s always a little more challenging. … I don’t think there’s anything more to it.”
Bailey’s offensive struggles are not a recent development. Since the second half of last season, Bailey has a .461 OPS over 291 plate appearances — the lowest mark among all players with at least 250 plate appearances. The lack of offense is especially odd since Bailey has had extended periods of being an above-average hitter.
In the first half of last season, Bailey posted a .283 batting average, .784 OPS, seven homers and 31 RBIs. By WAR, as calculated by FanGraphs, he was the most valuable catcher in baseball at the break despite missing time with a concussion. In the second half, by contrast, Bailey had a .434 OPS with one home run — a slump he attributed to his swing, not conditioning.
“We’re winning ballgames, and I’m doing what I can to try to help the team win,” Bailey said. “Just trying to stay consistent behind the plate and keep managing the pitching staff, then putting the work in before the games offensively to try to get where I want to get.”
A few things stick out regarding Bailey’s offensive profile. For one, he’s chasing considerably more often.
In ‘24, Bailey had a chase rate of 25.1 percent (72nd percentile). In ‘25, Bailey’s chase rate is 29.4 percent (37th percentile). His whiff rate has also jumped from 23.4 percent last season to 36.1 percent this season. It should come as no surprise, then, that Bailey is walking less and striking out more.
“The hardest thing to do is try to relax when you’re not performing — that’s the name of this game. Everybody goes through it. No one’s immune to it. We’ve seen that with a number of guys,” Burrell said. “To the point about Patty chasing, he’s a guy that can walk. He has a very good idea of what he’s doing up there. He understands how they’re pitching him. I think more than anything, it’s just about him getting comfortable.”
Added manager Bob Melvin: “He tends to walk and get into deeper counts. He’s maybe swinging a little too early right now.”
Bailey’s batted-ball profile is also vastly different this season compared to last season. Here’s Bailey’s year-to-year distribution of ground balls, fly balls and line drives:
Groundballs: 41.1% → 28.8%
Line Drives: 30.7% → 16.7%
Fly Balls: 24.9% → 50.0%
“Ground balls typically don’t play, but fly balls can hurt as well,” Bailey said. “Just trying to hit more line drives.”
Opposing pitchers are also avoiding Bailey’s sweet spots. As a left-handed hitter, Bailey feasts on pitches high in the strike zone, particularly high-and-inside. As a right-handed hitter, Bailey does his damage on inside pitches. This season, pitchers are staying away from where Bailey has had success.
The graphics on the left show the location of the pitches that Patrick Bailey has seen this season from both sides of the plate. The graphics on the right show Bailey’s career batting average in specific areas of the strike zone. (Graphics per Baseball Savant)“He’s not the only guy (struggling),” Melvin said. “So, sometimes, you put a little pressure on yourself when you don’t get off to a hot start. Last couple years, he’s gotten off to great starts and it’s been the second half that he’s fallen off offensively. It’s just a matter of time for him.”
That time could be soon approaching.
During his current four-game hitting streak, Bailey is 6-for-14 with two doubles, three RBIs and three runs scored. He collected two RBIs in two plate appearances during the Giants’ nine-run 11th inning on Tuesday, driving in the go-ahead run with a single, then bringing home the ninth and final run with a sacrifice fly. It’s an incredibly small sample size — so small that his slump cannot be considered busted — but no step in the right direction is too minute.
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Bailey has had stretches where he’s been one of the best hitters in San Francisco’s lineup while playing baseball’s most taxing position. The coming days will determine whether he can return to that form.
“There will be a time when he carries us just like there was last year,” Burrell said.
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