We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium with our Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Which, if any, European competitions can these teams qualify for?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights
Bournemouth are the favourites to win, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of victory at 40.7%. Aston Villa are unbeaten in their previous four matches against the Cherries. Two of the last three clashes between these two saw an equaliser scored in the 90th minute or later.Bournemouth and Aston Villa start the weekend side by side in the Premier League table, yet with both chasing European qualification, are still far apart in points terms.
If you disregard champions Liverpool and the three relegated clubs, the seven-point gap between the Cherries and Villa is the largest between any two clubs who are next to each other in the standings.
Neither team is expected to change position once the final three matchdays have been concluded, either. Opta’s predictions for the Premier League say Villa have a 56.5% likelihood of finishing seventh, with Bournemouth 48.4% certain to finish in the berth behind them.
For Villa boss Unai Emery, this is the first of three games in which he must look to turn his side’s 15.5% chance of a top-five finish into reality. It will not be easy.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have been the masters of punching upwards in 2024-25. They have won seven of their 13 Premier League games against teams starting the day above them in the table this season, only losing three. It gives them the highest win rate of any side to play more than one such game this term (54%).
Andoni Iraola’s side have rediscovered some form, too. Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W2 D3), having taken just one point from the five fixtures beforehand. The Cherries are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time since January, having beaten Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium last weekend.
Their upturn in results will be in part thanks to their injury troubles easing. Dango Ouattara did come off injured against Arsenal, while Ryan Christie, Luis Sinisterra, and Enes Ünal remain out, but Bournemouth were into double figures for absentees not so long ago.
The supreme pressing and energy of those on the pitch has been integral to their success this term. It is hard to maintain that with a patched-up squad, though.
Bournemouth have had more goal attempts following a high turnover than any other side in the Premier League this season. Their 65 shots and eight goals from this method of winning the ball close to the opposition goal this term are their most in any of their eight top-flight campaigns.
Villa will need to be wary at the back. They already know about another of the Cherries’ strengths, too.
Bournemouth have scored more goals in second-half stoppage time than any other top-flight team in 2024-25 (8), while only Southampton (10) have conceded more such goals than Aston Villa. These stats collided at Villa Park in October, with Evanilson scoring in the 96th minute to earn a 1-1 draw for the Cherries.
More recently, the Brazilian has been in great form. He has been directly involved in six goals in his last eight Premier League appearances, more than he had in the 20 beforehand (5).
Antoine Semenyo has also been doing everything he can to keep his team in contention for UEFA Conference League qualification. He has scored two goals and assisted one more in his last four league appearances, with his strikes breaking the deadlock against Fulham and Manchester United in the previous two games at the Vitality Stadium.
While Villa don’t have a single player in such strong form, they do have a forward with an excellent record against this opponent. Ollie Watkins has been directly involved in five goals in his four Premier League starts against Bournemouth, with his four assists against the Cherries his most against any opponent.
With Marcus Rashford the only man currently on the visitors’ injured list, chances are Watkins will start. He will need to help Villa maintain their good form of seven wins from their last nine league games if they are to gate-crash the top five before the curtain comes down on the 2024-25 season.
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4 hours ago Ali Tweedale, David Segar, Matt Furniss, Ryan Benson, Oliver HopkinsBournemouth vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last three games at home to the Villans, winning two and scoring exactly two goals each time.
However, Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against the Cherries, winning twice, having lost four in a row against them beforehand.
It’s all a question of perspective. What is certain is that only one of the four top-flight meetings at the Vitality Stadium was settled by more than one goal, so this could be another close one.
They drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in October, with Ross Barkley’s goal for Villa cancelled out by Evanilson’s very late equaliser.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction
As with the head-to-head history, the Opta supercomputer doesn’t see much difference between the two teams in this game.
The home side are favourites, with Bournemouth winning 40.7% of the pre-match simulations. Aston Villa won more than a third of them (34.5%), though, with the remaining 24.8% of the 10,000 run-throughs ending in a draw.
The Cherries are unlikely to catch Aston Villa this season, but if the supercomputer proves correct then that possibility will remain in play as we head into the final two matchdays of 2024-25.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction Opta Analyst.
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