Chinese President Xi Jinping’s four-day state visit to Russia, which began yesterday, is sending Europe and the U.S. a stark message. Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow is here to stay.
It is past time for Brussels and Washington to recognize that Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are doubling down on their growing ideological war against the West. While the messaging at a state level is largely symbolic, their alliance is proving already deadly in Ukraine.
Since the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Beijing has provided the Kremlin with a steady flow of dual use technologies. As detailed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2024, this has included critical military use components including “semiconductors, ball bearings, and machine tools through a complicated network of China and Hong Kong-based companies.”
This has allowed Moscow to maintain its war aims in Ukraine and to continue rebuilding its badly mauled land army. In return, Beijing has benefited significantly through purchases of cheap Russian gas. Chinese imports and exports between the two countries now exceed $237 billion after 32.7 percent growth in 2023.
Contrary to Team Trump’s goals, Russia will not abandon its strategic alliance with China. Failed U.S.-led ceasefire negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are proof enough.
Despite U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff imprudently signaling that Washington was prepared to capitulate on every major Russian maximalist demand — including Ukraine ceding Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to Russia — Putin still is rejecting President Trump’s peace overtures.
Even one-sided theater ceasefires involving the Black Sea and strikes against civilian energy infrastructure failed to substantively alter Russia’s war goals in Ukraine. As noted by the Institute for the Study of War on May 4, “Putin is not reconsidering his short-term objectives in Ukraine.”
Nor is Putin altering his long-term goal — the Russian annexation of all of Ukraine. Even if Trump achieves a temporary ceasefire or a peace agreement is achieved, Putin’s strategic intent is to get it all eventually.
Yet, Putin’s goals are bigger than just Ukraine. They include dominating Eastern Europe – especially the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova. The underlying goal? The complete destruction of NATO.
Xi is on board strategically. Beijing, in particular, views Russia as a key counterweight to U.S. global hegemony.
Moscow and Beijing’s strategy is to divide Old NATO and New NATO. Putin fully understands that New NATO — especially the Baltic States and Poland — fear any return to a Russia-imposed Iron Curtain. Old NATO, separated by distance and the nuclear shields of France and the United Kingdom, are struggling to fully comprehend and understand the scope of the threat Russia poses now — and into the future.
Old NATO, in particular, must wake up. London, Paris and Berlin can no longer remain asleep at the wheel given Putin’s strategic machinations.
As we previously warned, Europe’s thin red line is Ukraine. Europe’s continued freedom – meaning West and East – hinges on the outcome of Putin’s now three-year plus ‘special military operation.’
Lose there and Eastern Europe is next. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently wrote the preface for a newly published Russian book on Lithuanian history that claims Lithuania and its language do not really exist. Where have we heard that before?
Putin is rapidly preparing his military for a future conflict with NATO. In addition to rebuilding and modernizing his land army, Putin is expanding military bases near Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia, and upgrading railway lines and other infrastructure along Russia’s western border with NATO.
While welcome, the European Union's 850 billion euro, four-year “Readiness 2030” program is not going to be enough to keep up with Russia, especially since Russia’s economy has been operating on a full war economic footing since mid-2024.
The fight for Europe is now and it is in Ukraine. Arming Ukraine to defeat Russia now would seem the better course of action while the Kremlin is at its weakest.
And arguably, given Xi’s state visit to Moscow — including his scheduled attendance at Friday’s Victory Day Parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe — China appears to be heavily betting on Putin winning in Ukraine.
Xi could have opted to play his cards differently. In the wake of Trump’s tariff war, Beijing has been making overtures to increase foreign trade with the EU. This included China recently removing restrictions on exchanges between EU and Chinese officials and lifting sanctions on EU parliament members.
Yet, instead of pursuing reproachment, Xi is meeting with Putin and appearing at Friday’s Victory Day Parade. Notably, the Chinese People’s Army’s Honor Guard is set to participate in the parade culminating at Red Square in Moscow.
China’s overt and blunt messaging is not lost on Brussels, nor on Ukraine. By attending the parade, Xi is lending credence to its anti-fascism and anti-Nazi messaging that is being directly aimed at Zelensky and his Ukrainian generals.
Plus, in April, two Chinese nationals fighting in the Russian army were captured by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine intelligence reports that as many as 155 Chinese nationals are fighting in Russia. That cannot happen without Xi’s approval. Beijing has denied the allegation, stating that the claim had "no basis in facts.”
Jorge Toledo, the EU ambassador to China, is not buying it though. He made it clear during an address marking the 50th anniversary of EU-China relations that the “EU will stand with Ukraine whatever it takes and for how long it takes.”
That is a good start.
Far more is needed. The time for talking by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is over. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz must greenlight Taurus deep-strike precision missiles to Ukraine. Paris, Berlin and London must immediately implement a proposed no-fly zone over Western Ukraine to protect against Putin intentionally targeting Ukrainian civilians.
Putin has absolutely no intention of going away. Not in Ukraine. Nor in Europe. As of Wednesday, it is estimated that he has lost in Ukraine dead or wounded 960,770 Russian, Chechen and North Korean soldiers (and likely an untold number of Chinese fighters as well).
That is the reality Europe must wake up to. Ditto Team Trump. Simply wishing Putin away — and by extension Xi too — is not a winning long-term strategy. Doing so only invites potentially losing World War III.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
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