Which team will win the 2024-25 League One play-offs? We assess all four participants in contention to win the final place in next season’s Championship with the help of Opta supercomputer predictions.
With Birmingham City and Wrexham already confirmed as heading up to the Championship next season, it’s time for the League One play-offs to determine who will join them.
Stockport County, Charlton Athletic, Wycombe Wanderers and Leyton Orient finished in the requisite places of England’s third tier when the music stopped. Here, we look at all four contenders to assess who might win the 2024-25 League One play-offs.
Stockport County
The historic rise of Wrexham in recent seasons has somewhat taken attention away from the arguably even more impressive progress made by Stockport.
Dave Challinor has guided the Hatters superbly since arriving in November 2021, taking them from the National League to the League One play-offs in just four seasons.
Challinor’s men finished third, with only the two promoted sides above them conceding fewer than their 42 goals against, and only Birmingham (84) scoring more than their 72 goals. The champions (71.6) were also the one side to have a higher expected goals total (xG) than Stockport (69.2), though County did boast the division’s highest non-penalty xG (63.7).
They were helped a lot by loanee Louie Barry in the first half of the campaign, with the Aston Villa man scoring 15 League One goals in just 23 appearances. In fact, the 21-year-old finished the campaign as Stockport’s top scorer ahead of Kyle Wootton (11 goals from 46 games) despite being recalled by Villa in January.
Teenage striker Benoný Andrésson has stepped in ably though since signing from Icelandic side KR in January, hitting four goals in 11 league appearances to help Wootton in attack. Isaac Olaofe (nine) and Will Collar (eight) have also chipped in with goals from time to time.
Challinor, a former centre-back, has made his team difficult to score against, too. Only Birmingham (348) faced fewer shots than Stockport (366) in League One this season.
They made the fourth-most high turnovers (331) in League One in 2024-25 and tried to be effective with the ball once they had won it, recording more shot-ending high turnovers (62) than any other team.
They come into the play-offs in good form, having won seven of their last eight league games (D1) and unbeaten since a 1-0 loss at Wrexham in March. They also haven’t lost at home since a 2-1 defeat at Edgeley Park against Mansfield Town on 4 January.
Charlton Athletic
It has been a season of two halves for Charlton.
After winning their first three games of the campaign, the Addicks only won three of their next 16 league outings (D6 L7) and manager Nathan Jones was seemingly under pressure.
However, Charlton won 16 of their final 22 games (D3 L3) to rise up the table in time to take them to the play-offs.
The goals of Matty Godden have certainly helped. The former Coventry City striker scored 18 goals in League One this season, including two in the final-day home win over Burton Albion. Only Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelman (21) and Birmingham’s Jay Stansfield (19) scored more in the regular season.
Conor Coventry (127) made more tackles than any other player in League One this season by at least 16, while only two players won possession more often than the Irish midfielder.
Like Stockport, Charlton have done well to make high turnovers count.
Although their 319 high turnovers only sees them rank eighth in the third tier this season, their eight goal-ending high turnovers puts them joint third.
They work hard to close down the opposition when out of possession, having recorded the second lowest opposition passes per defensive action average (PPDA – 9.7) behind only Birmingham (8.0).
The Addicks are also tricky to score past even if you’re able to find your way into their penalty area. Only Birmingham and Wrexham (both 28) conceded fewer goals from inside the box than Charlton (32) in League One this season.
Partly related to that, they conceded the second-lowest xG against in the division (40.8) behind just Birmingham (32.1). That defensive solidity could be crucial when it comes to the fine margins of the play-offs.
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It has largely been a successful season for Wycombe, who few anticipated to be challenging for promotion at the start of the campaign. In fact, the Opta supercomputer had them finishing ninth at that point.
But challenge they did, until they didn’t.
They lost their first two games before a run of 12 wins in 14 (D2) saw them challenging at the top of the table. Wycombe were fighting it out with Birmingham and Wrexham for much of the campaign, but a few stumbles late on saw them fall away.
Manager Matt Bloomfield leaving in January for Luton Town didn’t help matters, with the team in second place and just two points off Birmingham after 25 games at the time, though the Blues did have two games in hand.
Mike Dodds replaced him and kept things relatively steady, though Wycombe were unable to get back to the fantastic form from earlier in the season. They ultimately fell behind the top two, and a run of three losses to end the campaign saw them drop to fifth.
Someone whose form almost perfectly encapsulates the Chairboys’ recent slump is striker Richard Kone. He scored 16 goals in his first 28 appearances (21 starts) in the league this season, but managed just two in his last 13 games (11 starts), which coincided with Dodds’ arrival.
The Ivorian striker’s other numbers didn’t especially reduce, with his non-penalty xG per 90 minutes remaining largely the same (0.38 to 0.36) while his total shots per 90 slightly rose (3.2 to 3.4), but his shot conversion rate dropped from 25% to just 5.6% in that time.
Dodds will be hoping the 21-year-old can rediscover his form in the play-offs. Kone’s 18 league goals are at least 10 more than any other Wycombe player, with Daniel Udoh the next highest scorer on eight.
One other notable aspect of Wycombe’s recent defeats that will be somewhat troubling is that they all came against their fellow play-off participants, losing 4-0 at home to Charlton, 1-0 at Leyton Orient and 3-1 at home to Stockport.
Leyton Orient
In their first League One play-off campaign since the 2013-14 season when they lost to Rotherham United in the final, Leyton Orient are back for another go.
After losing their first four games of the season, though, you’d have done well to find anyone willing to back Orient to finish in the top six at the time.
Richie Wellens’ men only won two of their first 11 league games of 2024-25 (D2 L7), but from the start of December, they won 12 of 15 (D2 L1).
That was followed by a five-game losing streak across February and March, but Wellens’ side arrive in the play-offs in excellent form. They’ve won their last six league games, four of which came away from home, including an impressive 4-1 victory at Huddersfield Town on the final day to seal their place.
Crucial to their success has been scoring goals, with only Birmingham (72) racking up more non-penalty goals than Leyton Orient (71). Central to that has been Charlie Kelman, who top-scored in League One this season with 21 goals, just one of which came from the penalty spot.
He has benefitted from Orient also having the most effective player in the division creatively in Jamie Donley, who recorded the most assists in League One this season (10). Only two players created more chances in open play than the 20-year-old on loan from Tottenham Hotspur (53).
At the other end, another Tottenham loanee Josh Keeley has been exceptional in goal. The 21-year-old only conceded 33 goals from an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 45.2, meaning an average performing goalkeeper would have conceded at least 12 goals more than he has from the quality of shots faced. That is the highest positive differential in League One.
Orient are aggressive in winning possession back, with the second-most high turnovers in League One (364) this season behind Birmingham (375) and the most goal-ending high turnovers (10). They also had the fourth-lowest PPDA (10.8).
Who Will Win the League One Play-Offs?
Stockport go into the play-offs as the Opta supercomputer‘s favourites to go all the way. Challinor’s men reached the final in 53.7% of simulations, while they sealed promotion in 28%.
Charlton are expected to face the Hatters in the final at Wembley, reaching the showpiece game in 54.8% of sims, and earning promotion in 26.6%.
Perhaps surprisingly, but likely due to recent form, the supercomputer gives Leyton Orient a better chance of winning the play-offs than Wycombe, reaching England’s second tier for the first time since 1982 in 23.7% of sims. They made it to the final in 46.3%.
Wycombe will still be frustrated at missing out on automatic promotion but made up for it with victory at Wembley in 21.7% of simulations. They reached the final in 45.2%.
Stockport face Leyton Orient in the semi-finals, with both teams winning away from home in their two league meetings this season. Orient thrashed their hosts 4-1 in September, before the Hatters won 1-0 at Brisbane Road in February. The first leg takes place at Orient on Saturday.
The other semi sees Wycombe host Charlton in the first leg on Sunday, hoping to get revenge for that 4-0 thrashing at the hands of the Addicks last month. Charlton also won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the Valley in December.
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Who Will Win the 2024-25 League One Play-Offs? Opta Analyst.
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