Andy Farrell will reveal his British & Irish Lions squad to tour Australia in a ground-breaking public event at The O2 in London this Thursday afternoon.
In the 16 months since Farrell was appointed head coach he may have pored over everything from confidential GPS data on players’ rugby and physiological performance to testament from other coaches around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, to his plans for how the Lions will play and what to expect from their Wallaby opponents.
Those of us hanging on the much-anticipated selection can only guess at a lot of the above, but we can predict the main issues facing Farrell as we enter the final run-in, and take a last shot at the names who will be read out by the Lions’ chairman Ieuan Evans in front of 2,000 fans.
This is more a prediction of who Farrell will go for, as opposed to our personal preference – although to be completely objective about the Lions is frankly impossible.
If 37 is the squad number, then 21 forwards and 16 backs is a possible split.
Ellis Genge had a strong Six Nations with England (Photo: Getty)
As with every Lions selection, we have a mix of the most recent international form in the Six Nations (though obviously this does not include England’s exiles in France), and anything else Farrell deems pertinent.
Ellis Genge, for instance, has had worrying losses with his club Bristol Bears of late, when his body language has not been great, but he had a strong Six Nations and is an England vice-captain.
Some pundits will tell you Andrew Porter can’t scrummage straight and Genge can’t scrummage at all, while others say the opposite or like a bit of wily crookedness if the referee doesn’t cotton on.
Pierre Schoeman posted 51 carries in the Six Nations, Nicky Smith also carries hard with great footwork, Gareth Thomas is a good chop tackler, and Genge has been a backfield kick recipient for England in the past.
Rory Sutherland, Bevan Rodd, Fin Baxter and Cian Healy are other candidates.
Prediction: Ellis Genge (Eng), Andrew Porter (Ire), Pierre Schoeman (Sco).
Hooker
A great example of where it would be handy to be sure of Farrell’s Lions game plan.
An injury-affected Dewi Lake posted great numbers of involvements in his two brief Six Nations appearances, but he is an up-the-guts forward, not accustomed to the edge, unlike Dan Sheehan who can seem like an auxiliary wing, stepping away from line-outs to allow the actual wing James Lowe to make kicks that the speedy Sheehan will chase.
A serial try scorer, Sheehan has everything on his day, and the only question is how far his stock and others from Leinster and Ireland might have fallen.
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At 34, Jamie George is far from over the hill, having toured with the Lions in 2017 and 2021.
George has the credentials to captain this year’s Lions, either in midweek games, or as a kind of overall father figure of the whole shooting match, if Farrell unexpectedly goes against the more regularly predicted Maro Itoje and Caelan Doris, who will undergo shoulder surgery this week.
While sharing England time with Luke Cowan-Dickie in the Six Nations, George is the more reliable line-out thrower.
His compatriot Theo Dan offers Sheehan-like open-field wizardry, and Ronan Kelleher has rarely let Ireland down, while Dave Cherry, Elliot Dee, Gus McCarthy and Ewan Ashman are among the outside bets.
Prediction: Luke Cowan-Dickie (Eng), Jamie George (Eng), Dan Sheehan (Ire).
Tadhg Furlong has been the main man for so long, but he managed only 320 minutes in the Six Nations due to injury, and did not stand out in Leinster’s Champions Cup semi-final exit.
Furlong did, though, make 22 starts last season, and could argue a rest has been good for his touring prospects.
Zander Fagerson and Will Stuart had much stronger Six Nations form, while Finlay Bealham has his fans, Joe Heyes has been improving and Kyle Sinckler could be whistled up from Toulon in France.
Prediction: Zander Fagerson (Sco), Tadhg Furlong (Ire), Will Stuart (Eng).
Second row
Maro Itoje is Hugh Godwin’s choice to captain the squad (Photo: Getty)Itoje, Tadhg Beirne and Ollie Chessum look to be nailed-on picks, while leaving room for a big banger of a second row.
Fortunately, Joe McCarthy at 6ft 6ins and 17 st 8lbs was one of the Leinster players who left a good final impression last weekend, but George Martin has been injured of late, so Dave Ribbans of Toulon may have a shot.
Dafydd Jenkins was watched by Farrell in a recent Exeter club match, while other candidates include Scotland’s Scott Cummings, Grant Gilchrist and Sam Skinner – will assistant coach John Dalziel press their case? – and James Ryan (the captaincy favourite in early 2024), Iain Henderson, Will Rowlands, Jonny Gray and Jonny Hill, who is possibly the finest big lump on his best form, and toured in 2021.
Prediction: Tadhg Beirne (Ireland), Ollie Chessum (England), Maro Itoje (England, captain), Joe McCarthy (Ireland), Dafydd Jenkins (Wales).
Back row
It is tricky to subdivide this unit with complete validity, although the Lions should have a No 8 who is familiar with the set-piece demands, and the Six Nations front-runners are Doris, Jack Conan, Ben Earl, Jack Dempsey, Tom Willis and Taulupe Faletau.
The latter can still play like a dream, suited to Aussie hard grounds, but can he get through a full tour? Earl possesses such great versatility that he must go.
Then there is an array of flankers including the world-class Tom Curry who can do a job at eight, as can Matt Fagerson.
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The workaholic Jac Morgan stood out during a horrendous Six Nations for his Wales team, and deserves to tour, and other possible picks who were prominent to a greater or lesser degree in the Six Nations were Josh van der Flier, Ben Curry, Jamie Ritchie, Rory Darge, Jack Willis, Tommy Reffell, Aaron Wainwright, Chandler Cunningham-South and the 20-year-old bolter, Henry Pollock.
And what about Sam Underhill? The Bath man missed the Six Nations but when fit you can rely on him to tackle Wallabies all day long.
Farrell might view Beirne and his turnover threat as better suited to the back row, and Ryan Baird is another who doubles as lock and flanker.
Courtney Lawes is among the exiles in France who have not been playing Test rugby this season. Will Farrell see this as a weakness? Blimey, the back row is difficult.
Prediction: Tom Curry (Eng), Caelan Doris (Ire), Ben Earl (Eng), Courtney Lawes (Eng), Jac Morgan (Wal), Henry Pollock (Eng), Josh van der Flier (Ire).
A sigh of relief here, as the speculation narrows to the three clear ante-post favourites Jamison Gibson-Park, Alex Mitchell and Tomos Williams.
Or does it? Jack van Poortvliet has rediscovered his form in recent weeks, and Ben White is arguably more consistent than Williams in Tests.
Prediction: Jamison Gibson-Park (Ire), Alex Mitchell (Eng), Ben White (Sco).
Fly-half
Fin Smith has excelled for club and country in recent months (Photo: Getty)A debate that can rise, or descend, into the philosophical or even spiritual.
Finn Russell is arguably the best passer in the world, there is nothing wrong with his kicking and defence, and to question his temperament over a couple of missed kicks at Twickenham in the Six Nations is ridiculous as every fly-half has missed the sticks in big matches – no one is perfect.
We could do with a piece of critically important information, which is how Farrell sees his Test 23.
Will he go for a 6-2 bench, which means one scrum-half, always, and then just one other back?
In that case Blair Kinghorn, Tom Jordan or Marcus Smith might cover No 10, and it would marginalise more regular fly-halves such as Fin Smith – who otherwise is timing his run like a Derby winner surging from Tattenham Corner – and Sam Prendergast, Jack Crowley and George Ford.
A 5-3 split gives those fly-halves more of a chance, alongside fly-half/centre Owen Farrell, although he would be a pick based on character and a history of three tours, not current form.
Ford has been more impressive of late, but mostly on home turf, whereas Fin Smith has stood up to be counted away to Munster, Bulls and now Leinster.
Prediction: George Ford (Eng), Finn Russell (Sco), Fin Smith (Eng).
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Fin Smith or Sam Prendergast for Lions fly-half? The debate is settled
Read MoreWe need a fitness report on Sione Tuipulotu, the all-court Scotland centre and captain.
The trouble is, Tuipulotu hasn’t played since January due to a chest injury.
Ollie Lawrence is also out injured, but that still leaves a choice from Six Nations front-liners Huw Jones – whose Scotland combo with Tuipulotu has immense appeal – Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Tom Jordan.
Prediction: Bundee Aki (Ire), Huw Jones (Sco), Garry Ringrose (Ire), Sione Tuipulotu (Sco).
Back three
Selection here again depends on the unknown of how Farrell sees the positional make-up of his Test 23, plus a bit more unknown fitness news surrounding Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, the dynamic wing who dislocated his shoulder in December but might be ready in time to tour.
Two other wing selections look simple, with Tommy Freeman and James Lowe in persuasive form all season; Freeman has an incredible 15 tries in his last 10 appearances for England and Northampton Saints, and he can switch to centre if required.
Duhan van der Merwe has Test pedigree, while Elliot Daly returned with England in the Six Nations to show his value in multiple positions.
Then take your pick from wings including the electric Darcy Graham, Mack Hansen, Calvin Nash, Tom Roebuck and the maybe too quickly forgotten Josh Adams, and full-backs Blair Kinghorn, Hugo Keenan, Blair Murray and George Furbank (currently troubled by a broken arm).
And we end, perhaps aptly as he has been one of the most talked about players of recent years, with Marcus Smith.
Such a talent, but has his switch from fly-half to full-back by England increased or diminished his Lions tour chances?
Prediction: Elliot Daly (Eng), Tommy Freeman (Eng), Darcy Graham (Sco), Hugo Keenan (Ire), Blair Kinghorn (Sco), James Lowe (Ire).
Hugh Godwin’s 37-man British & Irish Lions squad
Back three (6): Elliot Daly (Eng), Tommy Freeman (Eng), Darcy Graham (Sco), Hugo Keenan (Ire), Blair Kinghorn (Sco), James Lowe (Ire).
Centres (4): Bundee Aki (Ire), Huw Jones (Sco), Garry Ringrose (Ire), Sione Tuipulotu (Sco).
Fly-half (3): George Ford (Eng), Finn Russell (Sco), Fin Smith (Eng).
Scrum-half (3): Jamison Gibson-Park (Ire), Alex Mitchell (Eng), Ben White (Sco).
Props (6): Ellis Genge (Eng), Andrew Porter (Ireland), Pierre Schoeman (Scotland), Zander Fagerson (Sco), Tadhg Furlong (Ire), Will Stuart (Eng).
Hooker (3): Luke Cowan-Dickie (Eng), Jamie George (Eng), Dan Sheehan (Ire).
Second row (5): Tadhg Beirne (Ireland), Ollie Chessum (England), Maro Itoje (England, captain), Joe McCarthy (Ireland), Dafydd Jenkins (Wales).
Back row (7): Tom Curry (Eng), Caelan Doris (Ire), Ben Earl (Eng), Courtney Lawes (Eng), Jac Morgan (Wal), Henry Pollock (Eng), Josh van der Flier (Ire).
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