Ahead of Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, we’re breaking down each matchup and revealing our TRACR projection model’s pick.
“Anything can happen” isn’t just something hockey people say. It’s proven to be true in the world of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The NHL is the least predictable of any of the four major sports come postseason time.
No lead in a game is safe, no series lead is safe and playoff seeds can be thrown out when an opposing goaltender gets hot. Teams have come back from an 3-0 series deficit four times in NHL history, but only once in the MLB playoffs and zero times in 159 chances in the NBA.
And though all four division winners won their first-round matchups for the second year in a row after only two survived their series with wild-card teams in 2023, the NHL-best Winnipeg Jets stood just two minutes from being eliminated until hockey happened.
Down 3-1 late in the third period of Game 7 against the St. Louis Blues, Vladislav Nametnikov scored with 1:56 remaining to get the Jets within one before Cole Perfetti tied the game with just three seconds left to force overtime. The Stanley Cup title favorites (per our projection model) survived when Adam Lowry put home the winner in the second overtime.
YOU COULDN’T WRITE IT ANY BETTER pic.twitter.com/hfUkR4bXHm
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) May 5, 2025So will things things continue to go all hockey wild in the second round?
Our projection model gives us data-backed predictions for which playoff teams continue to march on to the conference finals. The model is based on each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule, and more.
TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both offense and defense to calculate how many goals a team is expected to score and allow each game. It then compares these values to the league-average club (lower is better for defense).
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Eastern Conference
Florida Panthers (A3) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (A1)
Regular-Season Record: Panthers 47-31-4/Leafs 52-26-4 Regular-Season Series: Panthers 3-1 Offensive TRACR Rank: Panthers 14th/Leafs 15th Defensive TRACR: Panthers No. 2/Leafs No. 3 Overall TRACR: Panthers No. 4/Leafs 10th Projected Winner (Win Probability): Panthers 52.1%Trending: The Panthers won three of their four games against the Maple Leafs this season, winning both games played in Sunrise and splitting their two games in Toronto. The Panthers beat the Leafs in five games in the second round of the 2023 playoffs, the teams’ only previous postseason matchup. The last four games were decided by one goal (two in OT).
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs. Washington Capitals (M1)
Regular-Season Record: Hurricanes 47-30-5/Caps 51-22-9 Regular-Season Series: Hurricanes 2-1-1 Offensive TRACR: Hurricanes No. 5/Caps No. 3 Defensive TRACR: Hurricanes 12th/Caps 11th Overall TRACR: Hurricanes No. 8/Caps No. 5 Projected Winner: Caps 53.7%Trending: Washington has scored at least three goals in each of its five games this postseason. It is the Capitals’ longest streak of games with three or more goals in one playoff year since their final seven games in 2018 when they won the Stanley Cup. Alex Ovechkin has totaled five goals and two assists in his last five meetings with the Hurricanes, who scored five times in each of their last two games of their playoff series against the New Jersey Devils.
Western Conference
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Winnipeg Jets (C1)
Regular-Season Record: Jets 56-22-4/Stars 50-26-6 Regular-Season Series: Jets 3-1 Offensive TRACR: Jets 12th/Stars 11th Defensive TRACR: Jets No. 1/Stars 15th Overall TRACR: Jets No. 1/Stars 12th Projected Winner: Jets 59.7%Trending: Kyle Connor has tallied 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in the Jets’ seven home playoff games over the last two years, with at least one point in each game. Connor has scored only two points (one goal, one assist) in Winnipeg’s five road games over the last two playoff years. He had four goals and an assist in his last two regular-season games versus Dallas (one home, one away).
Edmonton Oilers (P3) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (P1)
Regular-Season Record: Oilers 48-29-5/Knights 50-22-10 Regular-Season Series: 2-2 Offensive TRACR: Oilers No. 6/Knights No. 7 Defensive TRACR: Oilers 17th/Knights No. 7 Overall TRACR: Oilers 11th/Knights No. 7 Projected Winner: Knights 55.0%Trending: Connor McDavid has scored 10 or more points in eight of the Oilers’ 10 playoff series over the last four years. McDavid, however, only had one assist in his three games against the Golden Knights during the 2024-25 regular season.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
NHL Playoff Predictions: Which Teams Will Take Another Step Toward the Stanley Cup Final? Opta Analyst.
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