5 numbers that the anti-Kalen DeBoer crowd will conveniently ignore ...Middle East

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but I’ll say it anyway.

Kalen DeBoer isn’t getting fired in Year 2.

He’s not. Despite the lazy takes that’ll surface in the offseason or even into the season if he — wait for it — loses a game, the Alabama football coach isn’t getting the boot in Year 2 unless it’s an unprecedented collapse in Tuscaloosa. I’m not banking on that for a team that’s won at least 9 games in each of the last 17 seasons, especially after Ryan Grubb reunited with DeBoer.

The anti-DeBoer crowd would like have everyone assume that the Vanderbilt and Oklahoma losses were signs that he’s in over his head as Nick Saban‘s replacement. The number “9” is the number that the anti-DeBoer crowd will cling to because 2024 saw Alabama finish with its worst win total since Year 1 of the Saban era back in 2007.

But there are some numbers that the anti-DeBoer crowd should probably not ignore:

0.833

What is that number, you ask? That’s DeBoer’s win percentage vs. AP Top-25 teams in 5 seasons as an FBS head coach. That’s No. 1 among active FBS coaches with at least 15 games vs. ranked opponents. His 15-3 mark vs. AP Top-25 competition wasn’t just the byproduct of a flukey team, either. He did that at 3 different programs during his 5 seasons as an FBS coach, including 2024 when he posted a 3-1 mark vs. the AP Top 25.

That’s an important box for DeBoer to check for all the obvious reasons, but in the 12-team Playoff era wherein there’s more grace for a 10-2 season, that’s more important than ever. Making the field is one thing. Having a proven track record vs. elite competition — something that most coaches are still working to establish 5 years into being an FBS head coach — is hard to come by. Only 7 active FBS coaches having a winning record vs. AP Top-25 teams (min. 15 games), and DeBoer is one of them … by a lot.

Active FBS head coaches w/ best winning % vs. AP Top 25 (min. 15 games):10. Chris Klieman .4719. Josh Heupel .4808. Brian Kelly .5007. Lincoln Riley .5436. Dabo Swinney .5885. Dan Lanning .6254. Kirby Smart .6983. Marcus Freeman .7002. Ryan Day .7191. Kalen DeBoer .833

And just in case you were wondering, DeBoer is 6-1 vs. AP Top-10 teams. He’s got more wins in those matchups than Lane Kiffin (5), James Franklin (4) and Mario Cristobal (3), all of whom have been FBS head coaches for at least 12 years.

0

That’s the number of wins that Dan Lanning (0-3) Steve Sarkisian (0-2), Brian Kelly (0-1) and Kirby Smart (0-1) have combined against DeBoer. Zero. Zip. Nada. All 4 of those guys are considered top-10 coaches in the sport who could become yearly Playoff participants in the 12-team era, and DeBoer is 7-0 against them. Some will pretend that Brian Kelly doesn’t belong in that group, even though he has 7 consecutive 9-win seasons, but what’s undeniable is that those are highly regarded coaches who have all failed to beat a DeBoer-coached team. And you could argue that, perhaps with the exception of the 2022 Texas Bowl, all of those games had significant stakes.

DeBoer did that damage in the last 3 seasons and with 2 different programs. Even more impressive? He won those 7 games — all of which came vs. AP Top-25 teams — in 7 different places:

Not bad for a guy from South Dakota.

28.1

Take away non-offensive scores and that was how many points Alabama averaged per SEC game in Year 1 of the DeBoer era. Why bring that up? Well, that was No. 1 in the SEC in 2024. Yes, it was a down year for SEC offenses, and yes, it was a down year for DeBoer’s offense based on his track record. But think about that. Nobody in the 16-team SEC averaged more points per conference game than the Tide offense if you take away non-offensive scores (which you always should).

Think that was flukey? If you look at yards/play vs. SEC competition, DeBoer’s offense finished No. 2 in the conference. Mind you, that was with Jalen Milroe regressing in the latter half of SEC play. The Tide’s passing game was a disaster by season’s end, it didn’t exactly have a vintage ground game, and it still hit 27 points in 6 of 8 SEC games.

That should be considered a floor season for the DeBoer offense. It wasn’t an ideal fit in his scheme, and yet it still did things that had plenty of success against SEC offenses.

17.4

That’s how many points per game that the Alabama defense allowed per game. Why is that significant? Well, it was the best mark by an Alabama defense since 2017. That’s right. DeBoer’s controversial hire of Kane Wommack as his defensive coordinator yielded the Tide’s best scoring defense in 7 years.

To recap, Alabama failed to post a mark that good in the final 6 years of the Saban era (2018-23). Some will blame that all on Pete Golding … who just led Ole Miss to the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense in his second season in Oxford. Alternatively, some in the anti-DeBoer crowd will just dismiss that 17.4 points/game allowed mark because the majority of Alabama’s defense was still developed by Saban. That’s fine.

But at the same time, even the most optimistic DeBoer supporter could’ve never predicted that Alabama would prove defensively, much less have its best scoring defense since 2017.

60 million

That’s how many reasons that Alabama AD Greg Byrne has to not fire DeBoer in Year 2. At the end of 2025, DeBoer will still be owed $60 million from his original 8-year, $87 million contract, 90% of which is guaranteed.

If your response to that is “but what about Jimbo Fisher?” my response to that is ” … what about Jimbo Fisher?” Like, the guy who got 6 years to show that he could turn A&M into a championship contender, and he turned in 1 single top-10 finish and 0 9-win regular seasons? That guy? That guy got 3 times as long as the people in the anti-DeBoer crowd think the Alabama coach is getting.

Byrne knew that Saban’s successor would define his legacy. If you think he’s about to admit a $60 million mistake because of an 8-4 season, you’re crazy. Would it be a major disappointment if DeBoer missed the Playoff in consecutive seasons? You bet. This is a no-excuses offense with Grubb now on board and defensively, there’s no reason why the Tide shouldn’t boast an even better mark than that aforementioned 17.4 points/game allowed last year.

We can sit here and talk about Alabama having zero tolerance for losing football, but we can’t forget that Gus Malzahn still owns the second-richest buyout ever paid for a coach at $21.5 million. To think that DeBoer is on the brink of getting nearly 3 times that much money at the end of Year 2 is a different level of dumb.

Nobody else should need to hear the words “Kalen DeBoer isn’t getting fired in 2025.”

5 numbers that the anti-Kalen DeBoer crowd will conveniently ignore Saturday Down South.

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