We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League match at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Will the new champions continue their superb form?
Chelsea vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights
Liverpool, freshly minted as Premier League champions, are surprisingly underdogs, according to the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 31.9% win probability. Chelsea have picked up 17 points in their last eight Premier League matches, having collected just nine points from their previous 10 beforehand. After their 2-1 win in October, Liverpool are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since their title-winning 2019-20 campaign.A week on from thrashing Tottenham Hotspur 5-1 to clinch the Premier League title, Liverpool are back in action on Sunday against another London club.
The newly-crowned champions may head to Stamford Bridge with something of a hangover, though Arne Slot’s team should still be confident of getting another win on the board in what has been a sensational top-flight campaign.
Chelsea will be looking for a win to boost their hopes of a top-five finish and qualifying for the UEFA Champions League, but that will be easier said than done.
This will be Chelsea’s seventh Premier League game against a side already crowned champions, the most of any side. They have only won one of the previous six (D2 L3), beating Manchester United 1-0 in 2012-13, while one of their defeats was a 5-3 reverse against Liverpool at Anfield in July 2020.
Enzo Maresca’s team, however, have picked up form in recent weeks. Chelsea have won 17 points from their last eight Premier League matches (W5 D2 L1), having collected just nine points from their previous 10 beforehand (W2 D3 L5).
They also hammered Djurgården 4-1 on Thursday to put one foot firmly into the final of the UEFA Conference League.
Maresca has gone with youth this season, and perhaps that inexperience is what hampered the Blues when they were viewed as potential title contenders prior to Christmas.
Chelsea have not used a single player over the age of 27 in a Premier League match this season, with this run of 34 games the longest by a side in Premier League history. The previous longest had been a run of only six by Liverpool in April/May 2000.
But the scale of the task facing Chelsea cannot be underestimated.
Liverpool have not lost any of their last 20 Premier League matches in the month of May (W16 D4), though their last defeat was at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in 2018.
The Reds have averaged 2.41 points per game in the league this season. In only three of his eight full seasons in charge did Slot’s predecessor Jürgen Klopp average more points per game than Liverpool have so far this term – in 2021-22 (2.42), 2018-19 (2.55), and when winning the title in 2019-20 (2.60).
Slot is the fifth Premier League boss to win the title in his maiden season in the competition, not counting the inaugural campaign. He has followed in the footsteps of José Mourinho (Chelsea, 2004-05), Carlo Ancelotti (Chelsea, 2009-10), Manuel Pellegrini (Man City, 2013-14) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea, 2016-17).
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 30 Premier League matches since a 1-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest in September. The only side to have a longer scoring run within a single campaign was Arsenal in the 2001-02 campaign, who found the net in all 38 games.
And though the contributions of the likes of Alexis Mac Allister, Luis Díaz, Cody Gakpo, Dominik Szoboszlai, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk and Alisson won’t go ignored, it has been the Mohamed Salah show for much of the campaign.
Salah has scored 28 league goals and has a further 18 assists in 2024-25, and needs just one goal or assist to equal the record for goal involvements in a Premier League season, held by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals, 13 assists in both instances).
He also needs just one more goal to equal the record for goals scored aged 30 or older in a single Premier League season, which was set by Didier Drogba for Chelsea back in 2009-10 (29).
The Egyptian was unable to establish himself during his spell at Chelsea, though the Blues have form for letting players go only to then see them become world class elsewhere (Kevin De Bruyne, anyone?). Salah has shown Chelsea what they have been missing, though. In 14 league games against his old club, he has contributed to nine goals, scoring five and laying on four assists.
Not that Chelsea are shy of attacking talent, of course.
Nicolas Jackson snapped his scoreless streak with the winner against Everton last weekend, and grabbed two more in Europe on Thursday night, while Cole Palmer is always capable of the spectacular, albeit he has not netted a league goal since 15 January.
Meanwhile, only three players have created more chances in the Premier League this season than Enzo Fernandez (73). The only Argentinians to create more in a season record (since 2003-04) are Emiliano Buendia in 2019-20 for Norwich (83) and Erik Lamela in 2015-16 for Spurs (75).
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After their 2-1 win in October, Liverpool are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since their title-winning 2019-20 campaign.
Slot could become only the third Reds boss to win both of his first two league games against Chelsea in charge of the club, after Bill Shankly and Roy Evans.
Chelsea are winless in their last 10 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D7 L3), only once before going longer without a win over the Reds (11 from 1985 to 1990).
Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is actually backing the Blues in this one, though do expect it to be a tight contest, with the chance of a draw coming in at 24.8%.
Chelsea came out on top in 43.3% of the data-led sims, while Liverpool won 31.9%.
It should be noted that Slot did say at his pre-match press conference on Friday that some players who have not had much time on the pitch this season will play a part in their final four games, though did rule out wholesale changes.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction Opta Analyst.
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