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It’s Wednesday. Have you seen ? this wild MLB catch? It’s all over my social media feeds.
In today's issue:
Economy shrinks in first GDP report of year New polling: Trump’s approval is underwater Trump blames Biden for stock market weakness Senate GOP forced to back or buck Trump tariffs? NEWS THIS MORNING
Economy shrinks amid uncertainty over tariffs. Trump says ‘be patient’:
This morning, after the conclusion of President Trump’s first 100 days, the country awoke to a new metric covering much of his early time in office — and it’s not particularly glowing.
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.3 percent during the first three months of the year amid uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs.
For comparison, the GDP was up 2.4 percent during the last quarter of 2024. This is the steepest decline since early 2022. Economists had expected a slight gain rather than a drop.
Yes, but: The figures aren't as clear-cut as the topline number suggests. This number likely overstates how bad things are, analysts say, because imports surged ahead of many tariffs being implemented.
The Hill’s Sylvan Lane explains: “The first-quarter import surge took roughly 5 percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, according to the Commerce Department, washing out nearly 4 percentage points from domestic investment and roughly 1 percentage point from consumer spending.”
Wednesday’s GDP report “probably overstates the economy’s weakness, but the economy’s weak,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, told The Wall Street Journal. He pointed to "slower consumer spending and the decline in federal government spending in the first quarter."
A decline in consumer sentiment in April "doesn’t lend confidence that they’re going to hang tough here," he said. "If the administration can’t find an off-ramp on the tariffs soon…then I think we’re going to see a lot more negative GDP numbers dead ahead, and ultimately job losses," Zandi added. (WSJ)
The stock market is another indicator of how things are going: The stock market fell this morning. The S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent, the Dow fell by 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.4 percent.
Trump is trying to move the blame: “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers,” Trump posted this morning on Truth Social, telling Americans to “BE PATIENT!!!” ?Trump’s full post
?️ Follow today’s live blog
A few things to know:
1. This GDP data covers January, February and March. It doesn’t factor in the hefty reciprocal tariffs that Trump announced on the infamous April 2 “Liberation Day.” However, the market fears were reflected pre-April, so it isn’t completely irrelevant.
2. The data is messy: The New York Times argues the data is misleading because of how the government adjusted for a surge in imports to get ahead of the incoming tariffs.
3. The GDP — gross *domestic* product — does not include imports. Imports are subtracted from all goods and services sold in the U.S.
Happening now — a meeting of the MAGA minds:
President Trump is holding a Cabinet meeting with his top advisers. He kicked it off with a quip about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom he described as his “least controversial person” on his Cabinet. Lol.
More highlights:
He blamed Biden: Trump doubled down on blaming former President Biden for the stock market troubles. “That’s Biden, that’s not Trump,” he said.
On China: “I know that China is doing very poorly right now, just saw some reports coming out. And I don’t want that to happen to China,” Trump said. “I am not happy, I want China to do well. I want every country to do well.”
Tidbit: “Gulf of America” hats have been placed around the room. ? Photo
And on the 101st day, we look at the polls:
A flurry of new polls released this morning, providing a window into how voters view President Trump taking an axe to the status quo.
? New polling: A new Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) poll for NewsNation shows Trump is 12 points under water. Just 44 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, while 56 percent of voters disapprove. That’s particularly unusual for a president’s first few months in office when optimism and goodwill are generally at their highest.
^ Keep in mind: This poll is roughly on par with DDHQ’s polling average of Trump’s performance.
Other new polls:
CNN polling on immigration: Most Americans think Trump has gone too far in his deportations, believe his immigration policies haven’t made the U.S. safer AND that the deportations are unlawful, according to a new CNN poll. Reuters/Ipsos polling on the economy: Trump’s approval on the economy is lower than at *any point* during his first or second term, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos survey. His approval dropped to 36 percent, and his disapproval is up to 56 percent. Pew polling on Republicans: 54 percent of Republican respondents want Democrats to push back on Trump’s policies, according to a new Pew Research Center poll. This is keeping Republicans up at night: The GOP has been very loyal to the president, but these tanking approval numbers are making them nervous as they look ahead to the midterms. The Hill’s Amie Parnes spoke with Republican operatives who say Trump *needs* to stop with the turbulence on tariffs and instead focus on what got him elected — the economy. Read Parnes’s reporting: ‘Trump’s sagging poll numbers become a concern for GOP’➤ FOR YOUR RADAR:
NewsNation is hosting a town hall event with Trump tonight at 8 p.m. I’ll be interested to see what he says about this new polling.
You can watch the town hall at TheHill.com and follow live coverage throughout the night.
➤ MORE READS:
The New York Times: Behind Trump’s Deal to Deport Venezuelans to El Salvador’s Most Feared Prison
The Washington Post: How did Trump’s first 100 days impact your 401(k)? It’s time to look.
Politico: Inside the trade war: Foreign diplomats reveal state of play with White House
The Atlantic: Something Alarming Is Happening to the Job Market
➤ TIDBITS:
Oof: Check out ?this week’s cover of The New Yorker.
This is so wholesome: First daughter Ivanka Trump ? shared a video of her son Theo playing the piano for his grandfather, the president.
What Trump really thought of the Signal group chat fiasco: The Atlantic’s Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer describe their discussions with Trump over the group chat a journalist was accidentally added into. Basically, Trump considers the story a success because it defined the news cycle. ? Watch the clip
⏱️ON CAPITOL HILL
A very meaningful but meaningless vote:
Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are forcing a vote as early as today to scrap President Trump’s tariffs.
Why it’s meaningless: Even if it passes the Senate, it would be dead on arrival in the House. It’s nonbinding.
Why it’s meaningful: Republicans have been feeling very uneasy over Trump’s turbulent tariff war. This forces Republicans to go on record to either back the hefty tariffs or buck the president.
Read Al Weaver’s reporting: ‘Senate GOP faces key test over Trump tariff policy’
➤ FUN FACT:
Apparently, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is renting a home from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).
COMING UP
The House and Senate are in. President Trump is in Washington. (All times Eastern)
2 p.m.: Trump participates in a swearing-in ceremony for the ambassador to the U.K.
4 p.m.: Trump delivers remarks on “Investing in America.” ? Livestream
5:15 p.m.: First and last House votes. ?Today’s agenda
8 p.m.: Trump participates in a NewsNation town hall.
10:45 p.m.: Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Emerge gala. This is her first big speech since leaving office. ?Livestream
Thursday: A nationwide protest is expected on Trump’s “war on working people.”
? INTERNET BUZZ
? Celebrate: Today is National Bubble Tea Day.
?️ I’m here for the full play-by-play : A massive fight broke out on a Carnival Cruise. Now, 24 people are on the “do not sail” list.
? Craving some existential fear about AI?: The Wall Street Journal’s Joanna Stern writes that she recorded everything she said for three months. AI then created to-do lists, summaries of conversations and as Stern writes, “and a slightly terrifying glimpse of the future.” ? Read about her experience
? A runaway kangaroo in Alabama, you say?: A kangaroo was spotted ?hopping down a highway in Alabama.
? AND FINALLY ...
To close out this edition, let’s take a moment to appreciate Donut the corgi. “We Rate Dogs” gives Donut a well-deserved 13/10.
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Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Warning signs flash for Trump )
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