Can Manchester United salvage a poor season by reaching the UEFA Europa League final? We look ahead to Thursday’s semi-final first leg at San Mamés with our Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United prediction and preview.
Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights
Athletic Bilbao are favourites with the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 48.8% chance of winning the game. The La Liga side won both meetings when these teams clashed in the UEFA Europa League in 2012. Bruno Fernandes has provided six goal contributions in the semi-finals of this competition.A trip to Bilbao to face Athletic Club is a very tough assignment for Manchester United. Ernesto Valverde’s side are unbeaten in their previous 10 home games, winning seven of them.
They have been perfect on their own patch in the UEFA Europa League this season, securing six wins from six matches with an aggregate scoreline of 14-2. The last side to win seven home games in one campaign was Ajax in 2016-17.
Yet as much as United are suffering their worst ever Premier League season, this competition has offered them respite from their domestic struggles.
They are the only club who haven’t lost a match in the 2024-25 Europa League, albeit they have only won twice on the road with neither victory occurring in the knockout phase. Even so, their 12 games without defeat is their longest run in major European competition since going 15 in a row between November 2016 and October 2017.
Without this record, perhaps Ruben Amorim’s tenure with the club might have ended already, as his Man Utd side have lost 11 of their 23 Premier League matches. Yet his eight games without losing in Europe means he possesses the longest unbeaten start in major European competitions with the Red Devils since Alex Ferguson went 11 games before suffering defeat.
A big part of United’s success in Europe this season is thanks to their goalscoring record. This was very apparent in the previous round, where they came within minutes of losing 4-2 at home to 10-man Lyon. Very late goals from Bruno Fernandes, Kobbie Mainoo and Harry Maguire saw them win 5-4.
The remarkable recovery took the Red Devils’ total to 28 Europa League goals this season, their most since scoring 34 in 2020-21, a club record in a major European season. The tally shows their 27 league goals for Amorim in a very bad light.
The United manager probably wishes his side could play every game in Europe. They have had the most shots (222) and touches in the opposition box (458) of any side in this season’s competition.
Alejandro Garnacho leads the squad for both metrics, though it is Fernandes who is likelier to be their key man here. He has been involved in 29 goals in 31 Europa League appearances in the knockout stages (with 17 goals and 12 assists), which is a record.
The United captain also has three goals and three assists in his three games at the semi-final stage, with only Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Lacazette and Kevin Gameiro (all seven) having made more contributions in this round.
Fernandes may need to deliver once again. Amad Diallo remains out, while Joshua Zirkzee recently saw his campaign ended early by a thigh injury. Amorim must also make do without the likes of Diogo Dalot, Matthijs de Ligt and Lisandro Martínez.
The home side’s sole reported injury is a big one. Oihan Sancet only lasted 22 minutes of their last match, a 1-0 win over Las Palmas last Wednesday. The 25-year-old is the joint-fourth top scorer in La Liga this season, with 15 goals, though he only has two in this competition.
Athletic Club’s key men in the 2024-25 Europa League have been the Williams brothers, Iñaki and Nico, who have five goals apiece.
The latter has had a hand in at least one goal in all six home Europa League appearances this season, recording seven contributions in total. Only three players (Giuseppe Rossi, Guillaume Hoarau and Ciro Immobile) have scored or assisted in seven home games in a row.
Athletic Club have reached their third European semi-final and they progressed from the previous two: in 1976-77 against RWD Molenbeek in the UEFA Cup and 2011-12 against Sporting CP in the UEFA Europa League.
Having managed Barcelona in their infamous 4-3 aggregate loss to Liverpool in the 2018-19 UEFA Champions League semi-finals, Valverde will take nothing for granted whatever the outcome here. Nonetheless, Athletic Club’s formidable record at San Mamés means they will be confident of putting themselves in a strong position in the tie on Thursday.
Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
These clubs met in their first ever European campaigns, way back in 1956-57. Man Utd erased a 5-3 first-leg defeat with a 3-0 victory at Old Trafford. They were unable to get past the unstoppable Real Madrid of the 1950s in the semi-finals though.
Their only competitive meetings since occurred in the round of 16 in this competition in 2012. Marcelo Bielsa’s Athletic Bilbao won 3-2 at Old Trafford in the first leg, then sealed their passage with a 2-1 victory in front of their own fans. They eventually reached the final, only to suffer a 3-0 loss to Atlético Madrid.
These clubs then played out a 1-1 draw in a friendly two years ago, with Facundo Pellistri equalising for United in the final minute. Aitor Paredes, who may feature here for Athletic Club, was sent off in the second half.
Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Athletic Bilbao to head to Manchester next week with a lead.
Its 10,000 simulations of the match resulted in a home win 48.8% of the time. The other two possible results were split almost evenly between a draw (25.7%) and a victory for Manchester United (25.5%).
None of the four UEFA Europa League semi-final first legs in the last two seasons saw more than two goals. This game should be close.
Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Prediction Opta Analyst.
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