It wasn’t just Canada’s capital-L Liberal Party lustily cheering the election of Mark Carney over his right-wing opponent, Pierre Poilievre, overnight. For this is a rare moment of elation for Donald Trump foes inside and outside of Canada.
The dapper former Bank of England governor has taken a party which had fallen out of favour with voters after three terms and in the economic doldrums to a resounding victory on the wings of anti-Trump indignation. He did so by confronting the arrogance of his mighty neighbour, in a campaign opposing the US President on tariffs – and squaring up to a repeated riff, bordering on threat, to make Canada a part of the US.
Carney – whom I have known in several of his incarnations from politics to bank governor (once in Canada, once in the UK) and climate finance guru – defies his technocratic image by being an encyclopaedic fan of The Clash. He also played the Canadian rap classic “Time to Win” at rallies.
In a period when many G7 countries have opted to play for time with the US President or, as with Keir Starmer’s government, bank on avoiding conflicts with a turbulent White House in the hope of leveraging advantages in the end, Carney opted for forthright fightback, underlining his country’s sovereignty, in several speeches. This approach gladdened a lot of hearts in Europe, too: ditch conflict-avoidance and lay out a firm, rather than squelchy, subservience.
In a quirk of political history, however, it was also Trump wot helped win it for the Liberals, who saw off a charismatic rival, Pierre Poilievre of Canada’s Conservatives, who lost his own seat in Carleton, Ontario.
Poilievre had appeared as the coming man in the age of noisy populists who channeled public resentment at out of touch elites, but found himself undermined by Trump’s barrage of social posts about Canada’s shortcomings and status. He ended up brusquely asking a US President he often resembled in style and tone to “stay out of our election”.
Relations between America and Canada are always sensitive to the relative might and size of the US. The combination of the recent tariff splurge and a campaign by Trump – partly teasing but relentless and disrespectful in the eyes of many Canadians – for them to join the US as a “cherished” 51st state sparked a backlash. This gave Carney the platform he needed to escape the pigeonhole of being too closely associated with high finance and connect with the ire of voters stirred up by tariffs and taunts.
Really, there is no likely way that the US could annex Canada. But by taking the threat of doing so seriously, Carney added votes on the back of national pride, telling his final rally: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never, ever happen.”
In the end, the Liberals fell just short of an absolute majority, which considering the hole in which they found themselves under Justin Trudeau in a lacklustre final term, is an impressive result. The majority will be reached by adding seats from two small parties.
Tensions and scandals plagued the last government, amplified by policy failures. There is a housing shortage for average and new earners, a proliferation of drug infestation in cities as the Fentanyl crisis grips West Coast urban centres, and cost of living crises are biting into the middle class.
The problems remain, so does the Liberal government – just with a new figurehead. Carney faces the challenge of dealing with a US President who has over three years to go and is still dangling tariffs towards Canada on key industries, including a 25 per cent charge on cars and car parts.
In his acceptance speech, he pivoted carefully towards talking about the need for Canada to build a new relationship with the US “as two sovereign nations”, while emphasising that he is seeking dialogue and ultimately a deal, not a long and damaging freeze with Washington.
For all the utility of Trump-averse rhetoric to bring out the voters, the new man at the helm is sensible enough to know that a degree of emollience after the push-back is useful.
square ANNE MCELVOY
Trump's blue suit screamed for attention - just like he wanted
Read MoreA whirlwind campaign after Trudeau lost the confidence of his cabinet means Canadians need to get to know a new leader who has been out of the country for many years. As one commentator puts it, Carney “knows Oxfordshire (where he often spent weekends in the UK) better than Ontario”. That is not strictly true, but the point reminds us that for many in his homeland, Carney is regarded as a re-import who needs to establish himself as more than a lucky opportunist in politics.
Certainly, he has coveted the job for some time. I remember asking him in an interview when he was going to try to take Trudeau’s job and him batting it away, saying he was happy to serve the finance ministry as an economic advisor – only to then roll his eyes afterwards and add: “I mean you didn’t really expect me to answer that?” This got the point of his political appetite across without being caught out in a disloyalty.
It was indeed “time to win” and Carney celebrated by rocking out in the way of centrist dads in some style. The day job will be a rather more mundane slog to take the edge off damaging trade levies, improve a faltering economic legacy and balance cuts he has pledged to carbon taxes with incentives for greener growth. There are more difficult decisions ahead on whether to reopen oil and gas drilling and a lagging defence budget.
Having roasted Brexit repeatedly and without success when he was in London, Carney surely knows that those of both the small and large L persuasion have got a lot wrong about the appeal of unorthodox politics. He has seen off a silly provocation towards Canada’s independence with aplomb.
But the sub-text is that he also needs a deal as “two sovereign nations” who would confront crises “with overwhelming, positive force”. That is code for getting back to the negotiating table: a reminder that even for a punk PM, campaigning in rap poetry is followed by governing in prose.
Anne McElvoy is co-host of the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast with Politico/Sky
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