The King is walking a diplomatic tightrope between Trump and Canada ...Middle East

The King may be unable to heal his own family rift but now he is preparing for an even tougher diplomatic challenge.

In the coming weeks and months Charles faces a complex schedule of inward and overseas visits, possibly now including a trip to Canada and hosting Donald Trump at Windsor Castle, that will test his fabled soft power and ability to bring people together.

The US President, who has threatened to annex Canada and turn it into the 51st state, threatens Britain’s prosperity and security as well with his support for Russia and imposition of tariffs but remains a long-time fan of the Royal Family and friend of Charles.

It will be up to the politicians to sort out the policy details but they hope Charles can help set the tone and ease the trade war by walking a diplomatic tightrope, championing the competing interests of Britain and Canada, where he is also head of state, while charming Trump.

Queen Elizabeth II with Donald and Melania Trump at Windsor Castle during the US President’s visit to the UK in 2018 (Photo: Steve Parsons/AFP)

Officials on both sides of the pond are still trying to nail down the details on when Trump will visit the UK. Last week the President told reporters in the Oval Office that Britain was looking to host him in September.

This is a possibility but nothing has been agreed yet. It remains unclear whether a mooted trip to Windsor Castle then would be the second state visit he was offered by the King via Sir Keir Starmer in February or a private preliminary meeting originally envisaged to take place at Balmoral or Dumfries House, two of the monarch’s residences in Scotland.

Separately, a state visit by the King and Queen to the US next year to mark the 250th anniversary of its independence is still under discussion, as Starmer seeks to salvage what he can from the special relationship.

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But with the Atlantic alliance under pressure and Trump’s America no longer considered a reliable ally by many in Whitehall, Britain is also anxious to strengthen even further its post-Brexit ties with its closest European neighbours. So the King is also juggling an invitation to France’s president Emmanuel Macron to come to the UK for a state visit. Despite reports that Macron is coming at the end of May, The i Paper understands that is likely to happen later.

Instead, the King could be in Canada then. Amid Canadian outrage over Trump’s aggressive language towards America’s northern neighbour, the 76-year-old monarch has been quietly signalling his support for the country, ahead of its general election on Monday.

All will become clearer after the results are known but there is now a growing expectation among politicians and commentators in Ottawa that the King, who had hoped to visit the country in the spring of last year until his cancer diagnosis, will make his first visit to Canada as monarch this year.

Aides, who had previously ruled it out on the grounds that it would be difficult to visit in a year when an election could be held any time up until October, have now put Canada back into the mix of potential overseas trips after the new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to call an early 28 April vote and the continuing improvement in the King’s health.

‘Royal tour would help unite the country’

Charles would need to be invited by whoever leads the new government – Carney or his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre – for a visit to be considered formally but it is looking increasingly probable. Two possible dates are obvious choices: the opening of the new parliament in Ottawa on 26 May or Canada Day on 1 July.

Carolyn Harris, a Toronto-based historian and royal commentator, said: “There are clear historical precedents for the monarch opening parliament in Canada. In 1957, in her first visit to Canada as a reigning monarch, Queen Elizabeth II became the first sovereign to open Canada’s parliament in person.”

After a period in which opinion polls suggested many Canadians were unenthusiastic about the monarchy, the country’s two main political parties and many of their supporters have become increasingly appreciative of an institution that provides some sense of stability and makes their country distinctive from its southern neighbour. One poll earlier this week found 54 per cent of Canadians would prefer Charles as their head of state, compared to only 15 per cent who wanted Trump.

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Harris, who teaches history at the University of Toronto, believes whoever wins the election on Monday will want to invite the King. “The Liberal leader Mark Carney is a friend of King Charles III from his time as governor of the Bank of England, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre discussed the importance of constitutional monarchy in Canada in a speech commemorating the death of Queen Elizabeth II in 2022,” she said.

“Once the election has taken place, both the Conservative and Liberal leaders would welcome King Charles III opening parliament and celebrating Canada Day with Canadians, especially in the current political climate where American President Donald Trump has threatened Canada’s sovereignty.”

Robert Finch, chairman of the Monarchist League of Canada, is unsurprisingly enthusiastic. He said: “I think there’s a real desire for a Royal tour – even a short one – this year. Ordinarily, you would expect a lengthy cross-country tour for a new monarch, but these are not ordinary times.

“I know there was talk about having the King open parliament. I think that would accomplish major goals: one, it would remind Canadians about the role of the Crown and two, it would show a certain president south of the border that we are a sovereign country with King Charles III as our head of state.

“Both the prime minister and Mr Poilievre are strong monarchists, so there could be an appetite for something like this to happen regardless of who wins the election.

“And quite frankly a Royal tour would also help unite the country after what has been a divisive election campaign. Depending on the outcome of the election, we might really need that push for national unity.”

Canadian PM and Liberal leader Mark Carney during a campaign rally in Laval, Quebec. Carney has seen a sharp rise in polls since Donald Trump’s tariffs kicked in (Photo: Andrej Ivanov/AFP)

Until a few months ago, Poilievre, a populist firebrand who echoed Trump with his calls for Canada First, was miles ahead in the polls of the beleaguered Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau, whose government had run out of steam after 10 years in power.

But then Trudeau resigned, Trump became US President and began threatening Canada, and Carney – a Harvard and Oxford-educated technocrat – was chosen by his party as the new prime minister, vowing to resist Trump.

His message that Canada’s old relationship with the United States, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation”, is over appears to have struck a chord with voters.

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In January, a Nanos poll had the Conservatives on 47 per cent, way ahead of the Liberals on 20 per cent who looked to be facing a wipeout after two years of trailing badly in most measures of public opinion. But the same pollster had the Liberals leading by 8 per cent last week, while others have predicted a slightly more modest victory for Carney, 60, and his party.

For Starmer a Liberal victory may be the preferred outcome, offering the prospect of someone with a similar political outlook at the helm of a key ally who could help to form a bulwark against the worst effects of Trump.

The King too knows Carney well from his time at the Bank of England. Indeed the Liberal leader’s older brother, Sean, works for the Prince and Princess of Wales as the chief operating officer of their household at Kensington Palace.

The King and Carney share a similar outlook on the need to involve the finance industry in the transition to a net zero economy and both are architects of the green finance movement.

Carney, as a UN special envoy for climate action and finance, assembled the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, a group of bankers, insurers and investors to help achieve those goals, in the aftermath of the COP26 UN climate change conference hosted by Charles in Glasgow in 2021.

Charles’s subtle support for Canada

But the monarch will remain scrupulously neutral and work with whoever wins, according to those who know him.

He has been keen to signal his support for Canada in a time of turmoil but because he must leave the tough talking to the politicians, his championing of the country has been more subtle.

When Canada celebrated the 60th anniversary of its maple leaf flag earlier this year, the King issued a statement praising the “proud, resilient and compassionate country”.

He has worn his Canadian medals and decorations, or a red tie for Canada on occasion, while the Princess of Wales wore a red outfit for Canada on Commonwealth Day. A maple was chosen as a tree to be planted at a ceremony in Buckingham Palace.

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Courtiers have nodded and winked when asked about the choices, while insisting at other times that it was usual practice.

A senior Palace official said: “His Majesty cares very much about all of the countries where he has the privilege of being King and head of state. He’s always supported Canada, there is nothing new in that.

“What could perhaps otherwise be simply be seen as normal expressions of support do seem to be being noticed a little more. But showing support for Canada is something he’s always done and that he will continue to do.”

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