When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, Donald Trump praised the move as “savvy” and “genius”. Though he has toned down the grating hero worship, his Truth Social post imploring “Vladimir, STOP!” after a lethal Russian missile strike on Kyiv was his first direct rebuke.
The impact was electrifying but whatever did he mean? Was it a purr – “Oh, Vladimir, do stop” – or a tart putdown? While the Kremlin is deliberately secretive and opaque, Trump invites everybody to see what’s going on in his head.
All the posting at whim means that scrutinising Trump’s communiques for clues to his real intentions comes with a health warning that he might not mean what he said and could change his mind at any moment. But an end to the Ukraine war is tantalisingly close.
Faced with a global meltdown over tariffs, the US President needs a win. Stopping the war has turned out to be more a work-in-progress than he imagined on day one of his presidency, and it has been as plain as daylight that Putin has been stringing him along.
Trump may well be fed up with Putin. “I am not happy with Russian strikes,” he wrote. “Not necessary, and very bad timing.”
Then again, this might simply be a way to soften up the public for washing his hands of Ukraine. Trump always gives himself a get-out clause that Maga cultists can recycle to prove how wise and honourable he is.
Remember how on 6 January 2021 he urged his supporters in Washington to “fight like hell” for their country, but threw in three words about protesting “peacefully and patriotically”? That bit is all we ever hear about now the riot has been recast as a “day of love”.
Likewise, if Trump were to walk away from peace talks, growling “it’s not my war”, he will be able to pretend he wasn’t as slavish to Putin as critics contend. He has been astonishingly successful at rewriting history to his own benefit.
If there is a lesson to be gleaned, it is that Europeans should stop obsessing over what Trump thinks and step up their own efforts on Ukraine’s behalf without timidly waiting for US approval.
However, there was a second part to Trump’s social media post that deserves attention. “Let’s get a peace deal DONE!” he urged. There are reasons to believe that it might be coming, albeit in fragile form.
For all the posturing, Trump’s approach to ending the war has been consistent. He wants peace and will settle for a ceasefire that freezes the conflict. Mostly, he thinks that requires bullying President Zelensky into submission because Russia will keep fighting unless Ukraine offers land for peace.
Trump is hammering the Ukrainians into making painful concessions. Conversely, he has been playing nice with Russia because all Putin needs to do for peace to break out is “STOP!”.
But it does require Moscow to put its expansionist ambitions on hold and accept that nearly 800,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives or been wounded on the battlefield with little to show for it. Sweden and Finland joined Nato as a result. This is humiliation, not victory, for Putin.
In the Washington Post, the veteran foreign policy analyst David Ignatius argues that Trump may have found a path to peace. As ever in diplomacy, the outcome will involve agreements to differ.
“The challenge for Trump has been how to couple [his] hunger for a ceasefire with security guarantees for Ukraine that are strong and credible enough to stop Putin from invading again. Trump isn’t there yet but he’s getting closer,” Ignatius writes.
Russia would remain in charge of the territory it occupies, but Ukraine wouldn’t have to cede its claim to sovereignty. Although it couldn’t join Nato, it wouldn’t have to give up its aspiration to do so. But Ukraine could join the EU.
A big sticking point is US recognition of the annexation of Crimea, home to the warm, deepwater naval port of Sebastopol. “Crimea will stay with Russia,” Trump said on Friday in an interview with Time magazine.
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Read More“Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time. It’s been with them long before Trump came along,” he added. But Ukraine wouldn’t have to ratify this.
In addition to a US minerals deal, the Americans propose to oversee the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhya on the disputed frontline. According to Ignatius, this will serve as a “tripwire”. Although as an “economic power play”, these deals will give America “a stake in postwar peace”, he writes.
The US will continue intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, but security guarantees in the form of military assistance will have to come from Britain and members of the EU.
Critics say a sticking plaster peace deal will give Putin time to rearm and invade again. That’s true. But it also buys Europe time to get its act together.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Centre for International Reporting
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