Spanish football’s most famous rivalry comes to a head once more. Can Hansi Flick take the first step towards a remarkable treble by winning the 2025 Copa del Rey final? Find out in our Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
Barcelona are favourites to win, beating Real Madrid inside 90 minutes in 40.7% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Barcelona have beaten Madrid twice this season already, by an aggregate scoreline of 9-2. Kylian Mbappé, who has missed Madrid’s last two games with injury, is expected to be passed fit for the final.Spanish football’s fiercest rivalry writes another chapter this weekend as Barcelona and Real Madrid meet in the 2025 Copa del Rey final. For Hansi Flick, it could mark the first step towards an extraordinary treble in his debut season at the club.
The German head coach has Barcelona top of La Liga, into the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League, and now one win away from domestic cup glory.
Barça currently lead Real Madrid by four points in the league with five games remaining. The sides still have one more Clásico to contest – a potentially decisive encounter in the title race – but with Barcelona unbeaten in their last 14 La Liga matches, they remain firmly in control. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 87.0% chance of lifting the league title.
Flick’s side continued their impressive domestic form in midweek with a 1-0 win over Mallorca. Dani Olmo scored the game’s only goal shortly after half-time, though the scoreline didn’t reflect Barcelona’s dominance. They attempted 40 shots – equalling the most in a La Liga match on record (since 2003-04).
Their wastefulness in front of goal will place further scrutiny on Robert Lewandowski’s potential absence. The Polish striker – who has scored 40 goals in 48 appearances in all competitions this season – missed the Mallorca match after suffering a hamstring injury in the 4-3 win over Celta Vigo. He remains a major doubt for the Copa del Rey final and Barcelona’s upcoming Champions League semi-final tie against Inter.
In Lewandowski’s absence, Ferran Torres is expected to lead the line. The Spaniard has hit double figures in La Liga this season (10 goals) for the first time in his top-flight career, including his time in the Premier League with Manchester City.
High-scoring games have been a feature of Barcelona’s campaign. Their semi-final clash with Atlético Madrid in this competition was a rollercoaster, with the sides playing out an eight-goal thriller in the first leg (4-4). Flick’s side followed that with a 1-0 win in the return leg. Across all competitions, Barcelona’s matches this season have averaged 4.0 goals – the most of any club in Europe’s top five leagues.
Madrid have injury concerns of their own. Kylian Mbappé – who has scored 33 goals in his debut campaign – is in a race against time to be fit for the final after suffering an ankle injury in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final defeat to Arsenal. He was also suspended for their weekend La Liga win over Athletic Club and almost missed their midweek win against Getafe.
Mbappé’s pace and movement in behind Barcelona’s high defensive line could prove crucial if he’s passed fit. Ferland Mendy is also a doubt, though both he and Mbappé are expected to pass late fitness tests.
Madrid kept their faint title hopes alive on Wednesday with a narrow 1-0 victory over Getafe. Arda Güler‘s 20th-minute strike from the edge of the box was enough to get them the in after Ancelotti rested key players ahead of Saturday’s final.
Aside from long-term absentees Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal, Madrid’s squad is relatively healthy.
Madrid, too, got into the Copa del Rey final in dramatic fashion – this time in the second leg against Real Sociedad. The two sides played out a wild 4-4 extra-time draw, which gave Madrid a 5-4 aggregate win, but they were 10 minutes away from elimination.
Despite another potential domestic double, Carlo Ancelotti’s future remains uncertain. Their heavy Champions League exit at the hands of Arsenal has only intensified rumours linking Ancelotti with the Brazil national team role, while Bayer Leverkusen boss Xabi Alonso is touted as a possible successor.
Madrid trail Barcelona by four points in La Liga with five games to go. Even a cup final win might not be enough for Ancelotti to see out his contract through to 2026.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
This will be the 37th meeting between Barcelona and Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey; Barça currently lead the head-to-head 16 to 13 (eight draws).
Barcelona are the competition’s most decorated side, lifting the trophy 31 times, while Madrid rank third with 20 wins.
Barça have dominated the rivalry this season, recording a 4-0 win at the Bernabéu in La Liga and a 5-2 victory in the Supercopa de España.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction
According to the Opta supercomputer, Barcelona are slight favourites to lift the trophy. Flick’s side win in 90 minutes in 40.7% of simulations, while Real Madrid emerge victorious in 32.8%. The draw – which would send the game into extra-time – occurs in 26.5% of outcomes.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: Copa del Rey Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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