With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Championship match predictions for every fixture on Matchday 45.
There are just 24 matches left in the 2024-25 Championship season, with 12 of them coming this weekend.
Leeds and Burnley are already promoted to the Premier League for next season, while Sheffield United and Sunderland are confirmed for play-off spots. The two teams joining them are yet to be determined, while no one has had their relegation to League One sealed yet despite their being just two matchdays left.
The Championship is a notoriously hard league to predict, but the Opta supercomputer will have a go anyway…
Matchday 45 Predictions
The penultimate weekend of Championship action in 2024-25 kicks off on Friday night with Stoke City hosting Sheffield United at the bet365 Stadium.
Chris Wilder’s side will finish the regular season in third place following a disappointing run that’s seen them miss out on automatic promotion. They’ve suffered four defeats in their last five games, including a loss to Burnley on Easter Monday that saw both the Clarets and Leeds secure promotion to the Premier League.
Stoke still need two points to be absolutely sure of survival in a crowded relegation battle, but a draw here should be enough. Although the Blades are the favourites with the Opta supercomputer for this one, winning 43.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, there is a 56.9% chance that Stoke secure at least a point in front of the TV cameras.
There are two lunchtime kick-offs on Saturday, with Queens Park Rangers hosting Burnley and Luton Town facing Coventry City in a clash that will have ramifications at both ends of the table.
Burnley are already up but will want to win their final two matches to reach the 100-point mark for the second successive Championship campaign, following their 2022-23 success under Vincent Kompany.
Scott Parker’s side have the best defensive record in England’s top four tiers this season, conceding just 15 goals in 44 matches. If they keep another clean sheet in this match, it’ll equal the all-time EFL record in a season set by Port Vale in the 1953-54 third tier (30).
QPR are now winless in their last five at Loftus Road (D3 L2), and the supercomputer isn’t too hopeful of that run coming to an end here, winning just 23.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Back-to-back wins against Derby County and Bristol City have given Luton a fighting chance of avoiding relegation from the Championship this season.
A win at home to Frank Lampard’s Coventry could even prove enough to stop the Hatters becoming the first team to fall from the Premier League to League One in successive seasons since Sunderland in 2017-18.
However, Haji Wright could be a potential match-winner for the Sky Blues, who are in pole position to take the final play-off spot. The American has scored five goals in his last seven Championship appearances, while he also scored Coventry’s 90th-minute winner against Luton in the reverse fixture.
The supercomputer is struggling to pick a clear winner in this match, with Luton winning 36.7% of pre-match sims and Coventry just edging it with victory 37.1% of the time. An away win would leave Lampard’s men needing just a point at home to Middlesbrough – currently their closest challengers – on the final day of the season to seal a place in the play-offs.
Both Hull City and Derby County will be looking to capitalise if Luton slip up earlier on Saturday afternoon. While Derby are only ahead of the relegation zone on goal difference, Hull have a two-point cushion and – if Luton fail to win earlier in the day – could secure Championship safety with an away win at the MKM Stadium.
Hull won their last league game against Preston, but only once this season have they won consecutive league games (three in a row in September/October). The Opta supercomputer is backing them to grab all three points in this game, with the Tigers winning 48.1% of pre-match sims.
Both Plymouth Argyle and Cardiff City could suffer relegation this weekend if they fail to win their games on Saturday.
Plymouth face an out-of-sorts Preston North End in a long trip up to Lancashire, with the home side winning just one of their last 13 league games (D6 L6) including three defeats in a row in the most recent of those.
Plymouth last won a league game at Preston in November 1997, and the supercomputer isn’t backing that run to end this weekend, winning only 23.1% of pre-game sims.
Cardiff, with Aaron Ramsey in caretaker charge for the rest of 2024-25, host West Bromwich Albion, who sacked their own manager – Tony Mowbray – following defeat to lowly Derby in their last game.
West Brom’s play-off charge is realistically over now, having lost five of their last six league games (W1), as many as in their previous 30 (W8 D17). The supercomputer thinks they are the likelier side to pick up all three points in this clash, however, as they won 42.5% of the pre-match simulations.
Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough and Millwall are all still chasing a spot in the play-offs, and each are backed by the supercomputer to win this weekend as they face a trio of sides who are already ‘on the beach’ in Watford, Norwich City and Swansea City respectively.
Sunderland are confirmed for a play-off spot and have sealed fourth place as they await to discover their opponents in the end-of-season battle. They head to Oxford United – another team still threatened with relegation – and are predicted to win by the supercomputer too (43.7%).
The other game on Saturday afternoon sees Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth clash at Hillsborough, with both clubs now unable to be relegated or reach the play-offs. Danny Röhl’s Owls are backed to win their final home match of the season by the Opta supercomputer based on its pre-game simulations (47.1%).
With Leeds United confirmed as a Premier League club for 2025-26, attention now turns to securing the Championship title ahead of Burnley.
They face a tricky home game versus Bristol City at Elland Road on Monday, needing a win – like Burnley – to keep their hopes of reaching 100 points this season alive. They won 63% of the pre-game simulations, making them the supercomputer’s most confident pick of the matchday.
Bristol City will want to cause an upset to help them finish in the play-off places, but they haven’t won any of their last 10 league games against Leeds and face a side who’ve already scored a league-high 89 goals this season, including six in their last match versus Stoke.
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Championship Match Predictions Opta Analyst.
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