The Serie A title race is going to the wire. With Inter and Napoli level on points, is the Scudetto heading to Milan or Naples? We run through the Opta supercomputer’s Serie A title predictions.
The Serie A title battle has long looked like a two-horse race between Inter and Napoli. For much of the season, Simone Inzaghi’s side have had the upper hand, often enjoying a three-point advantage over their Neapolitan rivals. But that has now vanished.
Inter have dropped points in two of their last three Serie A matches. First came a 2-2 draw at Parma, where they let a two-goal lead slip. A 3-1 win over Cagliari steadied the ship somewhat, but last weekend was the shock that blew the title race wide open. A tricky trip to Bologna ended in defeat after Riccardo Orsolini‘s spectacular last-gasp overhead kick stunned the league leaders.
Inter also suffered a morale-denting defeat on Wednesday, losing 3-0 in the Coppa Italia semi-finals against fierce rivals Milan.
Napoli have taken full advantage of Inter’s stumble, with back-to-back victories over Empoli and Monza pulling them level at the top on 71 points.
With five games remaining, the title race is wide open. But who does the Opta supercomputer think will win the title? The answer: it’s virtually a coin flip.
In 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, Inter won the title in 51.0% of scenarios, while Napoli emerged victorious in 48.7%. Atalanta (0.3%) are the only side to win the title in any of the simulations, but their miniscule number is an indication of how tightly this race is locked between the top two.
The model’s projected final points totals also reflect this razor-thin margin. Inter’s average end-of-season figure in the simulations is 81.9, with Napoli just 0.1 points behind on 81.8.
Although Inter sit top on goal difference, that won’t be enough to win the league if both teams finish level on points. A rule introduced two seasons ago states that if two teams competing for the title, or to avoid relegation, finish level on points, the result is settled with a play-off. In the case of the title, it’s a single-leg play-off. Winner takes all.
What of the two teams’ run-ins, though? How tricky are their remaining fixtures? We can turn to the Opta Power Rankings for answers here. As a reminder, the Opta Power Rankings are a global team rating system that assigns a score to more than 13,000 men’s domestic football teams and over 2,000 women’s domestic teams on a scale from zero to 100, where zero is the lowest-rated team in the world, and 100 the highest.
By averaging the ratings of each club’s remaining opponents, we can assess the relative difficulty of their final fixtures. And the results are telling.
Napoli, with an average opponent rating of just 83, have the easiest set of fixtures remaining of any side in Serie A. Their toughest remaining matches – against Torino and Genoa – are both at home.
Inter’s schedule is slightly tougher, with an average opponent rating of 86.7. Matches against Roma and Lazio stand out as potential stumbling blocks, though they are at San Siro.
On paper, both teams should expect to win the majority of their remaining games. But with Inter also juggling their Champions League semi-final clash with Barcelona, could this give Napoli the edge? Antonio Conte’s side have no European distractions and can focus fully on the league run-in.
Maybe, just maybe, we’ll get the fabled Scudetto play-off after all. Right now, that’s exactly what the Opta supercomputer seems to suggest is the likeliest outcome.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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Serie A Title Predictions: Inter or Napoli To Be Crowned? Opta Analyst.
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