Analyzing (and predicting) the four Eastern Conference playoff matchups ...Middle East

I’ll save you much preamble, as you’re familiar with what’s going on. Here’s which teams in the Eastern Conference I think have advantages and disadvantages as we head into Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

TORONTO vs. OTTAWA 

Season series: The Sens won all three games, by scores of 3-0, 2-1 and 4-2. Quick math on that, the Leafs scored three times in three games, which for a team that’s been offensively starved in playoffs, seems like a bit of a concern.  

The breakdown: On paper, this thing leans pretty heavily in the Leafs’ favour. On paper, of course, not on the ice. 

But on paper, the Leafs score significantly more than Ottawa, even if a lot of that is based on elite finishing and not creating a ton more chances. On paper, the Leafs are ahead in goals against per game, power play, penalty kill and team save percentage. On paper, the Leafs have the three highest-scoring forwards in the series, with John Tavares not included in that group, despite scoring nine more goals than the Sens highest scorer. 

What most people will come back to is that the Sens aren’t pushovers. Brady Tkachuk, Ridley Greig, David Perron and Nick Cousins will be eager to make playing hockey un-fun out there. And their offence is tailored more toward playoff hockey, in that they do a lot of their damage from in tight around the crease.  

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A big X-factor is Jake Sanderson, though the Leafs have typically fallen at the hands of teams with bigger, rangier D-men. It’s been Aaron Ekblad and Victor Hedman and Brandon Carlo who have shut them down. If Sanderson and Thomas Chabot can skate the puck out of trouble, it could frustrate the Leafs forwards in different ways. But, at the same time, they’re going to get their touches, and for once they should be able to find space and out-muscle a team whose best D-men are on the more slight side (with the meatier bottom pair being gettable for different reasons).  

If the Leafs defence is healthy, the Sens will have their hands full when it comes to scoring. Which, of course, leads us to the most important position of all, goaltending. The Leafs have two inexperienced goaltenders who they’re hoping can have playoff success. The Sens have one guy who hasn’t had playoff success, but is very good in the regular season. Tough to point to an advantage either way there. 

If the Sens have any real advantage, it might be the Brady Tkachuk factor. He’s an absolute menace who leaves the game in his wake, pulling the course of events around whatever antics he’s up to at any given time. Can he drag the Leafs into the type of dogfight they don’t typically like? 

My pick: Toronto in 6 

A healthy Leafs D-corps should be able to keep Ottawa’s offence in check. From there, the Leafs’ problem in the past has been a lack of production from their Core Four, but I don’t think the Sens have the defensive horses of the teams who’ve beat the Leafs in the past. They should finally break through. 

FLORIDA vs. TAMPA BAY 

Season series: They split the season series 2-2, but Florida won two close games, and Tampa Bay won 4-0 and 5-1 in their wins.  

The breakdown: What we’ve got here is a battle of the numbers versus the eye-test, the gut feel. Tampa Bay is ahead of Florida in just about every statistical category, which includes the category where the Bolts are the best offensive team in the NHL.  

But it’s tough to shake the fact that the Panthers are the defending Cup champs, and injuries have greatly impacted their ability to put up representative numbers of their abilities at max strength. By Game 3, it’s possible that the Lightning still won’t have Oliver Bjorkstrand (injury), while the Cats will get Aaron Ekblad back and Matthew Tkachuk will be up and running. Brad Marchand with him could be deadly. A fully healthy Florida, with room to find itself, would be a terrifying prospect for Eastern Conference hopefuls. 

Yet I can’t shake the fact that a team that’s bringing guys back from injury may not get the chance to get them up to full speed, and that Tampa may be the most underrated team this season. The Lightning also back to getting all-world goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy (likely Vezina nominee), which is no small potatoes. 

My pick: Tampa Bay in 7 

Seven is maybe a cop-out, but I just can’t see the defending champs going down easy. The Lightning look all-around more dangerous, and we haven’t seen the Panthers at full strength in awhile. 

WASHINGTON vs. MONTREAL 

Season series: The Capitals took five of six points against Montreal, losing in overtime in their last meeting, in January. If you’re a Habs fan, you’re pointing to the first couple of losses coming in 2024, before they’d really figured themselves out. 

The breakdown: Some things the Habs have going for them:  

What the Capitals have going for them is that they’re a better team. If this were a best-of-100, you’d bet your house on Washington, which is deeper, bigger, tougher, older. There are matchups the Caps could exploit — for example, Sportlogiq shows the Canadiens to be 28th at denying slot shots off the cycle, while the Caps offence is fourth at generating those very shots.  

Still, the Caps have been scuffling over the past, oh, quarter of the season, their goaltending quality has slid a little, and I don’t think they’re as good as their finish in the standings.  

My pick: Washington in 5 

For the Habs, getting in was a win. The Caps have been thinking about the playoffs since the calendar flipped to the new year. They should be able to handle their business.

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CAROLINA vs. NEW JERSEY 

Season series: The scores in their four games were 4-2, 4-2, 4-2 and 5-2 (with an empty-netter), with both teams winning twice. Weird schedule quirk, though: they didn’t play in 2025. Just banged out all four matchups in a few months and haven’t seen each other since. 

The breakdown: Based on recent play, this one does not have the feel of a heavyweight tilt. The Devils have lost four of their last five, which isn’t good, unless you compare them to the Canes, who’ve lost six of their last seven.  

Now, part of that is that they’ve long known their playoff seeding, and they’ve been resting guys, but it’s also a vibe pushed along by the Canes trading Mikko Rantanen then never really replacing him for this season, and the Devils losing Jack Hughes outright for the season.  

Fundamentally, nobody shoots the puck more than the Canes; they are a shot-attempt machine. The Devils create far fewer attempts, but do defend well. One stat I remember seeing that’s tough to shake: When the Devils had their top-six D all healthy, which was pre-Christmas, they had a run of seven straight games where they allowed fewer than 20 shots, which I believe is an NHL record. If their defence is healthy, they’ll be tough to score on. And Dougie Hamilton is back, and they’re healthy again. 

Both teams have awesome penalty kills (Nos. 1 and 2 in league), but the Canes power play struggles far more than the Devils’. I’m also not sure why I should believe the Hurricanes goaltending is going to be better than the 31st-ranked team the shook out to be this year. The Devils don’t have the best goaltending right now, but I do think I prefer what they’ve got.  

And so … 

My pick: New Jersey in 7 

The Devils will struggle to score (missing Jack Hughes hurts bad), but I see this being a low-scoring series overall, and with the few advantages they hold, I had to give them the nod in the end.  

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