Could US port traffic really crash this year?
The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates is subject to whatever tariff regime rules the day but it's a useful view on how long it will take for tariff effects to truly hit trade.
The numbers show a short-term bump ahead of a rapid plunge.
Their data shows that February saw 2.06 million TEUs handled (up 5.2% year-over-year), and March is projected at 2.14 million TEUs (up 11.1% year-over-year), the outlook darkens significantly from May onward (TEU stands for "Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit," which is the standard unit of measurement used in the shipping industry to quantify cargo capacity or volume):
May: Expected to fall to 1.66 million TEUs (-20.5% y/y ), ending 19 consecutive months of growthJune: Projected at 1.57 million TEUs (-26.6% y/y), the lowest volume since February 2023July: Forecast at 1.69 million TEUs (-27% y/y)August: Expected to be 1.7 million TEUs (-26.8% y/y)These are catastrophic numbers for the shipping industry and they forecast a 15% overall drop in 2025 cargo volumes, though these numbers were before the latest U-turn on electronics tariffs.
For me, the takeaway here is that we will have to wait until May to see trade as a real headwind to
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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