Premier League Match Predictions ...Middle East

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.

The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.

Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.

Matchday 32

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25, with the league table having now firmly taken shape as we move into the closing stages of the season.

Liverpool suffered just their second defeat of the season last weekend but still lead Arsenal by 11 points at the summit, while the most recent matchday was an eventful one at the bottom.

Southampton became the first team to be relegated from the Premier League with as many as seven games remaining, while Ipswich Town and Leicester City appear destined to join them in the Championship after crushing defeats to Wolves and Newcastle United.

Matchday 32 will see matches spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday in a bumper weekend. The race for Europe will take up much of the focus between now and the end of the campaign, and Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa all play on Saturday.

There are four Sunday games, with the biggest of those pitting in-form Newcastle against Manchester United, then Bournemouth host Fulham on Monday to conclude the action.

Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 32: The Quick Hits

The weekend’s action kicks off when Manchester City welcome Crystal Palace to the Etihad, where having lost on their first six league visits, the Eagles have lost just two of their last six away games against City in the competition (W2 D2).

However, City have lost only one of their last 12 Premier League games against Palace (W7 D4), going down 2-0 at home in October 2021.

And the Opta supercomputer rates City as favourites with a 59.4% win probability. The chance of a draw is roughly one in five (20.5%), while Palace have a similar 20.0% win likelihood.

Palace are unbeaten in their last 10 away games in the Premier League (W6 D4); never in their league history have they had a longer run without defeat on the road.

Southampton broke an unwanted record last time out as they suffered the earliest relegation in Premier League history in terms of games remaining.

Ivan Jurić was then dismissed on Monday, leaving Simon Rusk to take charge as they host Aston Villa.

Southampton’s task now is to earn at least two points to surpass Derby County’s record-low points tally of 11, set in 2007-08. However, the supercomputer does not give them much hope of getting those points this time out.

They are given just a 19.8% chance of victory, with Villa’s probability coming in at a healthy 57.9%.

Villa have won their last four Premier League games against Southampton by an aggregate score of 7-0. In their league history, only against Stoke City (1905-1923), Sunderland (1983-1990) and Hull City (1988-2010) have they won five in a row without conceding.

Southampton have lost 25 of their 31 Premier League games this season (W2 D4), the joint-most league defeats in a single campaign in their history, also losing 25 times in their last top-flight campaign (2022-23).

Leicester also look doomed after a dismal showing in their 3-0 loss to Newcastle on Monday, and the Foxes came out on top in just 11.9% of the model’s data-led simulations ahead of facing Brighton on Saturday.

Brighton have a whopping 71.1% chance of taking three points, with a 17.0% probability of a draw.

After losing six of their first eight Premier League games against Leicester (D2), Brighton are now unbeaten in five against the Foxes in the competition (W2 D3).

Leicester have lost their last two Premier League away games against Brighton, having won three of their previous four (D1). They have never lost three consecutive away league games against the Seagulls.

Brighton, though, have lost their last two Premier League games, as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 13 (W6 D5).

Leicester lost their last eight Premier League games without scoring a single goal – they could become the first top-flight team in English football history to lose nine consecutive top-flight games without reply.

This time last year, Everton and Nottingham Forest were hovering dangerously close to the bottom three.

Matters could hardly be more different now for Forest, who are flying high in third place despite losing to Villa last time out. Everton, meanwhile, are surely safe and sound, some 15 points clear of the bottom three.

Forest have won seven of their last nine Premier League home games (D2), more than in their previous 24 beforehand (W6 D7 L11). They’ve also kept a clean sheet in each of their last four at the City Ground, last recording more in a row at home in the top flight in May 1980 under Brian Clough (eight).

Unsurprisingly, given their lofty position, Forest have a 45.8% win probability for Saturday’s game. Everton’s chances of success are rated at 27.1%, while this is deemed to be the likeliest Matchday 32 game to end in a draw (also 27.1%).

In Saturday’s late kick-off, Arsenal welcome Brentford to the Emirates Stadium, coming off their incredible Champions League triumph over Real Madrid.

Two Declan Rice free-kicks helped Mikel Arteta’s men establish a 3-0 first-leg lead over the Spanish giants, and they are given a 56.4% chance of another victory here, compared to Brentford’s 20.7% win probability.

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League London derbies (W12 D2), scoring five or more goals in five of those matches.

But Brentford are unlikely to roll over, having won five of their last six Premier League away games (L1). The only exception in this run, though, was their last such match at Newcastle.

There are three early Sunday games, and Chelsea need points in the hunt for Champions League qualification ahead of hosting Ipswich.

Enzo Maresca’s Blues drew 0-0 with Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium last week, but they have won their last five Premier League games at Stamford Bridge by an aggregate score of 11-2.

Ipswich appear doomed following last week’s defeat to Wolves, with Kieran McKenna all but admitting relegation is now inevitable. But they have won 65% (13/20) of their points on their travels this season – in Premier League history, only Palace in 1997-98 (66.7%) and Watford in 2021-22 (65.2%) have earned a higher share on the road. 

However, the Tractor Boys are major outsiders for this one, only winning in 13.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations while losing in 69.6%.

Despite going down to Fulham last week, Liverpool only need a maximum of 11 more points to clinch the title, and they can take a major step towards that goal against West Ham.

Arne Slot’s team, boosted by the news of Mohamed Salah’s new contract, are expected to get back to winning ways. They’re given a 69.1% chance of overcoming the Hammers, who only have a 13.8% win probability.

Graham Potter is unbeaten on his last three Premier League trips to Anfield (W1 D2), though; two with Brighton and one with Chelsea. The last visiting manager to avoid defeat on four straight trips there in the competition was Sam Allardyce, between 2016 and 2020.

However, Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season. No English top-flight team has ever scored five goals against another three times in the same campaign before.

Wolves are one of the form teams in the Premier League, winning three straight games to pull clear of the relegation battle. They will fancy their chances against Tottenham, whose focus may be on the second leg of their Europa League tie against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Since Vitor Pereira’s first game in charge in December, only five sides have won more Premier League games than Wolves’ seven, and they could win four straight top-flight matches for the first time since January 1972.

Spurs have also lost on their last two league trips to Molineux, as many defeats as in their previous 12 visits (W8 D2).

With Ange Postecoglou’s focus potentially elsewhere, Spurs are outsiders with a 31.4% chance of victory, compared to Wolves’ 43.2% probability.

The momentum seems to be with Newcastle in the fight for Champions League football, and they face Manchester United at St James’ Park in Sunday’s headline fixture.

Following Monday’s 3-0 triumph at Leicester, Eddie Howe’s Magpies have won 11 of their last 15 Premier League games, losing the other four. Since the first game in this run (on 14 December), no side have won more (joint with Liverpool).

Meanwhile, United boss Ruben Amorim is averaging 1.15 points-per-game in the Premier League; the only managers in their history to average fewer in the top flight (minimum 20 games, adjusted for three points for a win) are A.H. Albut (0.73) and Scott Duncan (1.00).

Like Spurs, United will also have half an eye on the second leg of their Europa League tie after drawing 2-2 with Lyon this week, and they are only given a 22.2% win probability to Newcastle’s 55.5%.

There is also a Monday offering, and it’s another big one in the chase for Europe as Fulham visit Bournemouth.

Marco Silva’s team moved up to eighth with their shock win over Liverpool, and that position could be enough for UEFA Europa Conference League qualification, depending on how the rest of the European battle shakes out.

But inconsistency has held them back, as they have alternated between winning (four times) and losing (three) in each of their last seven league games.

Bournemouth have tailed off lately, and they could lose five straight home league games for just the third time in their history, previously doing so in the third tier in 1996 and 2005.

But our predictive model fancies them to halt their slide, assigning the Cherries a 44.0% win probability compared to Fulham’s 30.6%.

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Premier League Match Predictions Opta Analyst.

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