Two bonus spots in the 2025-26 Champions League will be awarded to the domestic leagues whose teams perform best in Europe in 2024-25. So, will the Premier League earn one of those spots? We asked the Opta supercomputer to predict what will happen.
The new-look 2024-25 UEFA Champions League is nearing its end, so we’ve found a reason to start thinking about 2025-26.
Given Liverpool’s dominance in the Premier League, the title is basically out of the question for every other club, so qualifying for next season’s Champions League will be the aim for this campaign for many. There are also teams like Nottingham Forest and Fulham for whom the prospect of Champions League qualification would have been beyond their wildest dreams at the start of the season, but now looks eminently possible.
As was the case last season, two extra spots in the Champions League are up for grabs, meaning there is a possibility that fifth place in England’s top flight will be enough to make it into Europe’s most lucrative competition.
Where those two extra spots go will be decided based on the performances of each league’s teams in all three European competitions in 2024-25, using a system in which points are awarded for wins and progress through the rounds.
So, the better each nation’s teams do in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in 2024-25, the higher the chance of that nation being awarded a bonus Champions League spot for the following campaign.
Last season, the failure of England’s best teams to perform in Europe meant the Premier League missed out on a fifth place in the Champions League. Those spots were instead awarded to Italy and Germany.
But will fifth place in the Premier League this season get a Champions League spot?
We’ve used the Opta supercomputer’s season projections for each European competition to try to predict which leagues will earn the extra Champions League places. Using these projections, we can give an expected points (xPts) total for each association in the UEFA coefficients ranking, which then tells us how likely it is that each nation will earn an additional spot in next season’s Champions League.
We will update this page throughout the season, but here’s how things look right now.
9 April
That’s it, it’s decided. The Premier League has earned an extra spot in next season’s Champions League.
The teams battling it out for fifth spot this season have Arsenal to thank for confirming it, after their stunning 3-0 win over Real Madrid in their Champions League quarter-final first leg on Tuesday gave England’s contingent an unassailable coefficient lead over the rest of Europe (you’ll never sing that).
There’s no need for the Opta supercomputer’s predictions about how the rest of the season will pan out in European competition: fifth place in the Premier League in 2024-25 is now guaranteed to mean a spot in next season’s Champions League.
The supercomputer currently makes Manchester City (24.1% chance), Newcastle (22.7%), Chelsea (20.2%) and Nottingham Forest (17.6%) the most likely teams to finish fifth this season, so it will probably be one of those four celebrating being the Premier League’s fifth-best side come the end of May.
There is a chance now – albeit a slim one – that the Premier League could have as many as seven teams in the Champions League next season, though. The winners of the Champions League and Europa League this term will also qualify for Europe’s biggest club competition.
Aston Villa, Manchester United and Tottenham are all still battling in those competitions while also currently outside the Premier League’s top five, so could add to the English contingent in next season’s Champions League.
The Premier League teams’ achievements in Europe mean there is just one more bonus spot up for grabs. That currently looks like it will be heading to Spain, with La Liga given a 96.3% chance of earning an extra spot in the Champions League according to the supercomputer’s rest-of-season predictions.
Serie A is next, but they are clinging on to a slim hope based on Inter’s chances in the Champions League, Lazio in the Europa League and Fiorentina in the Conference League. They will need all three to go deep in those competitions to have any chance of catching La Liga.
Every other nation is out of the race, so it will be one of Spain or Italy that joins England in earning an extra Champions League spot for next year.
14 March
We’re now into the quarter-finals of each of Europe’s three continental cup competitions – and England still have five of their seven representatives alive and kicking. If you’d been asked at the start of the season to guess the first two English sides to be eliminated, it’s unlikely you’d have said Liverpool and Manchester City. If you did, well, go and buy yourself a lottery ticket.
City were knocked out in the Champions League knockout play-off round by Real Madrid, while Liverpool – who had been the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to lift the trophy – were eliminated on penalties in the last 16 by Paris Saint-Germain. You might think the exit of two heavyweights like that would severely harm England’s chances of earning an extra Champions League spot for next season, but the progression of the remaining Premier League sides means those hopes remain incredibly strong.
Champions League Predictions:
Champions LeagueChampions League Predictions: Opta Supercomputer’s 2024-25 Knockout Projections
15 hours ago Oliver Hopkins, Ryan BensonArsenal and Aston Villa both face tricky quarter-final assignments in the Champions League, but Manchester United and Tottenham are well-placed to go deep in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Chelsea are the supercomputer’s overwhelming favourites to win the UEFA Conference League.
In fact, given the way the points system works, all that needs to happen at the quarter-final stage to confirm an extra Champions League spot for the Premier League is that one English team wins one match.
As a result, the Premier League is now extremely likely to secure a fifth Champions League spot for 2025-26. So likely, in fact, that in 50,000 simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, England were awarded the bonus spot in every single one. That’s not us saying it is guaranteed to happen, but it’s about as close as it gets.
Spain (98.1%) are right up there, too. As we outlined in the previous entry on this blog, it was actually Italy who were second favourites to earn the extra slot heading into the final rounds of the league phases across the three competitions. But Italian clubs suffered a disastrous play-off round in the Champions League, with Juventus, Milan and Atalanta all falling to opponents they were favoured to beat. Roma also crashed out of the Europa League on Thursday at the last-16 stage, losing to Athletic Club.
It’s Spanish teams who have been the biggest beneficiaries of Italy’s collapse. La Liga’s probability of claiming the second bonus Champions League berth now stands at 98.1%. Barcelona and Real Madrid are on opposite sides of the Champions League draw, while Athletic Club are the supercomputer’s current favourites to lift the Europa League. Real Betis also have an excellent chance of making the semi-finals of the Conference League, having been drawn against Polish outfit Jagiellonia Białystok.
24 January
The new-look, expanded league phases in each of Europe’s three major competitions are taking shape, with just one matchday left in the Champions League and Europa League, and the Conference League group stage already wrapped up.
Manchester City had come into the season as favourites to win the Champions League, but their progress beyond the league phase is far from certain following this week’s 4-2 defeat to PSG. They need a win in their final game to make it into the play-off round.
But otherwise, the English teams are faring very well indeed. Liverpool are already guaranteed to qualify for the knockouts, while Arsenal are as good as sure of a spot, too. Aston Villa are backed by the supercomputer to progress, too. We have explained all the possible permutations in the Champions League here.
In the Europa League, both Manchester United and Tottenham look likely to finish in the top eight after wins over Rangers and Hoffenheim this week, while Chelsea have already confirmed top spot in the Conference League having won all six of their games.
Six of the seven English clubs are looking likely to earn automatic qualification for the last 16, and you would be brave to bet against City recovering to make it through. The Opta supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s side a 63.8% chance of doing enough to make the play-off round.
The Premier League boasts the supercomputer’s favourites to win the Champions League (Liverpool) and the Conference League (Chelsea), as well as the third- and fourth-most likely teams to win the Europa League (Spurs and United, respectively). It all means the English top flight is very, very likely in the eyes of the supercomputer to earn a fifth Champions League spot next season – given a 97.9% chance according to our projections.
Nils Mackay /Italy are right up there, too, though they are currently being let down by Bologna, who have already had their elimination from the Champions League confirmed.
But Internazionale, Milan, Atalanta and Juventus are all still going strong, and Inter are second favourites to win the whole thing.
In the Europa League, Lazio are the only club guaranteed to be in the last 16 and they are the supercomputer’s favourites to lift the trophy. In the Conference League, Fiorentina finished third in the league phase.
Serie A is therefore given a 76.2% chance of earning a fifth Champions League spot for a second season running.
Spain, with seven teams competing in Europe this season, are the only other nation given any kind of significant chance of earning a fifth Champions League spot, but the supercomputer rates their chances at a relatively low 24.0%.
That’s because heavyweights Real Madrid are floundering in the lower part of the table in the Champions League and Girona have already been eliminated. In the Europa League, Real Sociedad are heading for the play-off round, while Real Betis face the same fate in the Conference League.
That means four of the seven Spanish teams are facing a battle to make the knockout rounds.
Otherwise, Portugal (0.9%), Belgium (0.9%) and Germany (0.1%) are all but certain not to earn an extra Champions League spot but do still have a slim hope.
There’s a long way to go yet, but if the supercomputer’s projections are anything to go by, fifth place in the Premier League in 2024-25 is likely to be enough for Champions League qualification.
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Will the Premier League Get an Extra Champions League Spot for 2025-26? Opta Analyst.
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