Arsenal host Real Madrid, looking to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2009. We look ahead to Tuesday’s game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal the 41.7% favourites to beat Real Madrid in this match. The Gunners won their only previous tie with Real Madrid, back in 2006. Real Madrid have won 11 of their previous 22 knockout games against English opposition in the UEFA Champions League.A clash between Arsenal and Real Madrid pits together the sides in second place in the Premier League and La Liga, respectively. But when it comes to the UEFA Champions League, there is no realistic comparison to be made.
The Gunners last successively navigated this round of the competition in 2009. Madrid have been crowned kings of Europe six times since then.
None of that history will matter too much on Tuesday evening at the Emirates Stadium, of course. It certainly shows the scale of the task that Arsenal face, though.
Their chances will not be aided by their injury list. Both Kai Havertz and Gabriel Magalhães would surely have started this game had they been available, while Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Jesus and Takehiro Tomiyasu are also out of action. Arsenal did welcome back Ben White into their starting XI in the draw at Everton this weekend, while Jurriën Timber was fit enough to make a substitute appearance after previous injury concerns.
Carlo Ancelotti will hope to have Thibaut Courtois back for the trip to London, as he has prevented four goals above the xG on target he has faced in this competition this season. Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão are long-term absentees, while Aurélien Tchouaméni is suspended. Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy may return here, though.
Whoever makes the starting XI for the defending champions, their record is formidable. Real Madrid haven’t lost the first leg in any of their last eight knockout-stage ties in the Champions League, winning five of them. They are unbeaten in four when on the road for the opening game of a tie, with only two defeats in their previous 13 such matches.
As ominous as that record is, Arsenal have displayed extreme defensive mettle in Europe this season. They rank first in the 2024-25 Champions League for xG against per game (0.88), while only Internazionale (0.2) have conceded fewer goals per game (0.6).
The Gunners have outperformed their expected goal rate at the back thanks to David Raya conceding 3.7 goals fewer than the xGOT faced suggests he should have. His form has helped his side to trail for only 65 minutes in the competition this season, while they have led for the longest of any team, too (568 minutes).
Not that such impressive defensive fortitude will intimidate Kylian Mbappé, and neither will the vociferous home crowd. The Real Madrid forward has scored 10 goals in 16 games against English teams in the Champions League, four of which came in two matches versus Manchester City this season.
Karim Benzema owns the niche record of most knockout stage goals against English sides in a single campaign after notching seven in Madrid’s triumphant 2021-22 campaign. Mbappé probably doesn’t even know about this particular statistic, but he could feasibly get close to his countryman by the time this tie is over.
Aside from Real’s 26-year-old number nine, there will likely be a blend of youth and experience on display on Tuesday evening.
Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri could become only the second and third English players to start a Champions League quarter-final while aged 18 or younger. The only prior example will be lining up opposite them, as Jude Bellingham was 17 when facing Manchester City four years ago.
At the opposite end of the age scale is Luka Modric. Even though it’s 19 years since Arsenal’s only final in this competition, the Madrid veteran was already a Croatian international at that point.
Modric is still vital to how Ancelotti’s side plays, even though he turns 40 later this year. The midfield maestro has averaged 17.5 line-breaking passes per 90 in the 2024-25 Champions League this season; the most of any player with 500+ minutes played. Modric may not start, but his passing prowess could prove crucial should the away side need a goal late on.
Real Madrid have beaten 111 different teams in the European Cup/Champions League, but Arsenal are not yet one of them. To retain serious hopes of a first semi-final for 16 years when heading to Spain next week, the Gunners will probably need to keep that record intact.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Considering that both clubs have contested numerous campaigns in this competition, it is remarkable that they have only met twice before.
In 2006, Arsenal reached the final of the UEFA Champions League for the first (and to date only) time. They beat Real Madrid in the round of 16, with a goalless draw at Highbury following a 1-0 win in Spain. Thierry Henry (who else?) scored the decisive goal.
The La Liga giants have plenty of recent experience against Premier League opposition, though.
Since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, Real Madrid have played 22 matches against English sides in the knockout stages of the Champions League, winning 11 and only losing six. In the last three seasons alone, they have won at Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction
Arsenal are favourites according to the Opta supercomputer but there isn’t much in it.
The Gunners are rated as having a 41.7% chance of heading to Spain for the second leg with a lead. Real Madrid’s hopes of a win are valued at 31.1%, with 27.2% allotted to a draw.
Interestingly, a draw was the outcome for both clubs in the first legs of their UEFA Champions League quarter-finals last season. Arsenal drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich while Real Madrid against Manchester City ended 3-3.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday at the Emirates Stadium, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction Opta Analyst.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction )
Also on site :
- Deputy-involved shooting near Stockton leaves suspect dead, attorney general says
- Dash cam captures deadly shooting at Fort Collins mall
- United Airlines Making Big Changes to Onboard Service