Santa Anita Derby features Journalism, Citizen Bull and big questions ...0

ARCADIA — The Santa Anita Derby is packing a lot of possibilities into a puny field Saturday.

The five 3-year-old colts who will break from the starting gate a little after 4:45 p.m. for the $500,000, Grade I race include Journalism, the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old champion, Barnes, a $3.2 million yearling purchase, and Baeza, a $1.2 million prospect.

One and one-eighth miles and about 1 minute and 48 seconds later, fans in Arcadia and across the country will know who writes his name alongside Santa Anita Derby winners like Swaps, Silky Sullivan, Affirmed, Sunday Silence and Justify, and answers to key questions going into the Derby in Louisville on May 3.

“A lot of things can happen,” said Bob Baffert, trainer of Citizen Bull and Barnes, noting that jockeys’ tactics sometimes play a bigger role in a smaller field.

Here are some top questions:

Can Journalism confirm his status as Kentucky Derby favorite? After wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity and a high-rated San Felipe Stakes with jockey Umberto Rispoli, the son of Curlin is the 6-5 favorite on the Santa Anita Derby morning line and was the 6-1 public choice Friday afternoon in Kentucky Derby future wagering that continues through Saturday at 1 p.m.

Will Citizen Bull win his first meeting with Journalism? At 9-5 on the Santa Anita Derby line with Martin Garcia riding, the son of Into Mischief comes in off front-running wins in the American Pharoah Stakes, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. A win could return Citizen Bull to the top of the class.

Are Barnes and Baeza going to qualify for the Kentucky Derby? While Journalism and Citizen Bull already have enough points to make the 20-horse Derby, 3-1 Barnes, with Juan Hernandez riding, must finish first or second Saturday, and 6-1 Baeza, under Hector Berrios, must finish first to clear the typical points threshold.

Barnes and Baeza must finish one place better than they would have if the 100, 50, 25, 15 and 10 points normally awarded to the Santa Anita Derby’s top five finishers hadn’t been reduced by one-quarter to 75, 37½, 18¼, 11¼ and 7½ because only five horses are running. Baeza trainer John Shirreffs and part-owner CRK Stable also entered 20-1 long shot Westwood, with jockey Tiago Pereira, to keep the field from shrinking to four horses, which would have cut the points in half.

Baeza is attempting a huge step up from a maiden victory in February, but Shirreffs thinks the son of McKinzie will thrive at the distance, which all of the horses are trying for the first time.

“He’s been training very well,” said Shirreffs, a two-time Santa Anita Derby winner. “Every time he’s trained or galloped, the farther he’s gone, the better he gets. The fact it’s a mile and an eighth is great.”

Barnes ran well but couldn’t hold off Journalism in the San Felipe. Baffert felt better about the offspring of Into Mischief following a strong workout Monday, for which the horse wore blinkers after the trainer experimented with removing them.

“He looks good now,” said Baffert, a nine-time Santa Anita Derby winner.

Baffert, who will return to the Kentucky Derby with at least one horse after Churchill Downs lifted what became a three-year ban stemming from Medina Spirit’s 2021 disqualification for a medication violation, can use the Santa Anita Derby as a warmup for Citizen Bull.

“He couldn’t be doing any better right now. He has the points, so this is his prep for the Derby,” Baffert said.

How will the race will unfold? That question is for the Santa Anita Derby handicappers The two Baffert horses have front-running speed and haven’t met before. With the horses having different owners – a partnership headed by SF Racing for Citizen Bull, Amr F. Zedan for Barnes – and the imperative for Barnes to run at least second, Baffert might not be unhappy if Barnes gets the early lead, putting Citizen Bull in position to show if he can sit second.

“I think the break is going to tell everything,” Baffert said.

Michael McCarthy, trainer of Journalism, can hope his horse can sit third or fourth after starting from the No. 1 post and pick off the leaders in the stretch.

“It’s a race that’s obviously a little light on numbers but heavy on talent,” McCarthy said. “It promises to be a good race.”

What you need to know

The Santa Anita Derby is one of the last three major steppingstones to the Kentucky Derby, along with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, in New York, and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, in Lexington, Ky. The Wood will be run Saturday, with Baffert’s Rodriguez shipped east needing to finish third or better to qualify for the Derby. But the Blue Grass was postponed to Tuesday when storm forecasts forced Keeneland to push its Friday and Saturday cards back three days.

Weather is no problem at Santa Anita. Temperatures in the mid-70s, a mostly sunny sky and zero chance of rain are forecast.

The longer-than-usual, 12-race card starts earlier than usual at noon. Four other stakes include the $200,000, Grade II Santa Anita Oaks, with even-money favorite Tenma (Hernandez riding) needing to run third or better and Vodka With a Twist (Antonio Fresu) and others needing to run second or better to make the May 2 Kentucky Oaks.

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