Betting Stuff: Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament Final Four ...0

The Final Four is finally here. On Saturday, Auburn battles Florida, and Duke tangles with Houston. The 4 best teams in the country are all still standing, which means we could be in for a doozy of a national semifinal round.

I previewed the Florida-Auburn game on Tuesday and the Duke-Houston game on Wednesday. Below, you’ll find best bets for Saturday’s action.

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Houston +3 first-half spread vs. Duke (-110 via bet365)

It’s possible Duke is just too talented, too big, and too skilled for the rest of the country to deal with and Houston will be the latest team to get beaten by Jon Scheyer’s group. But Houston also hasn’t been blown out at any point this season and it would be a surprise to see that happen now, this close to the finish line. The last 3 Houston losses have all come in overtime, and none of the 4 defeats have been by more than 5 points. The full-game spread is sitting at 5, so I’m looking to the first-half line.

Duke has only faced 3 top-20 defenses (by KenPom rating) all season. It lost 2 of those 3 games. The last top-20 defense Duke faced was Clemson on Feb. 8, and the Blue Devils scored just 71 points that day. Houston doesn’t give anything easy to its opponents, and though Duke has a clear size advantage, it might take some time for the Blue Devils to feel their way into this one. It’ll be quite the shift moving from Alabama’s defense to Houston’s. 

Florida-Auburn point total under 160.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have only been 15 games in or beyond the Final Four with a total of 160 or more. The under cashed in 10 of those games. 

The regular-season meeting between these 2 teams featured 171 points, and I’ll be shocked if we come close to that number in the rematch. Florida played without Alijah Martin, never pulled off a 10-0 or better run, and still led by as many as 21 points in the second half. Seems a little like an outlier performance. Alex Condon was a huge factor in that game and hasn’t been nearly as effective in his more recent outings. 

Both sides take the 3-ball away from their opponents and both protect the basketball well. Auburn is seventh nationally in turnover rate. Florida is 59th. Auburn’s 29.6% clip on defense is the eighth-best 3-point shot defense in basketball. Florida has the sixth-best. Both defenses force the opposition to rely on 2s, and neither team is an elite 3-point shooting team. Florida has used its spurtability to fuel this Final Four run while Auburn has been outstanding all season at preventing the kinds of runs Florida has made its name on. 

Duke F Cooper Flagg over 4.5 assists (-110 via BetMGM)

Flagg had just 3 assists against Alabama, but he had 7 against Arizona, 6 against Baylor, and 5 in 22 minutes against Mount St. Mary’s. Remove the 15 minutes he played before leaving the Georgia Tech game with an injury, and Flagg has at least 5 assists in 8 of his last 12 games. He averages 5.3 assists per game on the season and has drawn praise all year for his ability to make the smart reads when defenses try to take him away. Houston has to try and take away Flagg. Whether that works is a discussion for another time, but I do wonder if Duke can stretch out Houston’s bigs by running 4-5 pick-and-roll. One way or another, Flagg is going to need his teammates.

Betting Stuff: Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament Final Four Saturday Down South.

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