Numbers released so far this month:
ADP report +155K versus +84K priorISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 priorChallenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 priorEmpire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K priorThe strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather.
Seasonally, BMO reports that that the unemployment rate tends to run low but the headline also tends to run low. Historic data shows 42% of previous unemployment reads in March have been lower-than-expected, 31% have been higher-than- estimates, and 27% have matched the consensus. The headline payrolls print is seasonally soft in February, coming in below estimates 56% of the time and beating 44% of the time, by 73k and 64k, respectively, on average.
This would not be a good time for a big miss.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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