True Grit: Should the Grizzlies Be Taken Seriously as an NBA Title Contender?  ...0

The Memphis Grizzlies showed signs of being a contender before Ja Morant went down. Could they be sleeper contenders in the West?

The NBA isn’t built for surprise contenders.

Each year, there is a small group of teams that could realistically win the title and all of them are talked about ad nauseam in the few months leading into the playoffs. Some would be a bit more surprising, but you know the teams that fit the bill here in 2025.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets in the West. The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors joined this list after the trade deadline. Teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Clippers sit just behind this tier.

But when you talk about winning a conference or NBA title, you’re talking about upside. There’s one team that’s upside hasn’t yet been reached this year but still merits watching: the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies are a team of contrasts, both a bit disappointing this season and yet better than you think. A star that hasn’t played his best and is injured but showed signs of peaking at the right time. A team with a core that has struggled in the playoffs in the past but is better suited for postseason basketball this time around.

The Grizzlies have shown different aspects of a title contender at different points this year but haven’t put it all together for long enough stretches to be taken seriously as a contender.

However, if Memphis can play up to its capability as a team, this could be the rare year when a team nobody is talking about actually makes noise in the postseason.

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The Once and Future Superstar

The case for the Grizzlies starts with the rejuvenation of Ja Morant. Morant seemed destined to become one of the top players in the NBA before legal troubles and injuries caused him to fall in both production and name value. He hasn’t been the same offensive force since returning from last year’s season-ending shoulder injury.

Morant’s numbers are down across the board this year. He’s tied for his worst career field-goal percentage and averaging the most turnovers per game of his career. His free-throw attempts per game, which peaked at 8.1 during his 2022-23 campaign, are down to 6.6. Morant ranks outside the top 50 in DRIP and significantly behind Jaren Jackson Jr. as the best player on the Grizzlies.

Keep in mind, though, that DRIP doesn’t have a medical degree. It is grading Morant solely on his play, not taking into account that he spent the beginning of the year getting back up to speed and trying to adjust his play to avoid further injuries. In the last month before another untimely injury (this time to his hamstring), Morant showed signs of being the weapon he’s been in the past.

He’s looked bouncier than he had all year and has video game numbers in March, averaging 31.3 points on 52% shooting. The free-throw attempts have skyrocketed. In Morant’s first 39 games this season, he shot 10 or more free throws five times. He’s done that in each of his last four games, showcasing his trademarked burst and leaving defenders in the dust.

The old Morant used to leave a trail of defenders clutching at air with his blend of athleticism and relentlessness. He’s shown signs of returning to that form.

Peak Ja Morant can be the offensive anchor of a contender. It’s fair to question whether his body will allow him to be that player throughout a long playoff run.

His latest hamstring injury has kept him out since March 14, though he should be back soon. He’ll have to stay on the court and keep up his performance in March, but there’s proof of concept that Morant can be a difference maker.

A Winning Rotation

If Morant can re-establish himself as an offensive difference-maker, the rest of the Grizzlies fall in line behind him.

Jaren Jackson Jr. was efficient in 2022-23, but he saw his efficiency tumble last season when he was asked to do a lot with Morant sidelined. This season, he’s married the efficiency of 2022-23 with the usage of 2023-24.

Desmond Bane rounds out the top tier of Memphis players and is one of the best movement shooters in the NBA as well as an excellent secondary playmaker off of Morant who is capable of running the show when Morant is on the bench. Defenses can’t leave him for a second, making him the perfect offensive backcourt mate for Morant.

It would be fair to point out this trio has been together for a while and hasn’t really gotten it done in the playoffs. In three postseasons together, Morant, Jackson Jr. and Bane have won one playoff series total.

But these Grizzlies have more ammunition around them on offense. The old Grizzlies didn’t have enough outside shooting surrounding Morant. Teams often helped off everyone except Bane and the Memphis offense was stuck in the mud if Morant didn’t go nuclear.

That’s not the case anymore.

If you look at the three times the Grizzlies were eliminated from the playoffs with this core, 3-point shooting was a problem in each series. Memphis shot 32.9% on 3s while losing to Utah Jazz in 2020-21, 34.2% on 3s while losing to the Warriors in 2021-22 and 31.2% on 3s while losing to the Lakers in 2022-23.

With a step forward from Jackson Jr., a career-best shooting year from Santi Aldama and a passable shooter at small forward in rookie Jaylen Wells, the Grizzlies are better equipped from the outside than ever.

With Jackson Jr.’s shooting success and his perennial versatility on defense (2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year), Memphis has the flexibility to play different styles this season. The team can go small when needed with Jackson Jr. at center and Aldama and Wells at the forward spots.

Need to punish a team down low? That’s what 7-foot-4 Zach Edey is for. Need an infusion of shooting? Luke Kennard is one of the best snipers in the league off the bench.

The loss of Brandon Clarke hurts, but Memphis has enough talent and versatility to compete.

Take That For Data

There are a lot of “ifs” breaking down Memphis’ title chances, but that’s true of most contenders. A lot of things have to go right for a team to win even one playoff series. To win multiple series, most teams need everything to go right.

Also, there are numbers to suggest the Grizzlies belong in the conversation with other contenders. Memphis is one of only five teams with a top five offensive rating and defensive rating. The team is up to eighth in championship odds in TRACR. In terms of point differential, the Grizzlies sit behind only the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics.

It’s possible, perhaps even probable, that things don’t come together as planned for the Grizzlies. Morant might still be hampered by injuries and ineffective or the defense might ask too much of Jackson Jr. in the playoffs. But Memphis is the rare team flying under the radar with a chance to make a run.

For the sake of entertainment, let’s hope the team can reach its tantalizing ceiling.

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True Grit: Should the Grizzlies Be Taken Seriously as an NBA Title Contender?  Opta Analyst.

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