PHOENIX — The next game the Arizona Diamondbacks play will count, as spring training is over and Opening Day is upon us.
The D-backs begin a highly anticipated season on Thursday against the visiting Chicago Cubs.
The excitement coming off a World Series appearance going into last year was felt with Arizona’s highest attendance since 2008, and the team won 89 games for the first time since 2017. The end of the season, however, left a sour taste going into the winter.
With a pair of All-Star additions in pitcher Corbin Burnes and first baseman Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks have set up the roster to continue improving after three straight years of increasing their win total.
The 162-game marathon officially begins at 7:10 p.m. in downtown Phoenix, and the gates to Chase Field open at 5 p.m.
2024 recap
The Diamondbacks had a lot go wrong last season, and they still improved by five wins to finish 89-73. Injuries to the rotation and slow offensive starts for Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez and Gabriel Moreno put the team in a tough spot early. And yet, Arizona led MLB with 5.47 runs per game for the season and produced the third best record after the All-Star break in MLB at 40-25.
Ketel Marte was an MVP candidate until he suffered an ankle injury in August, at which time Carroll and Suarez were humming with elite production in the second half of the year.
The Diamondbacks had a good season in many respects, but it ended in frustration. They lost five of their last seven games and missed the playoffs via tiebreaker with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. A hurricane-caused doubleheader the day after the season ended between Atlanta and New York put the D-backs in an awkward spot, having to watch their postseason hopes end with bags packed for a series in Milwaukee.
Offseason in review
The Diamondbacks picked up Suarez’s team option for $15 million while Christian Walker and Joc Pederson entered the market. Walker signed with Houston and Pederson with Texas, and the D-backs had to pivot. They traded pitcher Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance B draft pick to Cleveland for Naylor, coming off a 31-home run, 108-RBI season.
Then came the big one, the notification that stunned and elated D-backs fans around Christmas. Burnes wanted to sign with Arizona to remain close to his young family, and the two sides came to an agreement for six years, $210 million with an opt-out after 2026. It was the biggest free agent contract in team history for a player who has finished top five in the Cy Young voting for five straight years.
The D-backs rounded out the offseason by bringing back lefty killer Randal Grichuk, signing reliever Kendall Graveman and trying out non-roster invitees who have stepped up such as infielder Garrett Hampson and reliever Shelby Miller.
Biggest bats
Corbin Carroll – Carroll hit 25 home runs with 54 steals as a rookie two years ago, and despite his slow start, he finished fifth in in runs scored and led MLB in triples last year. Carroll has crushed the ball this spring after some bat position adjustments and enters his age 24 season. What kind of absurd numbers could he put up with more consistency? Are 30 home runs and 60 steals on the table?
Ketel Marte – Only one primary second baseman in MLB over the past 20 years hit 35 home runs with a .900 OPS or better in a season, and his name is Ketel Marte, per Stathead. Shohei Ohtani won the NL MVP unanimously for the Dodgers, but before Marte’s injury, the veteran Diamondback stood as Ohtani’s top challenger for the award.
Josh Naylor – Naylor has big shoes to fill as Walker was a terrific Diamondback for a long time. Naylor is not the same player, but he has goals to become a more complete hitter and provide leadership in the clubhouse. Naylor hit .308 with 17 home runs in 2023. He hit .243 with 31 bombs in 2024. Can he successfully weld those two approaches into a dominant offensive profile?
Key pitchers
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Corbin Burnes – Durable, consistent, only 30 years old and extremely routine-oriented, Burnes has a formula he’s used to rack up Cy Young votes and All-Star nods throughout the past half-decade. The Diamondbacks had a surplus of starters going into the winter, but the opportunity to add a star was too beneficial to pass on.
Zac Gallen – Gallen has been Arizona’s frontline starter for years and will lead the club on Opening Day because of that. He was a top five Cy Young race finisher in 2022-23, and after a season in which he was good but not great, Gallen is out to dig deep and provide the D-backs not only an overqualified No. 2 but a 1b.
Justin Martinez – The Diamondbacks entrusted Martinez with a five-year extension after his breakout rookie year in the back end of the bullpen. Not named the closer entering Opening Day, Martinez is expected to earn save opportunities after learning a lot from handling those situations last year. In terms of stuff, Martinez can blast a 102-mph bullet through the zone or throw batters off with a splitter. He was really good last year. How much better can he get?
Breakout candidates
Gabriel Moreno – Moreno has already shown his value as a defensive catcher with an above-average bat. But his upside at the plate is higher, as evidenced by the run he went on in the second half. From July 1 on, Moreno earned a terrific OPS .857 of while hitting .325. Injuries have knocked him out of the lineup in each of his first two seasons with Arizona, so he set off to improve his fitness this winter in order to remain durable.
Alek Thomas – Injuries held Thomas back last season, as he suffered a hamstring strain during the opening series and never looked right when he came back. He’s been terrific in center field this spring, moving more freely than he had after the injuries last year. Thomas has a lot to prove offensively, but if he can even provide league average production at the plate, he becomes a significant contributor to this team given his defensive wizardry.
Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt won the final rotation spot ahead of Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery (who is now injured) this spring. The 26-year-old will continue to work on his development after his first full MLB season in which he led the team in innings pitched. Having pitched great in stretches, including the 2023 postseason, Pfaadt has set out to continue improving his fastball command and implementing his curveball to take another step in establishing himself in a rotation of accomplished veterans.
Drey Jameson – Jameson will start the year in the minor leagues as he continues to build up after missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. An exciting young pitcher with 100-mph heat and a wicked slider, Jameson only has 19 MLB games of experience. The bullpen becomes a different beast if he lives up to his potential.
First time All-Stars?
Merrill Kelly – Kelly has been so steady throughout his D-backs career, as he was top 10 in MLB for innings pitched with a 3.33 ERA between 2022-23. Kelly missed three months last year with a teres major strain, and his consistent presence in the rotation was greatly missed. He has been healthy and sharp this spring. A solid start for both Kelly and the D-backs could put him in the conversation.
A.J. Puk/Justin Martinez – Martinez and Puk splitting saves could become tricky when it comes to separating All-Stars, but if the Diamondbacks play up to their potential and these two relievers continue to pitch to the form they showed last year, why couldn’t one of them make it? Puk worked a 1.32 ERA as a D-back last year. There are only so many spots for relievers, but he was one of the best in baseball after the trade deadline.
Gabriel Moreno – The NL has some studs behind the plate, but Moreno finished fifth in the league with 2.6 rWAR despite two IL stints. Milwaukee’s William Contreras is expected to be a lock if healthy, L.A.’s Will Smith and Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto are also in contention. Moreno is right there, though, and a breakout offensively paired with his strong defense could make a compelling case.
Jake McCarthy – McCarthy earned the everyday center field job last year with his most complete major league season to date. And for an All-Star bid, a player has to get hot during the first three months of the season to contend. McCarthy was on fire last summer. For 33 games starting on July 1, he hit .363. Add in the ability to swipe 25-30 bases on the season and solid outfield defense, and McCarthy has the tools to make a push.
National League outlook
The National League has a lot of talent with the Dodgers as the favorite to repeat as champs. Los Angeles added Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to the rotation. Ohtani is set to pitch at some point this year, as well.
The Braves getting healthy is scary, with 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. expected back from a torn ACL in May and ace Spencer Strider returning to the rotation in April.
The Mets signed superstar Juan Soto and retained Pete Alonso, while the Cubs traded for Houston All-Star Kyle Tucker.
The Diamondbacks have not backed down, and anything can happen in the playoffs as they displayed in 2023. It is really hard to win back-to-back pennants because a lot has to go right not only to get to October but in the postseason. The Dodgers in 2017-18 was the last club to repeat as NL champions. Before them, it was the 2008-09 Phillies.
Earning a spot in the postseason will be a challenge given the league’s depth, which should make for fascinating, high-level baseball this season.
Diamondbacks testimonials
General manager Mike Hazen – “I like that there’s a level of excitement around our team. I’m happy for that. But expectations and excitement are just that. They’re not performance and results, and that’s what we’re going to start chasing tomorrow. There are a bunch of teams in the National League that I look at that have huge expectations, and I think that indicates the level of competition that’s going to be in the National League that we’re going to have to contend with. And we have to go do it, and you have to back up what you think you are with who you ultimately become.”
Zac Gallen – “I think now it’s just the energy, the vibe around this team, the excitement that we have about ourselves in the clubhouse and what’s at stake and what we’re hopefully able to accomplish. I think that’s my favorite part about going into Opening Day this year.”
Jake McCarthy – “We appreciate the expectation there, and we also want to hold ourselves to that. We expect great things out of this clubhouse. We just try to go out and play our hardest every day, hopefully that leads to a lot of wins.”
Diamondbacks roster
Starting rotation
Thursday: Zac Gallen Friday: Merrill Kelly Saturday: Brandon Pfaadt Sunday: Eduardo Rodriguez Tuesday: Corbin Burnes
Diamondbacks bullpen (closer TBD)
Justin Martinez A.J. Puk Ryan Thompson Joe Mantiply Jalen Beeks Shelby Miller Bryce Jarvis Ryne Nelson
Diamondbacks hitters
C: Gabriel Moreno, Jose Herrera 1B: Josh Naylor, Pavin Smith 2B: Ketel Marte 3B: Eugenio Suarez SS: Geraldo Perdomo, Garrett Hampson OF: Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Key injuries
RHP Kevin Ginkel (shoulder) RHP Kendall Graveman (back) LHP Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) INF Blaze Alexander (oblique)
Diamondbacks projections/expectations
FanDuel Sportsbook – 86.5 wins, -118 playoffs Baseball Prospectus – 87.3-74.7, Wild Card FanGraphs – 86-76, Wild Card ESPN – 87-75, Wild Card The Athletic’s Keith Law – 90-72, Wild Card
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