Enab Baladi – Omar Alaa Eldin
Political divisions, sanctions, external interventions, and the socio-economic policies pursued by the Assad regime have led Syrian society into a state of severe fragmentation, threatening an uncertain future on both social and economic fronts.
“We must rebuild our country. It is true that there are difficulties, but nothing is impossible,” said Ahmed al-Sharaa, the transitional Syrian president, on February 10 of last year, adding, “We inherited a completely devastated state due to the previous regime. But this is the challenge we must face as Syrians.”
To what extent does this challenge cast a shadow over the already fragile Syrian society, affected by a crisis described by UN Assistant-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator, Joyce Msuya, as a “huge humanitarian crisis” impacting over 70% of the population?
The halt of several economic projects, rising unemployment in Syria, along with the daily challenges brought on by local policies and western sanctions, and the war that has persisted for 14 years, burden the interim government in Damascus, while also hinting at unpredictable scenarios awaiting the Syrians.
Banking and economic expert Amer Shahda warned of the collapse of the Syrian state if the surrounding economic stagnation continues. He pointed out that the UN’s figures presented in its recent report on the social and economic state in Syria are inaccurate, accusing it of pushing the country toward the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trap.
Meanwhile, Talal Mustafa, a sociology professor at the University of Damascus and researcher at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, predicted that the scenario of the living crisis would continue in the short term at a minimum, given the absence of radical changes in economic policies.
Damascus government’s efforts
Ibrahim al-Ibrahim, the Assistant Minister of Social Affairs in the interim Damascus government, told Enab Baladi that the ministry is working in cooperation with humanitarian partners to mitigate the impacts of the halt in some economic projects, despite the current inability to bridge the significant gap resulting from reduced job opportunities.
The Ministry of Social Affairs is also working on developing rural development centers, aimed at training families in professions that help them achieve self-sufficiency. It is paying special attention to small and sustainable projects that enable families to be economically self-reliant, according to al-Ibrahim.
The Assistant Minister of Social Affairs indicated that efforts are underway to enhance the return of displaced families to their villages in collaboration with several humanitarian organizations, aiming to reduce the economic and social burdens resulting from the halt in support in some areas.
According to al-Ibrahim, the pursuit continues to secure opportunities for the unemployed through cooperation with various sectors, including the private and mixed sectors, in addition to providing vocational training programs covering different specialties to prepare individuals for the labor market.
Regarding the distribution of humanitarian assistance in the country currently, especially since 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, the Assistant Minister of Social Affairs and Labor in Syria confirmed that the ministry has deployed statistical teams to assess the conditions of Syrian families in terms of financial status and essential needs, prioritizing people with disabilities and the most vulnerable groups. Assistance is then directed based on updated data to ensure support reaches those who truly deserve it in the best possible manner.
Three scenarios
Considering the economic situation, Talal Mustafa, a researcher at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, predicted three scenarios regarding the future of Syrian society:
Scenario one: The ongoing living and economic crisis worsens in the absence of political solutions in the country, lacking democratic political transition. This scenario is characterized by deteriorating living conditions, rising rates of immigration, unemployment, inflation, and decreased purchasing power, especially with the dismissal of many workers. This scenario reinforces social disintegration and increases Syrians’ reliance on humanitarian aid.
Scenario two: Gradual adaptation to the living crisis. Some Syrians have shown adaptability to the crisis in recent years, relying on remittances from abroad and increasing small businesses, especially in rural areas, which can secure the minimum necessary. This scenario can provide alternative solutions if the local economy expands through local financial exchanges and the employment of simple capital that can alleviate part of the problem.
Scenario three: Economic recovery, but it is contingent upon genuine economic reforms and economic opening, conditioned by partial or complete political integration. If the political parties in Syria reach political agreements, it is possible to lighten the sanctions, as witnessed in recent times. This recovery may lead to a revival of certain economic sectors, but it requires structural reforms in the economy and rebuilding trust between the new state and society.
Mustafa sees Syrian society as hostage to upcoming political transformations, leaning toward the first scenario (the continued living crisis) in the short term at a minimum. According to the researcher, there are clearly no indicators of radical changes in the policies that could open the door to new opportunities.
Developmental void
Banking expert Amer Shahda believes that Syria is currently experiencing a developmental void, amid the absence of development projects supported by the state, resulting from the lack of financial support for the interim government in Damascus.
The expert confirmed to Enab Baladi that it is not possible to solve the problem of the developmental void without increasing financial support for the government and without having banking, monetary, and financial policies.
Had the Syrian government had financial support, it would have proposed a general economic policy, thus a sectoral policy based on the government’s vision for each sector individually and its growth, according to Shahda.
The economic expert continued, “Unfortunately, to date, no one has proposed an economic vision or a general strategy for the Syrian economy,” and delays in addressing this matter, according to Shahda, could deepen the problems that the country is already facing and raise the costs of solving them. No economist can currently determine the fate of the economy in the long or short term.
Regarding the short- and long-term effects of rising unemployment and the lack of purchasing power on the Syrian economy, Shahda believes that these phenomena will lead to social disasters “with regrettable consequences,” as crime, theft, and murder will proliferate, and society will head toward unethical directions, in addition to the spread of drugs and other social afflictions.
According to the economic expert, the lack of purchasing power will lead to a decline in local production until it halts, thereby increasing unemployment, followed by the emigration of capital abroad, a decline in local and foreign investments, and possibly a significant decrease in exports.
All these combined factors, according to Shahda, will inevitably weaken the state’s financial capabilities, which could mean its collapse, and this is a very dangerous situation in the short term, as we are heading in this direction and are not outside of it, as the expert stated.
Social effects
Unemployment and a lack of developmental projects adversely affect social stability, as confirmed by sociology professor Talal Mustafa, as they lead to increased poverty rates and greater class disparity, which Mustafa described as “sharp disparity” between 10% representing a small class benefiting from the current economic situation, and 90% suffering from poverty.
Mustafa added that the current economic distress has led to a significant rise in crime rates, with most crimes being theft, kidnapping, and fraud.
Syria ranks first in the Arab world in crime level according to the crime measurement index in the Numbeo database.
The social impacts of the economic distress, according to Mustafa, extend to difficult choices such as child labor and begging, and naturally, all these combined issues will inevitably lead to a lack of security stability, which will convey a sense of “absence of hope for the future, frustration, and despair,” culminating in the spread of psychological disorders in society, especially depression.
The social researcher also addressed other social problems arising from the economic distress that indeed affect society, chief among them family disintegration, which is denoted by high divorce rates and low marriage rates.
Mustafa believes that the new government has not yet proven its economic presence, and it should strive to find external and internal funds to support the economic process and reconstruction.
United Nations figures… Lacking accuracy?
On February 20th, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a report estimating that Syria would need at least 50 years to restore its economic levels to those before the war, assuming strong growth is achieved.
According to the report, the poverty rate has risen from 33% before the war to 90% currently, while the extreme poverty rate stands at 66%.
Economist Amer Shahda questioned the extreme poverty rate of 66%, stating that the Syrian people are experiencing an extreme poverty rate of 90%, based on metrics from the World Food Programme (WFP).
Shahda asked, “Can the United Nations disclose the economic indicators it relied on in its report that stated Syria would restore its economy by 2080?”
The economist clarified that there are no accurate economic indicators in Syria, and the figures presented by the UNDP are a signal to push Syria into the arms of the International Monetary Fund. He added, “They are trying to kill the spirit of initiative in Syria and trying to crush the spirit of Syrians in building their country.”
The expert called on the UNDP to declare the real economic indicators used in the published report and the true number of Syrians inside and outside the country, which were referenced in determining the unemployment and poverty rates.
The UNDP report stated that 9 out of 10 people in Syria live in poverty, and that one in four are unemployed.
It noted that 75% of the population requires humanitarian assistance, including healthcare, education, employment, food security, water, energy, and shelter.
The report highlighted that energy production in the country has decreased by 80%, and 70% of electricity generation stations have been damaged, leading to a 75% drop in the national grid’s capacity.
The UNDP report indicated that between 40% and 50% of children aged 6 to 15 do not attend school, and about one-third of housing units have been destroyed or severely damaged during the years of conflict, leaving 5.7 million people in Syria in need of shelter support.
The UN report warned of the continued slow growth rate currently experienced in Syria (1.3% annually) and emphasized that this would extend the time needed for economic recovery to more than half a century.
In the year before the outbreak of the war, according to the UN assessment, Syria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $62 billion, with a growth rate exceeding 5% over the previous five years. Currently, the GDP is less than half of that.
Economic pressures on society: Future scenarios for Syria Enab Baladi.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Economic pressures on society: Future scenarios for Syria )
Also on site :
- Cano Health Announces Eric Jenkins as Chief Executive Officer
- Macy’s is starting to close 66 stores across the country. See the full closure list
- African workers are taking on Meta and the world should pay attention