MLB writers Zach Crizer and Ryan Fagan make their 2025 picks for all the major awards: MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, plus Comeback Player of the Year.
Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, rinse and repeat? Not so fast.
Though Major League Baseball has some absolute titans gobbling up the black ink and gold-plated plaques, 162 games of baseball always produces surprises. Which young players will take leaps forward? Can anyone slow down the rise of Paul Skenes? And how will Ohtani look once he’s in pursuit of hitting and pitching glory once again?
Ahead of opening day, it’s time to do some ill-fated forecasting of the award winners. Last year, MLB writers Ryan Fagan and Zach Crizer didn’t do too badly, combining to correctly pick Tarik Skubal as AL Cy Young, and name eventual winners Chris Sale and Skenes as dark horses for the National League’s Cy Young and Rookie of the Year nods.
Below, they make this year’s selections for all the major awards: MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, plus Comeback Player of the Year:
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2 days ago Craig HaleyAL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Witt’s 2024 season was incredible, no doubt. The shortstop led the AL in hits (211) and batting average (.332), to go along with 125 runs scored, 109 RBIs, 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers and 31 stolen bases. Folks, he’s still getting better. Notice how his walks have increased every year while his strikeouts have dipped? You saw how his raw defensive ability turned into elite defensive production last year. With Ohtani in the NL now and Aaron Judge without his buddy Juan Soto in the lineup, the door is open for Witt to step up and earn the trophy.
The Dark Horse: Expectations were so high for Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers that his debut season, which included a 3.9 WAR, 16 homers, 19 stolen bases and 25 doubles, was considered pretty disappointing. This season is probably too early to even put him in the “dark horse” category, but it’s also probably the last season he’ll actually fit this category. You can bet Rangers fans have been thinking about the way he finished the season, with a .300 average, .996 OPS, eight homers, 20 RBIs and seven stolen bases in 26 games in September. That’s the talent Langford has.
– Fagan
NL MVP: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s canon at this point that Carroll solved his sophomore slump in dramatic fashion with a little help from Joc Pederson and his personal hitting coach Marlon Byrd. On July 29, a struggling Carroll sought help from Byrd and something about the fresh set of eyes, the fresh message, put him back on track.
From that day forward, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year ripped off a .267/.358/.573 line and accrued all-around value at a rate rivaling Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor. Five years younger than either of those proven MVP contenders, the diminutive but explosive outfielder has room to keep growing and seize the throne.
The Dark Horse: Injuries and streakiness have interrupted periods of superlative production for Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II, but it’s too early to think the clay is dried. It’s true that he has rarely put everything together for an extended amount of time, but Harris is sitting on a combination of contact, power and defensive skills that could gel into a special season if the conditions are right.
– Crizer
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
The last pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Youngs was Jacob deGrom in 2018-19, and Skubal increasingly appears ready to make that kind of statement. Since returning from injury in July 2023, Skubal has laid down 272.1 innings of utter domination. Over that span, he ranks first among starters in strikeout rate, fifth in walk rate, second in home run rate and first in ERA. He also led all qualified pitchers with a 133 whiff+ and 123 strike+.
Pumping 97 mph from the left side, he has hitters playing Russian roulette every time they try to guess between his four-seam fastball, changeup and sinker. A repeat is somehow the easiest thing to envision.
The Dark Horse: One of the Seattle Mariners’ stable of excellent young arms, Bryan Woo has a very particular, very potent superpower. He can, and does, throw his fastball right down Main Street and get whiffs. Thanks to a low arm angle and gravity-defying jump, he has a fantastic base that keeps him in command (above-average 105 command+). If he can amp up the rest of the arsenal even a little bit, he’s going to be dangerous.
– Crizer
NL Cy Young: Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Obviously, Paul Skenes is the overwhelming favorite, and if he stays healthy, he’ll win. But that’s a boring pick, right? I was talking with MLB Network analyst Dan Plesac earlier this month about a couple other topics, and before I wrapped up the interview, I asked him if there were any pitchers he felt were ready for a big breakthrough in 2025. He didn’t hesitate, “Hunter Greene,” he said. I told him that Greene has been my perennial dark horse Cy Young candidate each of the past couple years, to which Plesac responded: “Don’t jump off that boat now! Keep that life jacket on, man. I’m buying. I think this is the year he breaks through!”
Greene showed last year that he’s learning how to harness his immense ability. His four-seam velocity dropped a touch, but he still averaged 97.6 mph. His H/9 plummeted (from 8.9 to 5.7), his hard-hit percentage dropped (from 44.1 to 32.5) and his ERA/FIP did the same (from 4.82 to 2.75). And a look at his raw value+ shows he already was elite last year. His RV+ of 61 was right in line with Cy Young winners Chris Sale (61) and Tarik Skubal (64).
So, yeah. I’m listening to Plesac and predicting this is the year Greene overcomes the challenges of his home park and wins his first NL Cy Young Award.
The Dark Horse: Atlanta Braves young right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach has rather incredible control – his walk rate was an elite 4.4% as a rookie – considering he throws six pitches on a regular basis. In his first 21 MLB starts last year, he posted a 3.35 ERA/3.29 FIP with a K/9 of 9.2. Is he the next Atlanta starter to make a major impact early in his career?
– Fagan
AL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers
Really, take your pick. Jobe is considered the top pitching prospect in the game by some evaluators, so he’s a solid choice. In Boston, phenom Kristian Campbell got the nod to start the season in the bigs, and both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer are just waiting for their shot at regular MLB at-bats. If Jasson Dominguez can stay healthy, he could have a big year for the Yankees. The guy who is our dark horse only has that status because the Royals seem intent on keeping him in the minors for at least a couple months. The AL is stacked with rookies who could make a huge impact this year (hi, Kumar Rocker!).
As for the choice of Jobe, his stuff is just ridiculous. The Tigers have carefully and patiently tried to develop him through the minors, as they worked on refining his repertoire. For example, he’s ditched his curveball in favor of a slider and cutter. And you saw the level of faith manager A.J. Hinch had in the youngster when he used him in key playoff situations despite only pitching 4.0 innings in the MLB regular season.
The Dark Horse: Sure, it’s early, but Jac Caglianone is already looking like a steal as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. The Kansas City Royals brought him to big-league camp this spring to give him a taste of better pitching, and he responded by looking big-league ready. Spring training numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but he hit .500 with three homers and three doubles and more walks than strikeouts in 23 plate appearances. He’s ticketed for Double-A to get more experience and maybe learn a corner outfield spot, but his bat could get him promoted sooner than the Royals expected a few months ago.
– Fagan
NL Rookie of the Year: Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves
Roki Sasaki of the World Series winners might be the easy pick, but Atlanta felt confident enough in Baldwin’s 2024 tour de force in Triple-A to let Travis d’Arnaud walk this winter. Then, when Sean Murphy went down in spring training, they felt confident enough to tap him as the starting catcher. This Braves regime has never been short on trust for its young talent, but it has often been rewarded. If Baldwin, who displayed a serious proclivity for getting on base in the minors, makes the leap effectively, he’s going to rack up a ton of value and earn some well-deserved plaudits at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond.
The Dark Horse: I’d be lying if I said I could tell you where the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Nick Yorke, a former Boston Red Sox first round pick, will slot into the lineup. He has played second base, outfield and some first base without thrilling at any of them, but this bat is going to demand a spot in an otherwise underwhelming Pirates lineup. He makes a ton of contact and makes strong swing decisions. With a little major-league run and some time – things the Pirates should be willing to offer – he might be able to actualize that base of skills into some pop.
– Crizer
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Look, Comeback Player of the Year might be the only realm in which the Angels can be called favorites for anything, but they are bursting at the seams with candidates – from Trout to reclamation projects like Tim Anderson to youngsters returning from injury like Logan O’Hoppe. Let’s dream on Trout galloping through a full season unscathed. The bat still plays. He had a well above-average 129 RV+ and a league-best 135 discipline+ among those with at least 125 plate appearances in 2024. Anything approaching 500 plate appearances would merit consideration for a generational star.
The Dark Horse: This might be stretching the definition of “comeback” since Spencer Torkelson hasn’t really made it anywhere he’d want to go back to in the majors, but the sentiment might work anyway. The Detroit Tigers slugger looked like a lock for production as the No. 1 overall pick out of college, but it hasn’t clicked yet. A strong spring has followed a sojourn in the minors that would deflate many. If he finds his rhythm, recognition could follow.
– Crizer
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
The definition of “comeback player” is pretty vague. Does Ronald Acuna Jr. count? He wasn’t his MVP self, but he did have 222 plate appearances. What about Kyle Tucker, now with the Chicago Cubs? Are we limiting it to someone like Matt McLain, who missed all of 2024 after an outstanding half-season rookie debut? Spencer Strider only made two starts last year, so he certainly counts and he showed that electric stuff again in his late-spring outings. All three make great choices.
We’re going with Alcantara, though. The 2022 NL Cy Young is fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery he had in October 2023, and he looked fantastic this spring. He’s a workhorse, on the mound and in the training room, and appears determined to show that he can once again be an elite starter. Don’t bet against him.
The Dark Horse: Does Cooperstown-bound right-hander Justin Verlander have one (or more) All-Star caliber season left in that golden right arm? He made 17 starts last year, but produced the worst numbers of his career for the Astros with a 5.48 ERA, career-worst 9.8 H/9 and career-low 7.4 K/9. He’s looked healthy and effective this spring for the San Francisco Giants, though, and haven’t we learned not to count out Verlander?
– Fagan
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