In a glitzy hotel in Saudi Arabia, the US is locked in separate ceasefire negotiations with Russia and Ukraine.
The talks are aimed at establishing a “ceasefire light” – an agreement which imposes certain conditions for a pause in fighting, rather than a wholesale end to the war.
Trump has reportedly given an Easter deadline for the talks to bear fruit – but Putin seems intent on stalling.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian delegation said yesterday that talks so far with the US have been “productive and focused”, particularly over energy.
How might the Kremlin delay – and what would it take to get a deal from them?
The Kremlin has allegedly sent a delegation of lower-level, technical officials who have been told to discuss general issues, in a bid to slow the talks down.
These include a security service veteran who is particularly disliked in Kyiv for his role at the start of the war, according to Bloomberg.
“These are relatively technical people who can ensure the talks aren’t rushed, to slow Trump down,” Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation think tank, told the news agency.
It has also set out a series of extreme – and arguably unrealistic – demands for an agreement.
Russia wants not only to gain control of large swathes of territory, but to ensure Ukraine is effectively eliminated as a military threat by reducing its army size, banning it from joining Nato and preventing military support from its allies.
A general view of the Ritz-Carlton hotel, where talks between Russia and U.S. are being held aimed at ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 24, 2025. (Photo: REUTERS/Mohammed Benmansour)It also may push to reform Ukraine domestically, forcing elections, imposing a federal system and making Russian a second state language.
Starting with a maximalist position will inevitably slow the talks, as mediators work to find common ground.
Russia has simultaneously ramped up its attacks on Ukraine, in a bid to pile pressure on the Ukrainian delegation.
Over the weekend, at least three people, including a five-year-old girl and her father, were killed in drone strikes on residential buildings in the capital.
A further 10 other people were injured including an 11-month-old child, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.
Focus on Black Sea deal instead
Today’s talks are reportedly focused on a deal around the Black Sea, which divides Europe and Russia and is a key export route for Ukrainian grain.
Russia is keen to revive a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey in 2022, which allowed Ukraine to continue exporting grain without Russian attack through the Black Sea.
In return, Russia got some relief from western sanctions and could export farm produce and fertiliser across the Black Sea.
However, it pulled out of the deal in 2023, saying that its exports had faced serious obstacles.
The Kremlin confirmed Monday that the deal was back on the cards in the Saudi Arabian talks, saying that Trump had raised it as a topic and that Putin had agreed to discuss it.
Two men look over the damaged nineteen-story hotel “Odessa”, in the port city of Odesa, on the Black Sea in southern Ukraine on 19 March 2025. (Photo: Oleksandr Gimanov/AFP)Alex Petric, senior analyst on the Eurasia team at intelligence company Janes, said Russia’s talks would likely “stay within narrow constraints of ensuring safe commercial shipping – a naval ceasefire – within the Black Sea.”
“It’s very unlikely Russia would, at this meeting, want to discuss broad comprehensive ceasefire,” he said.
This perception is backed up by the decision to send mid-ranking delegations from both the US and the Kremlin, Petric said.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has produced a “higher, state level” delegation, indicating they “want to push for a hurried broad ceasefire”.
“Russia very likely wants to put an end to reportedly Ukrainian actions against the security of Black Sea’s underwater pipeline ‘Turk Stream’ supplying Russian gas to Turkey,” he said.
“Russia also wants to get quid-pro-quo lifting of agricultural sanctions, with Western companies to again allow Russian agricultural banks to relaunch their participation in the SWIFT payments system, receiving revenue from grain and fertiliser exports.
“Thirdly, Russia would want inspecting capability of maritime shipping arriving into Ukrainian ports like Odesa, checking if these inbound ships carry any weapons shipments to Ukraine.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Contributor/Getty Images)Petric said that there was “almost no chance” of Ukraine achieving a broader ceasefire from the current talks, so the best case outcome would be a maritime ceasefire which is agreed to mutual satisfaction, where Ukraine is able to increase its grain exports which then leads to improvement in its economic situation.
The worst case would be if talks on Black Sea naval ceasefire break down and Ukraine’s grain exports fall in volumes and value, Petric said.
Firefighters put out the fire at a storehouse following a Russian attack in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine (Photo: Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)Neil Melvin, Director of International Security at defence thinktank RUSI, said the Saudi talks were best seen as a “confidence building” process.
“They’re starting with the areas where they’re perhaps politically less contentious. The territorial issue is a very difficult one, because it probably will involve Ukraine having to accept – at least temporarily and possibly longer term – that is may have lost some of its territory,” he said.
“Maritime security is one area where they probably can reach some kind of agreement without having to go into these difficult issues.”
Hope Trump loses interest
Melvin said that Putin was not inclined to make a peace deal because he “feels he is winning the war” – and has the economic resource to continue it for at least a year.
Putin is under “very little domestic pressure in terms of the losses of the war”, the expert said.
“The economic situation is causing some tensions, but most estimates are that the Russian economy can be managed for at least another year to 18 months before there starts to be major problems,” he said.
“But of course, he doesn’t want to say to Donald Trump that he’s against the ceasefire, because he feels he can neutralise the US as a factor in the conflict by keeping them engaged in the ceasefire negotiations,” he added. “I think he’s basically planning to slow walk the process.”
Putin may also be hoping that Trump “ends up losing interest after a while because he can’t get the quick win by Easter”, Melvin said.
In this grab taken from a handout footage released by the Kremlin on 12 March 2025, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin Putin visits a command point for the Kursk group of troops involved in the counteroffensive in the Kursk region. (Photo by Handout: Kremlin)Petric said that the Kremlin’s commitment to its “key goals” of the war would delay its agreement to a ceasefire.
“If the Kremlin wishes to resolve the conflict to its satisfaction, this ‘stalling’ is absolutely necessary, as there’s many ‘aspects’ to resolve,” he said.
“To conclude a quick all-encompassing ceasefire, from Russia’s perspective, would be to hand an undeserved victory to Ukraine and its western partners and there is almost no chance Kremlin would do that.”
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