SCOTTSDALE — The Arizona Diamondbacks would have to buck recent history to lead Major League Baseball in scoring again.
No club has scored the most runs in consecutive years since the 2009-10 New York Yankees, who won the World Series in 2009.
The Diamondbacks rallied for 886 runs last season, an average of 5.47 per contest. The Los Angeles Dodgers were second with 842 runs, the widest gap between No. 1 to No. 2 since 2015 when the Toronto Blue Jays blew everyone away with 891 runs.
On one hand, regression is expected in certain respects, as general manager Mike Hazen has called it unlikely they repeat as scoring leaders. Arizona lost sluggers Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, who combined for 49 home runs and 148 RBIs.
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In turn, Arizona traded for All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor, while improvements from a young core can help make up the difference.
The D-backs also dealt with key injuries last season, as shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, outfielder Alek Thomas, catcher Gabriel Moreno, second baseman (and MVP finalist) Ketel Marte and Walker spent time on the injured list.
Add in high expectations for Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez to build off strong second half performances — after a miserable first three months — and therein lies a case for Arizona’s return to the top of the leaderboards.
“I don’t see why we can’t do that again,” assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye told Arizona Sports Wolf & Luke. “We had half a season with Corbin who really struggled, and Suarez as well early on.
“If we stay healthy, you see what these guys are doing on the field, and Marte looks like he hasn’t missed a step … You certainly can’t sit here and say we’re going to replicate last year’s performance. But I don’t see why we can’t. We have very talented players, I think our lineup is very deep.”
What will the Diamondbacks’ offensive identity look like in 2025?
The Diamondbacks scored runs differently in 2024 than they had in 2023, when they made the playoffs. The next version of this offense, manager Torey Lovullo said, will have its own flavor.
Arizona hit 211 home runs last year, well ahead of 166 home runs in 2023.
The 2023 Diamondbacks stole 166 bases, which were second to Cincinnati. In 2024, Arizona stole 119 bags, ranking 15th after their chaos moniker a year before. Both clubs finished top five in extra bases taken, as they were excellent baserunning groups overall.
“We did that last year, nobody can take that away from us,” Lovullo said. “This year’s team is ambitious. This team is a little different in a lot of ways, but I want them to be the best version of themselves and not try to duplicate anything. I want them to have their own identity.”
Certain similarities were fundamental.
Put in simplest terms, the Diamondbacks over the past two years have not struck out often and worked a lot of walks. They finished top five in strikeout rate both years at just over 20%, while the 2024 squad improved its walk rate from 8.8% (13th) to 9.1% (fifth).
With that, they led the league in on-base percentage. Have a quality at-bat is gospel, which can help alleviate some potential regression.
The personnel is similar to last season, but with some of the power gone, there could be more “chaos” to be created to manufacture runs. Getting a more consistent year from Carroll, who scored from first on a single the other day, would surely help with that. He has 89 steals since 2023 and led the league triples twice.
“I think it takes getting in the season (to find that identity) once you have a consistent big league lineup every day,” hitting coach Joe Mather told Arizona Sports.
“I think it probably looks very similar, but potentially more stolen bases, more bunts for hits, just kind of chaos on the bases, but I think it looks similar.”
Corbin Carroll is the X-factor
Carroll had a season unlike anything he’s experienced in baseball last year. He could not hit for the first three months, as offseason adjustments left his swing plane flat and vulnerable to pitchers who exposed it. Sixty games in, his OPS was a measly .557, second lowest in MLB among qualified hitters.
By the end of the season, Carroll was performing at a level that rivaled the best hitters in baseball. From July 29 on, his .931 OPS ranked 10th in MLB, and he amazingly finished the year fifth in runs scored. And now he has that experience and confidence knowing he’s pushed past the struggle.
“I think there was a mix of some mechanical things I worked on and then approach as well, trying to dictate what I’m going to do at the plate and not let the pitcher do that,” Carroll told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo this spring.
If he builds off his second half, Carroll (still only 24 years old) can return to his All-Star stature after he finished fifth in the NL MVP race as a rookie in 2023.
Carroll adjusted his hand positioning with the bathead pointed skyward, as he is not backing off making changes he feel will pay off.
This spring, he has crushed the ball with four homers and an .848 slug through 12 games.
Ketel Marte was so good last year
In a mansion of sliding doors last year, Marte’s ankle injury in August cannot be overlooked. The D-backs tried to keep him off the IL by playing him sparingly at first before the inevitable came following a pair of collapses at the plate.
The time between the injury and his IL return spanned nearly a month before which time he was clearly the main threat to Shohei Ohtani’s MVP chase.
Marte before the injury was top three in the NL in fWAR (5.1), home runs (29) and OPS (.922), trailing two designated hitters in the latter stat while providing stellar defense at second base.
He crushed the ball coming off the IL (.944 OPS) and finished third in the MVP voting.
In 2023, Carroll was seen as the engine for Arizona’s offense. Last year, it was Marte. In 2025, the two boast the potential to make up one of the nastiest 1-2 punches in MLB.
Lineup depth should be a strength
Arizona arguably had the most lineup depth in terms of competence in MLB last year. The D-backs led the league with 10 players earning an average 100 OPS+ or better (minimum 250 plate appearances).
“It was a really deep lineup, one through nine put pressure on the pitcher, whether it was long (at-bats), walks, hits,” Mather said.
“That was the key, that we had anywhere from nine to 15 guys it felt like. Guys were hurt, guys came up, filled that role and just continued to put pressure on guys. If we can grind starting pitchers, get into the bullpen quick, we’re gonna have another really good offense.”
Losing two power bats and replacing them with one puts an emphasis on development. Perdomo, Moreno and outfielder Jake McCarthy are members of the young core who each improved from the year before.
Perdomo signed an extension, having proved his worth as a clubhouse leader and strong defender with elite plate discipline. Moreno is looking for greater consistency after a terrific second half, injury aside.
McCarthy moved past an odd 2023 (77 OPS+) with a much more effective campaign that landed him the everyday center field job (109 OPS+).
“I think we’re a really well-rounded lineup,” McCarthy told Burns & Gambo. “You’re asking about power, and I think that will show up when it does. But I think we have one through nine and guys off our bench, whatever the lineup looks like, I feel like we all give really good at-bats. You hinted at the baserunning. I think that’s super important. Everyone kind of knows their role.”
Retaining Randal Grichuk helps, especially against left-handed pitchers.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hasn’t had a below-average season at the plate since his debut in 2018, while Suarez rivaled Carroll and Marte for hottest bat in the lineup at the end of last year.
Suarez, like Carroll, struggled to find much success in the first half, but pitchers could not get him out over the final two months of the season (.981 OPS over his last 60 games). He used winter ball in Venezuela to stay hot and has continued to hit well in spring training. He’s hit 30 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons.
Josh Naylor, the newest bat in the lineup
Naylor is the most notable offensive newcomer on the team, and his profile over the past two seasons creates a lot of intrigue.
In 2023, he only hit 17 bombs but unloaded 31 doubles, hitting .308 with an .842 OPS. In 2024, he blasted 31 homers with 108 RBIs, but he hit .243 with a .776 OPS.
His strikeout rates in both years have been much better (lower) than league average, and he improved his walk rate to a career-best 9.2% in 2024.
This year, Naylor has set out to show the best of both worlds, a more complete hitter.
“Pure hitter,” Mather said. “He’ll hit homers but is looking to hit a ball hard on the line, regardless of where. He’s showing the ability to walk this spring. He’s generally a pretty aggressive hitter, but if he’s able to put everything together in his career, this could shape up to be his best year yet.”
He’s been very clear with how he feels about spring training stats, but who could complain about a .432 average?
More questions for the Diamondbacks’ offense
Can Pavin Smith find consistency in a DH role?
Losing Pederson is a big deal after a career year with 23 home runs and a .903 OPS.
Pavin Smith appears primed for a greater role against right-handed pitchers after his best MLB stretch last year (.896 OPS, nine home runs in 60 games).
Smith has been a Quad-A player for much of his D-backs tenure, but he is now out of options. Arizona’s leaders have long been bullish of his offensive capabilities, and the adjustments he made to perform strongly last year will be tested with a brighter spotlight.
“I feel very confident,” Smith told Burns & Gambo. “I’m not trying to be like Joc, but I definitely learned a lot watching him be the DH last year … You have a lot of time to think about your last at-bat. You’re not going out and playing defense, so you can kind of dwell on mistakes that you make. And he did a good job of not doing that.”
Can Alek Thomas be a viable everyday option?
Last year was a lost season for Thomas, who only played 39 games due to multiple injuries and an option as he struggled to find a rhythm after coming off the IL.
His impact on the 2023 club was notable given his Gold Glove-contending defense and a bat that, while inconsistent, came up big in the postseason.
He has looked the part defensively this spring, making tough plays going to the wall look routine. Starter Ryne Nelson joked that it is usually not a good sign to see the number on his outfielder’s back, but that’s a bit different with Thomas.
With a deep outfield group, though, he’s going to have to be better than his career 73 OPS+ to challenge for consistent starts.
What will Jordan Lawlar’s impact be?
The Diamondbacks optioned their top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, to Triple-A Reno on Wednesday, as the club wants him to play everyday while he makes up reps he lost in an injury-laden 2024 season.
Lawlar had a promising spring, but with the Diamondbacks’ starting infield already set. Perdomo signed an extension this spring, drawing further questions about Lawlar’s future at shortstop.
The promise the 22-year-old offers is obvious. He hit 20 home runs in 2023 with 39 stolen bases in the minor leagues and has shown off that speed-power dynamic this spring. Lawlar did not hit during his first MLB cup of coffee in 2023, and he heads back down to check some final boxes.
“Very dynamic, can steal bases, to me looked like he put on some weight, matured as a hitter in the box, maybe a little bit more bat speed, a little bit more zone control,” Mather said. “Everything just kind of looks right. He didn’t necessarily look like a young player coming up. He looked like a big leaguer to me.”
Lovullo mentioned in-zone misses on offense and tightening on defense were two areas the club wants to see improvements, specifically his ability to play third base.
Potential starters
C Moreno 1B Naylor 2B Marte 3B Suarez SS Perdomo RF Carroll CF McCarthy/Thomas LF Gurriel DH Smith/Grichuk
Lovullo has been open to being more flexible with his lineups this year after he stuck to a formula for most of last season. Walker owned the clean-up spot in 2024, but that could be a place occupied by several Diamondbacks based on performance this year.
Opening Day is Thursday, as the D-backs will take on the Chicago Cubs for four games to open the campaign. The Diamondbacks expect to contend for the postseason and are counting on run prevention improvements to get over the hump. Scoring in droves in a sure way to position oneself to crack the bracket, as seven of the eight highest scoring teams made the postseason each of the last four years.
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