We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament bracket thousands of times to find each team’s probability of advancing in March Madness on the women’s side. Here’s what we learned.
This is the golden era of women’s college basketball, and the recent NCAA tournaments have been historic.
We saw the dominance of South Carolina, the moxie of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, and the greatness of Caitlin Clark. Clark, Reese and Cardoso are in the WNBA now, but that does not mean that this year’s March Madness bracket will be any less thrilling.
JuJu Watkins is back with a No. 1 seed in her second year with USC. Paige Bueckers looks to win a title in her final season, this time with star freshman Sarah Strong alongside. UCLA, which made the Sweet 16 last year and won the Big Ten tournament this year, seeks its first NCAA title.
Yes, these women are back, and this basketball tournament should be as good as we have seen.
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100). If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
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4 hours ago Layshia ClarendonIn addition, TRACR will power our new Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket that you can sign up for to compete! You get points based on the inverse of the likelihood that a team has to advance to each round.
As an example, TRACR gives Baylor an 80% chance of beating Grand Canyon in the first round. If you pick Grand Canyon and the Antelopes pull an upset, you get 80 points. LSU has an 18% chance of reaching the Final Four – if you pick Kim Mulkey’s squad to win its region and it does, you would get 82 points for that Elite Eight game alone!
Spokane 1: Probability of Making the Final Four
UCLA (34.2%) LSU (18.3%) Ole Miss (11.6%) Baylor (10.4%) Michigan State (9.6%) NC State (5.4%) Georgia Tech (2.2%) Richmond (1.1%) Harvard (0.9%) George Mason (0.8%) Grand Canyon (0.2%) Ball State (0.1%) San Diego State ( Read More Details
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