We’ve simulated the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams making it to each round in March Madness. Here’s everything we learned.
From full court buzzer beaters to dominance against the No. 1 team in the country, this season has been full of drama.
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament should continue that trend.
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
In addition, TRACR is powering our new Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket that you can sign up for to compete in March Madness! You get points based on the inverse of the likelihood that a team has to advance to each round.
For example, TRACR gives Texas A&M a 70% chance of beating Yale in the first round. If you pick Yale and the Bulldogs pull off the upset, you get 70 points. Michigan State has a 17% chance of reaching the Final Four – if you pick the Spartans to win their region and they do, you would get 83 points for that Elite Eight game alone! No purchase necessary.
Before you make your picks, here are a few thoughts about the tourney that TRACR backs up.
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In 2011, the Big East set the record for the most qualifiers in an NCAA Tournament with 11 (remember the old Big East? Miss those days). The SEC blew that out of the water with a record 14 teams this year.
With the expansions of the SEC and Big Ten, it should come as no surprise. The Big Ten got an impressive eight teams in as well. Still, the SEC showed its dominance with two No. 1 seeds, two 2 seeds, one 3 seed and one 4 seed. The average rating for an SEC team by TRACR is 27.9, by far the best for a conference.
The Big Ten is second (22.8), followed by the Big 12 (22.7), Big East (18.6), ACC (14.7) and Mountain West (9.5).
Auburn leads the SEC with the No. 1 overall seed, and rightfully so – the Tigers went a crazy 16-5 in Quad 1 games. However, they’ve hit a bump in falling to 28-5 following a 27-2 start. That is something to consider before riding the No. 1 overall seed to the title.
South Region: Probability of Reaching the Final Four
Auburn (30.5%) Michigan State (16.6%) Iowa State (14.6%) Texas A&M (8.0%) Michigan (5.3%) Marquette (5.3%) Louisville (4.6%) Ole Miss (3.8%) San Diego State/North Carolina (3.4%) UC San Diego (2.9%) New Mexico (1.9%) Creighton (1.8%) Yale (0.8%) Lipscomb (0.4%) Bryant (0.2%) Alabama State/St. Francis (PA) ( Read More Details
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