The Six Nations permutations that could hand England or Ireland unlikely glory ...Middle East

France are hot favourites to win the Six Nations on Saturday for what would be, somewhat surprisingly, only their second title in 15 seasons.

England, Ireland and extreme outsiders Scotland could all pip the French to it, while Italy and Wales are thinking only of fifth place at best. Ireland have already taken the Triple Crown for beating England, Scotland and Wales.

The kick-off times in this weekend’s “Super Saturday” final round of matches are one after the other, unlike in some competitions when they are synchronised to prevent a team having an advantage in knowing what they need to do.

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Ireland play Italy in Rome at 2.15pm, followed Wales versus England in Cardiff at 4.45pm, leaving France and Scotland aware of where they stand when they round it all off in Paris at 8pm (all times GMT).

In each match, a team can gain a maximum five match points down to zero, with four for a win, two for a draw, and a possible one bonus point for scoring four tries or more, and/or for losing by a margin of less than eight points.

Teams who finish level on match points in the final table are separated first by points difference, then by tries scored.

Here are the possible outcomes, team by team…

16 points with a points difference (PD) of +106, tries scored 26

Any kind of win for France over Scotland will be enough to win the Six Nations title, barring a scenario of Les Bleus failing to get a try-scoring bonus and, much more crazily, England outscoring them by 86 points in Cardiff.

The French will be missing their injured talisman Antoine Dupont, and if they falter with a draw or a defeat, it could let in either England or Ireland, depending on their results earlier in the day. France, by the way, also need four tries to beat England’s Six Nations record of 29 in a single Championship, set in 2001.

England

15 points, PD +20, tries scored 15

England are the only team to have beaten the French this year to date, at Twickenham in round two, as they chase a first Six Nations title since 2020. To do so, they must win in Wales and hope Scotland do them a favour in Paris in the evening by denying the French a win. England also need to nab enough points to keep Ireland at bay, if the Irish win in Rome.

England have not even finished in the top two in this competition since 2020, and they haven’t missed those spots for five seasons in a row since the dark days of 1983 to 1988. On form, the likeliest outcome for Maro Itoje’s men is second or third place, but anything from first to fourth is possible.

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14 match points, PD +13, tries scored 13

The reigning champions retain hopes of a history-making third Six Nations title in a row, but they undermined their chances by failing to pick up a bonus point from last week’s loss to France in Dublin and the preceding win over Wales in Cardiff. The Irish must aim to win in Rome to hoist their match points total to 19 or 18, then hope England and France fall short of that tally, later in the day.

Scotland

11 match points, PD +3, tries scored 15

Another season of high hopes confounded for Scotland, as a creditable 15 tries in four matches have brought just two wins. For the record, they do have a very long shot of the title, in which they need to beat France by 52 points with at least four tries, and for both England and Ireland to fail to win, and be on no more than 16 match points after their matches.

4 match points, PD -77, tries scored 8

Small steps, Italy, small steps – the team who finished bottom of the table every year from 2016 to 2023 inclusive, and on 10 previous occasions since they joined the Six Nations in 2000, could avoid that fate for the second year in a row by keeping Wales below them.

Wales

3 match points, PD -65, tries scored 8

Jac Morgan’s team could make a weird kind of history as the first to lose all five matches and avoid the wooden spoon, if they get above Italy with bonus points, which were introduced to the Six Nations in 2017. On the other hand, victory over England would make for a fantastic feelgood factor on the final day.

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