During the Second World War the allies in Libya disguised their limited resources of men and equipment by building phantom armies of dummy tanks, artillery and men in the desert. Their object was to appear more fearsome and to blow smoke into the eyes of the enemy.
The same tactics are now being deployed by Labour MPs who claim they have 80 supporters who are apparently willing to stage a revolt against the Government’s planned welfare cuts. They say they will send a letter of complaint to the Treasury and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the spring statement at the end of March.
While there is no doubt there is mounting disquiet on the Labour backbenches, the strength of numbers promoted by the would-be rebels seems fanciful. The Socialist Campaign Group – which is supporting the fledgling rebellion – currently lists around 25 Labour MPs as members, although three are currently sitting as independents after having the whip suspended.
“I suppose you could put most of what’s left of the campaign group, and then some of the newbies together and get to maybe 30,” a government source said, referring to Labour MPs elected in 2024. “But I don’t know how you get to 80.”
It is also unclear how MPs could even rebel, as there is no need for a vote on the welfare cuts because they do not require any new legislation. Instead, Starmer is likely to face a barrage of questions and complaints when he addresses a closed-door meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in Westminster on Monday evening.
Backbench concerns are being co-ordinated by the Oldham East and Saddleworth MP Debbie Abrahams, who spent the weekend calling colleagues gauging support. On the other side of the argument is the “Get Britain Working Group” of supportive backbenchers set up by the Hendon MP David Pinto-Duschinsky.
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a £6bn cut to welfare as part of a series of politically painful measures to ease pressure on the public finances on 26 March. Senior Labour figures insist reform is needed to deliver value for the taxpayer and help people trapped on benefits back into work.
Around 3.2 million people are trapped in a system in which their entire benefits package is at risk of reassessment if they get back to work. The Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to set out plans shortly that will abolish the highest level of disability benefit, under which jobseekers can double their income if they are signed off as unfit.
Kendall is spending this week in private one-to-one meetings with anxious Labour MPs who, in the absence of a vote on the welfare changes, are seeking last-gasp efforts to influence her thinking ahead of the publication of draft legislation.
But there is a wider issue about party management. After a series of controversial decisions on the two-child benefit cap, winter fuel payments, overseas aid and denying compensation for Waspi women, Starmer is facing growing anger from Labour MPs who feel he is taking the party in the wrong direction.
“None of us campaigned on any of this nonsense. You want to try and be supportive because we have not been in government for 14 years but it’s so hard,” a Labour MP told The i Paper.
Reeves should think again about changing her fiscal rules to soften the blow on welfare changes, the MP added. “The world has changed, right? Even geopolitically so many things have changed. The economy has changed. Everything has changed. So why can we not rethink our fiscal rules? They’re doing it in Germany. Why can’t we also do the same?” they said.
square KITTY DONALDSON
Labour MPs are agitated – and benefit cuts have made it worse
Read MoreMeanwhile, Starmer has sought to buy off any potential rebels by swelling the ranks of his party on the de facto payroll. While his 92 ministers are paid on top of their MP salary and would have to resign to vote against his government, he also has 32 unpaid parliamentary private secretaries who count as part of the administration, alongside 27 so-called mission champions sent out to promote Labour’s priorities and 20 Labour trade envoys.
“There’s a lot of transactional relationships and not there’s not enough people being brought along on the journey,” another Labour MP remarked.
Starmer appears to be trying to do his best at party outreach, despite concentrating on foreign affairs in the past few weeks. He’s had the whole party in to see him in batches to explain his thinking on a wide range of policies. Addressing the PLP meeting is another way of showing he’s in listening mode. But whether it will have the desired effect is an open question.
“These PLP meetings are so orchestrated, we won’t hear anything we want to,” a Labour MP complained. Another veteran Labour MP said they would make sure they are standing near the door so they can slip out quietly “when colleagues start to get boring”.
As hot tickets go, it doesn’t sound the most fun a Labour MP can have on a Monday evening.
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