Ireland host France in a match that could decide the outcome of the 2025 Six Nations. We breakdown the key battles in our Ireland vs France prediction.
The opening game of this weekend’s Six Nations could be the most important one of the entire round. A win for Ireland would keep them clear of the pack going into Super Saturday, while victory for France would take the Championship down to the wire, giving both Les Bleus and potentially England a shot at the title.
Our pre-tournament favourites Ireland come into this match with a formidable record. They have won their last 10 Six Nations home games in Dublin – their longest-ever streak in the competition – and have had the upper hand over France in recent years. A win here would mark their third successive victory against Les Bleus in the Six Nations, a feat they have achieved only once since 2000 (2017-19).
However, Ireland looked a little sluggish in their last outing against Wales, who made them work hard for their victory. Their failure to register a try bonus point could prove costly should they lose to France in Dublin – not that they will be planning for anything other than victory of course.
France, meanwhile, travel to Dublin with momentum on their side after dismantling Italy in Round 3. That emphatic win, combined with a dominant performance against Wales, means France could claim top spot with a superior points difference if they manage to best Ireland on Saturday.
Strengths
The kicking game will be incredibly important in this match, both from an attacking and defensive point of view. For both teams, reclaiming their own kicks has been an effective way to gain quick metres and attack an unstructured defence in the immediate aftermath.
Ireland have retained possession from 19% of their kicks from hand during the Championship this year, the best rate of any team, while France sit just behind in second place, with a 17% retention rate.
If Ireland aren’t able to reclaim their kicks on Saturday, they will need to ensure they apply plenty of pressure on the French catchers. France have scored four tries from kick returns in the Six Nations 2025, as many as every other team combined.
Weaknesses
The set-piece will have been a big focus for Ireland following the Wales game, particularly the scrum which leaked several penalties. As a result, Ireland now have the lowest scrum success rate of any team this year (85%).
Not only that, but Ireland are also the bottom-ranked team when it comes to the lineout, winning just 88% of their throws in the tournament this year.
Of course, Irish fans will point to the Six Nations table as a sign that a weakened set-piece hasn’t affected their ability to win games. While that may be true, it is still an area of the game where France can really disrupt Ireland’s attacking platform.
By contrast, France boast the tournament’s best lineout success rate (97%) and the second-best scrum success rate (94%). With 71% of all tries in this year’s Six Nations originating from either the scrum or lineout, retaining possession and disrupting opposition ball could be the difference between winning and losing.
Les Bleus haven’t shown many weaknesses so far in this year’s Six Nations, ranking highly in most areas. However, in their solitary defeat this year against England they were uncharacteristically sloppy.
Defensively, their 78% tackle success rate in that match was their worst in a Six Nations game since 2006 when they lost their opening game against Scotland (73%), while in attack they undid a lot of their good work with careless handling errors.
France gained 611 metres in that game, their most in any Test since playing Namibia at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, so they had no issues in making their way up the pitch. However, they conceded 19 turnovers – their joint most in any match under Fabien Galthié, alongside the draw against Italy in last year’s Six Nations.
France will need to make sure the passes stick on Saturday or they could find themselves squandering yet more costly opportunities in this year’s Championship.
Fantasy Picks
Most players will have Louis Bielle-Biarrey in their fantasy XV and the young Bordeaux-Begles winger will have been a popular pick as captain over the first three rounds. The 21-year-old has scored five tries in the opening three rounds of this year’s Six Nations and will surely have half an eye on the men’s tournament record of seven, set by a 21-year-old Jacob Stockdale in 2018.
Even when he’s not scoring, he’s been instrumental in France’s attack, providing four assists. His nine try involvements are already a joint record for a single men’s Six Nations campaign.
9 – Louis Bielle-Biarrey has been directly involved in 9 tries in this year's Six Nations (5 tries, 4 assists), the joint most by any player in a single edition of the tournament:9 – Jonny Wilkinson, 2001 (1T, 8A)9 – Will Greenwood, 2002 (5T, 4A)9 – George Ford, 2015 (2T, 7A)… pic.twitter.com/IwVQe7kaFp
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) February 23, 2025Due to the return of Damian Penaud and France opting for a 7-1 split on the bench, Théo Attissogbe is unfortunate to miss out this weekend and he would have been in many fantasy teams for Round 4 had he been named in the French 23.
However, Penaud is one of the best wingers in the world and will be chasing down a try-scoring record this weekend, needing just one to equal Serge Blanco as Les Bleus’ all-time top try scorer. He has scored in three of his last four games against Ireland, including his last two in Dublin, while he gained over 100 metres and beat 11 defenders on his last trip to the Irish capital in the Six Nations.
Caelan Doris looks set to return from injury for Ireland and will surely slot into many fantasy teams. That has the knock-on effect of Jack Conan being forced back onto the Irish bench. He could provide a punchy supersub option, having scored two tries from just 107 minutes of action this year. The Leinsterman has some happy memories of playing France, too, with his first ever Six Nations try coming at home to the French in 2019.
With ball-in-hand Conan is always good for a few hard-earned yards, averaging 29 metres in contact per 80 minutes this year. Only France’s Gregory Alldritt has a better rate among those with over 80 minutes played (31).
Elsewhere in the Ireland team, Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park and James Lowe are all worthy selections and make up three of the eight players to assist more than one try this campaign. The trio will face stiff competition from their opposite numbers this weekend though, both on the pitch and in the fantasy world as fans across Europe ponder their XVs for Round 4.
Ireland vs France Prediction
There’s little to separate these two sides, and that’s reflected in the Opta supercomputer’s prediction. It gives Ireland a 54.8% chance of victory, with France at 44.4%.
Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer expects the match to be decided by the narrowest possible margin and suggests that Ireland will win 24-23.
Ireland vs France Lineups
Ireland
15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Jamie Osborne, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Ryan Baird, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Jack Crowley
France
15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 3 Uini Atonio, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Mickael Guillard, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Paul Boudehent, 8 Gregory Alldritt
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Emmanuel Meafou, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Maxime Lucu
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