Spring football is here, and the College Football Playoff picture should get clearer and clearer as we move through the 15 practice sessions. So many of college football’s heavy-hitters are going through some sort of reload.
Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, and Ole Miss all ranked outside the top 100 in returning production, per Bill Connelly. Tennessee and Notre Dame have less to replace in terms of quantity, but major playmakers walked out the door nonetheless. Michigan will have enormous weight on the shoulders of a true freshman quarterback. The same might be true at Alabama. Clemson and Penn State look like clear front-runners, and neither have been reliable bets in recent years.
Predicting a champion in 2025 won’t be as simple as it has been in past years. The 2024 season ushered in a new level of parity around the sport. Further talent smoothing could produce even more volatility in 2025.
But at its core, the first 12-team Playoff produced what its predecessor often did: a champion that was, in fact, the best in the land.
Ohio State was the most talented. Ohio State had the best roster. Few expected the Buckeyes to take the path they did to a title, but they got there all the same. And a couple of key players made championship-caliber plays along the way.
Jack Sawyer and Will Howard swung the postseason. Sawyer ripped the semifinal game away from Texas with a single play. Howard posted QBRs of 98.8, 97.7, 90.1, and 99.1 in his 4 Playoff games — 3 of his 4 best games all year.
Who swings the Playoff in 2025?
Below, you’ll see 12 names. You’ll see players and coaches. You’ll see guys who have the ability to turn darkhorses into full-blown contenders, or turn contenders into disappointments. There is a cutoff, however. I’m looking only at teams whose odds on BetMGM are better than 50/1. As intrigued as I am by Bill Belichick at North Carolina, he’s not leading that Tar Heels roster to a title in his first season coaching college football. As much as I like Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State, the Sun Devils winning the Playoff seems like too big a step.
Let’s get to it.
12. Carson Beck, Miami quarterback
Odds to win the national championship: 30/1
Entering the 2024 season, we (a collective we) viewed Beck as the best quarterback in the country on the best team in the country. He was supposed to lead Georgia back to the CFP, where the Dawgs would potentially win another title and cement Kirby Smart as the new, unopposed face of college football, and then he was supposed to head to the 2025 NFL Draft, where he’d be taken in the first round as a franchise’s savior.
None of that happened. A year later, Beck is playing college ball for a different team. And he’s not even technically playing yet. After an up-and-down season with Georgia that ended with a torn ligament in his throwing arm, Beck hit the transfer portal. Miami is hoping he can do everything Cam Ward just did. Beck is hoping to revitalize his stock so he can actually get out of the college game.
Funny thing, though. More is on Beck’s shoulders this season than was on Ward’s last season. Miami is replacing all of its top receivers and its leading running back. According to Bill Connelly’s returning production data, Miami brings back just 51% of its offensive production from last year’s team — a mark that ranks 82nd nationally. The defense is replacing a ton as well.
Doesn’t actually sound all that unlike what Beck just went through at Georgia, where he struggled to build chemistry with a new crop of pass-catchers and felt like he had to do it all. If Beck is once again a turnover machine — 20 turnover-worthy plays, 12 interceptions — Miami will slip right back into the second tier of the ACC. And that’s assuming nothing lingers from the offseason shoulder injury.
But what if he’s that “best in class, future first-round pick” guy everyone thought he was going into last year? What if that actually comes to fruition? If he escapes the spotlight of Georgia and, against a weaker conference, terrorizes defenses the same way Ward did? Few in college football have the experience Beck holds. That’s worth something. The ACC is looking like a “Clemson or the field” kind of league in 2025, and Miami doesn’t play the Tigers in the regular season.
11. Bryce Underwood, Michigan quarterback
Odds to win the national championship: 22/1
Michigan is No. 13 in Bill Connelly’s initial SP+ ratings for the 2025 season. That’s a 13-spot increase from where the Wolverines ended the 2024 season.
What changed? The Wolverines have a competent quarterback.
Michigan is 29th in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking. It signed the sixth-ranked high school class, welcomed a new offensive coordinator to Ann Arbor, and held onto defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.
Sherrone Moore’s first season with the Wolverines wasn’t an easy one. Very little returned from the championship team the year before, and Moore had to work around a net-negative quarterback spot all year. Still, Michigan won 8 games while defeating Ohio State and Alabama.
The Wolverines added Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene from the transfer portal to compete with Underwood in 2025. If Underwood isn’t quite ready, the hope is that Keene will provide a high enough floor for Michigan to challenge for a CFP spot while Underwood matures.
I’m not sure I agree with the thinking that Michigan is a legitimate CFP threat without Underwood. Keene had a 46.8 QBR last season and has 21 interceptions over the last 2 seasons. If Underwood loses the quarterback battle this offseason, I’ll head into the year with a healthy bit of skepticism about this team.
But if Underwood wins the job and lives up to his billing, Michigan is absolutely going to the CFP. Hypothetically speaking, what if Underwood looks like DJ Lagway did last season, where the talent was obvious, the big plays were abundant, but the finer details of quarterback play were just a bit rough? A brilliant but raw Underwood can lead Michigan to 10 wins; the schedule is that favorable.
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