The college basketball regular season is closing in on the home stretch as most major leagues have just a handful of games remaining before conference tournaments begin.
With that in mind, it’s a great time to examine the futures market and try to extract some value. All of the best betting apps are offering odds on the National Championship, Final Four and the NCAA Tournament bubble. By breaking down those odds and comparing them to public projection models, we can try to find where the value is in the betting markets.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from a number of legal sports books.
College basketball futures bets for Feb. 21
Nebraska to miss the NCAA Tournament (+350 on bet365)
Implied odds: 22.22% BartTorvik odds: 41.3% Expected value: $85.85 on a $100 wagerNebraska is currently favored to make the NCAA Tournament, but the Huskers are still very much on the bubble. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Nebraska in the “Last 4 byes” section of his latest update. Nebraska is just 5-8 in Quad 1 games and has an eye-sore of a Quad 3 loss on its résumé as well (vs. Rutgers on Jan. 16). The Huskers have 2 Quad 1 games left during the regular season, starting with Michigan on Saturday. Barring a sweep, Nebraska is likely to be sweating on Selection Sunday — and its chances of missing the Big Dance appear to be much greater than the betting markets currently imply.
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BET NOW!Note: There are a small handful of +EV opportunities not mentioned in this story because they were covered in previous iterations of this piece. Relative to the betting markets, BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model still shows a high expected value on Houston to win the National Championship, Purdue to make the Final Four, Texas Tech to make the Final Four and Wake Forest to miss the NCAA Tournament.
College basketball futures market: March Madness predictions, picks (Feb. 21) Saturday Down South.
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