Newcastle United are rated as favourites to pick up three points despite the fact Nottingham Forest are riding high in third. Look ahead to this Premier League game at St James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Newcastle as strong favourites with a 51.4% win probability to Forest’s 25.4%. Newcastle are aiming to avoid three straight home defeats in the league for the first time in four years. Alexander Isak has scored in all three appearances in which he has faced Forest.Newcastle United are aiming to get out of a mini rut when they face Nottingham Forest in a match with huge ramifications in the race for Champions League football at St James’ Park.
The Magpies sit seventh, four places and six points adrift of this season’s surprise package Forest in the Premier League table.
Eddie Howe’s men have lost three of their past four top-flight matches (W1), more than in the previous 12 combined (W8, D2, L2). They last lost more than two league games in a row in December and January last season (4).
Indeed, Newcastle have been defeated in their previous two home Premier League matches against Bournemouth and Fulham, last losing three on the trot under the leadership of Steve Bruce in January/February 2021. Howe himself has not lost three straight home league games since November/December 2019 when he was in charge of Bournemouth.
Alexander Isak is Newcastle’s dangerman having racked up 17 Premier League goals. He has failed to score in his past two league games but has registered on each of his three outings against Forest (four goals). Five Magpies players have netted four in a row against an opponent, with Callum Wilson the last to do so against Tottenham between 2020 and 2023.
Forest themselves have lost back-to-back away Premier League games following their 2-1 reverse at Fulham last time out. They had won four straight on the road before that and are out to avoid three consecutive league defeats for the first time since December 2023 under the leadership of Steve Cooper.
The Tricky Trees have taken the lead on 19 occasions in the league this season, more than any other side. However, they have lost five of the six games when they have gone behind – coming back to win the other against Aston Villa 2-1 in December.
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1 hour ago Ryan BensonEx-Magpies striker Chris Wood has led the way for Forest and has now amassed 29 Premier League goals in 41 appearances under Nuno Espírito Santo. Among all players to have 50-plus shots while playing for a manager on record since 2003-04, Wood under Nuno has the best shot conversion rate (35%, 29 goals from 83 shots).
Morgan Gibbs-White has been equally influential and has nine goal involvements from his past 11 Premier League outings (4 goals, 5 assists). Since the start of last season, only three English players have more assists than the attacking midfielder (15).
Forest have actually faced more shots (342) than they’ve had themselves (318) this season. Since 2003-04, only two sides have finished in the top four with a negative differential between shots taken and faced – Everton in 2004-05 (faced 142 more) and Spurs in 2021-22 (faced 1 more).
Newcastle hope to have centre-back Sven Botman back from a knee injury, though Joelinton will once again miss out with a knee issue of his own and ex-Forest man Jamaal Lascelles is a long-term absentee with an ACL injury.
Taiwo Awoniyi suffered a broken nose and concussion in Forest’s FA Cup tie with Exeter City earlier this month and consequently sat out the 2-1 defeat to Fulham. The striker has had a specially-fitted medical mask made, though, and could feature against Newcastle.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
Newcastle have lost only once against Forest in their past 13 Premier League meetings, winning nine and drawing three of those games.
However, that solitary defeat did come in last season’s corresponding fixture, with ex-Newcastle striker Wood bagging a hat-trick on his return to St James’ Park in a 3-1 win.
Forest had been on a run of seven consecutive league defeats at St James’ prior to that triumph on Boxing Day in 2023.
They have not won on consecutive trips at Newcastle since picking up wins in August 1987 and October 1988, though.
The Magpies won the reverse fixture at the City Ground in November, cancelling out Murillo’s first-half goal with second-half efforts from Isak, Joelinton and Harvey Barnes.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Forest may be riding high but Newcastle are ranked as favourites with the supercomputer, given a 51.4% win probability out of the 10,000 simulations conducted.
The Tricky Trees still hold a favourable chance, though, with a win probability rate of 25.4%. The draw occurs 23.3% of the time.
Newcastle sit seventh in the Premier League table and are predicted to finish there come the end of the campaign (22.6%), though they have a 12.1% chance of ending up fourth and a 16.2% likelihood of finishing fifth, which could still be enough for Champions League football.
Forest have lost two of their past three in the league and have a tough run of matches coming up. However, they are still ranked as most likely to place fourth (23.7%).
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Prediction Opta Analyst.
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