Why Putin could now be unleashed by Trump ...Middle East

Donald Trump’s comments on the war in Ukraine signal a new inflection point that threatens the very existence of Nato, The i Paper has been told

Trump inflamed divisions with US allies in the world’s most powerful military alliance by falsely blaming Ukraine for its war with Russia, telling Volodymyr Zelensky “you should have never started it”.

His push to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal – by force if necessary – were early indicators that the new President‘s foreign policy was increasingly aggressive.

But by sidelining Ukraine, Europe and Nato from US discussions with Russia about ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, and then echoing a false Russian narrative about the conflict, Trump has stepped “into uncharted territory”, experts believe – and Europe and Nato may pay the price.

During the earlier days of his administration, the President repeatedly declared his desire to take control of the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland, make Canada a US state, and retake control of the Panama Canal.

Perhaps the starkest rift with previous administrations’ policies were remarks on Friday by Vice President JD Vance, who indicated the differences between the US and Europe had shifted beyond debates over military burden-sharing, touching instead on deeper societal issues and questioning the alliance’s fundamental values.

“How will you even begin to think through budgeting questions [to increase defence spending] if we don’t know what it is that we are defending in the first place,” he asked a stunned audience at the Munich Security Conference.

Now questions are mounting over the stability of the Nato alliance, its effectiveness, and what comes next.

Deepening fissures

Trump has long criticised allies for not spending enough on defence and reportedly floated the idea of leaving Nato during his first term, but his latest comments and actions have amplified allies’ concerns.

Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, said: “It’s dangerous. And it creates the cracks and fissures in the Nato alliance that would-be adversaries like to exploit.

“Putin likes weakness. And rhetoric like this creates weakness within the alliance.“

Trump’s overly friendly attitude towards the Russian president has sparked fears in Europe of a potential “dirty deal” to end the war in Ukraine on Moscow’s terms, excluding Kyiv from the negotiation process.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet Trump as early as this month, although a face-to-face meeting will take time to prepare, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Kyiv has said it will not accept any deal imposed without its consent.

“Putin will feel emboldened,” said Ed Arnold, Senior European Security Research Fellow at The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), after Ukraine said a Russian drone struck the former nuclear power plant at Chernobyl right before the start of the Munich Security Conference last week.

The Kremlin has denied Moscow was behind the attack.

“It’s very clear that Trump has an agenda, he wants to execute it, and he wants to do that quite quickly. But also, it shows a lack of appreciation of how delicate and complex the situation is,” Arnold said.

Trump told European allies that after he makes a deal, they will have to take the lead on funding and supporting any security arrangements.

Trump has continued to test NATO as he did during his first presidency, but analysts say the situation is far more complicated this time due to the war in Ukraine.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, “Nato has awoken itself and transformed itself….but we’ve still a long way to go,” Arnold said.

The US has not only been the main power in terms of military and financial contributions – but also when it comes to leadership.

“And if you start to take that away, then Nato struggles to operate as a collective organization. The Europeans are quite fragmented in a lot of this. They’re quite focused in on the Russian threat, but it’s not the only threat that these countries face.”

Taking the US out of Nato, “it’s really uncharted territory, because of the centrality of the US since the formation of the alliance,” Arnold said.

Even if Trump is using his threats as a negotiating tactic, “it’s certainly not helpful,” Rizzo said.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will to hold discussions on ending the Ukraine war. (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/Getty)

In the case of Greenland, “we are dealing with the world’s strongest power making claims of territory – that would be a crisis,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, PhD, senior global security researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

Moreover, Denmark’s security “has been fully anchored on US guarantees for decades,” he said. The US is also Denmark’s closest ally in the Arctic, which makes the situation quite difficult.

Denmark has been a big supporter of Ukraine and has been providing crucial intelligence, said Arnold.

“What could Nato do? It will be very little in terms of concrete steps. The big thing will be the political fallout,” said Gad. “This would trigger an existential crisis for Nato.”

At the same time, we have already seen Trump coming up “with these shocking statements in order to push the negotiating partner off guard,” Gad said. “We don’t know what Trump’s end goal is.”

Exploitation by Russia, China and Iran

Nato operating without its key ally is a “silly thought,” Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters in Brussels earlier this month.

He pointed out that the US is also under threat now, with long-range nuclear missiles coming out of North Korea possibly in the future, thanks to the technology Russia is providing to Pyongyang.

“So, for so many reasons, we have to stay connected,” he said. “And I know that the same thinking is still prevalent in the US, including in the White House.”

Russia's plan is to lie outright and then hope for a handshake

Tensions among allies hardly project strength and unity to adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran, who are likely to exploit any perceived weakness in the transatlantic alliance.

“I mean, broadly speaking, they’d be buoyed by that,” said Arnold. “And every time that these things happen, you know, the Russians will be on hand to just make these issues slightly bigger, slightly more difficult, in a way of trying to destabilise and really go after Nato politically, rather than militarily.”

“The issue is that strength that Nato has is relatively is fragile, because it is completely vulnerable to the swaying of the US political system,” Arnold said.

Fuelling Moscow’s military machine

As the US role in the world’s most powerful military alliance grows increasingly uncertain, Trump is now proposing to reinstate Russia into another – the group of the world’s leading economies, the G7.

“I’d love to have them back,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last week. “I think it was a mistake to throw them out…you guys, all you talk about is Russia, and they should be sitting at the table,” he said.

Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 following its initial invasion of Ukrainian territory. Sanctions imposed by the EU and the US after the 2022 invasion have strained Russia’s economy, although Moscow has managed to sustain its military efforts.

Of “all of the surprising things that have been said” last week, the G7 suggestion was “the most concerning, because the Russian economy is under a lot of strain,” Arnold pointed out.

“Enabling Russia back into the sort of financial fold without any real concessions on their side is very worrying. Because it would mean that the Russians are able to sort of help their economy get out of its current trajectory.

“So it’s actually quite dangerous to try and normalize financial relations with Russia. Because it just basically means that they’ll have more money to buy more military equipment,” further increasing the threat to Europe.

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