Six Nations 2025: How Our Predictions Are Holding Up So Far ...Middle East

With the Six Nations entering its first fallow week, we’re revisiting our pre-tournament predictions and analysing the standout stats from the competition so far.

Ahead of the 2025 Six Nations we made some bold predictions. If you want to revisit those, you can check them out here.

As the Six Nations enters its first fallow week, we look back to assess how those are working out so far. We also analyse some of the best stats from the competition to date.

Ireland Will Win the 2025 Six Nations

Unlike most markets, we had Ireland as comfortable favourites ahead of France—and so far, that prediction is proving accurate. The Opta supercomputer gave Ireland a 63% chance of winning the 2025 Six Nations before the tournament began. After two rounds, that probability has risen to 92%.

France’s defeat to England has seen their title chances plummet from 29% to just 4%, though they’ll still hope a win in Dublin in Round 4 could set up a dramatic Super Saturday.

England have seen their stock rise after a tough opening two rounds. They entered the tournament as fourth favourites but are now the most likely team to finish as runners-up (61%).

Louis Bielle-Biarrey Will Finish as Top Try Scorer

This one is looking spot on. Four tries in two games, and Louis Bielle-Biarrey could already have this wrapped up. The Bordeaux winger has now scored 14 tries in his 16-game France career, including one in each of his last five matches. Move aside, Damian.

Picking a Lions Bolter

Predicting a Lions bolter can be as tricky as laying hands on Antoine Dupont. So far, our selections haven’t fared much better than Wales did in trying to contain the French maestro in Round 1.

Ireland’s Cormac Izuchukwu and England’s Asher Opoku-Fordjour have yet to make a matchday squad. However, Scotland’s Tom Jordan has offered some hope. After a bench cameo against Italy, he started against Ireland, and with Finn Russell now an injury doubt, he could have a crucial role to play in the Calcutta Cup.

We also mentioned Henry Pollock, and he has impressed in the U20 Six Nations, earning a call-up to England’s senior training camp. Watch this space.

Will We See a Grand Slam?

Before the tournament, our supercomputer suggested there was a 48% chance of a team securing a Grand Slam. Two rounds in, that probability has edged up to 53%. Ireland are now the only team capable of achieving it, and across our 10,000 simulations, they manage it more often than not.

Someone Will Break the 500-Metre Gain Barrier

With the Dupont Law scrapped after the 2024 Six Nations, we predicted that 2025 would see the first player to break the 500-metre gain barrier since 2014.

It’s looking promising. Blair Kinghorn leads the way with 243 metres, ahead of Marcus Smith (191) and Thomas Ramos (172). If Smith remains at full-back, he could become the favourite, particularly with England’s three ‘easiest’ fixtures still to come.

Our original pick, Freddie Steward, was dropped for Round 2, so his chances of achieving this milestone have all but vanished.

Expect Tight Games

We told you to “expect tight games”. In 2024, the average winning margin was just 8.9 points, the only time in Six Nations history it had dipped into single digits. We expected that trend to continue, though we did caveat that Wales might be an outlier. To be honest their 43-0 loss on the opening evening has dented this prediction.

The average winning margin in 2025 currently stands at 14 points. However, if we remove that Friday night demolition in Saint-Denis, it drops to 7.8, which is much more in line with our expectations.

England have once again provided the tightest encounters, losing by five points in Round 1 and winning by a single point in Round 2.

Bonus Prediction from Antoine Dupont

One more prediction – this time, from Antoine Dupont himself. Before the tournament, he told us he wanted to lead the competition in try assists. Unsurprisingly, he’s doing just that…

3 – When Antoine Dupont was asked ahead of the 2025 Six Nations what stat he'd like to top, he replied try assists. He's currently joint top in this ranking and since his debut in the Championship in 2017, he has more assists than anyone else (20). Oracle. Antoine Dupont – 3… pic.twitter.com/p9IORyrBP3

Best Six Nations Stats from 2025 so far:

1. Round 2 saw both Duhan van der Merwe (102) and Damian Penaud (100) break the 100 defenders beaten tally in the Six Nations. They joined Brian O’Driscoll (163), Stuart Hogg (162), George North (142), Rob Kearney (104) and Gaël Fickou (100) in the centurions’ club.

2. Cian Healy (66) has become Ireland’s most capped player in Six Nations history, moving past Brian O’Driscoll (65), with only Sergio Parisse (69) and Alun Wyn Jones (67) ahead of him.

3. Ireland won 23/23 lineouts against England in Round 1, the most any side has managed in a Six Nations game without misplacing at least one.

23 – @IrishRugby retained possession from all 23 of their lineouts against England, the most of any team to maintain a 100% success rate in a @SixNationsRugby game since Italy joined the Championship in 2000. Platform. pic.twitter.com/LriXbMSVeX

4. Dan Sheehan’s try against England was his ninth in the Six Nations, equalling the record for most tries by a forward in the Championship, level with Imanol Harinordoquy, Jamie Heaslip and Charles Ollivon.

5. Antoine Dupont recorded a hat-trick of try assists vs Wales, the second time he’s managed that in a Six Nations match (4 vs Italy in 2021), no other player has managed it more than once. He now has 20 assists in the Championship, only Conor Murray (29) has more.

6. Wales’ Taulupe Faletau made 13 carries against Italy in Round 2 and in doing so became just the third player to reach 500 carries in Men’s Six Nations history, after Sergio Parisse (785) and Stuart Hogg (541).

Don’t forget, you can compare all the players in this year’s Men’s Six Nations using our Six Nations Stats Hub.

Check out our other Rugby Union content on Opta Analyst. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook

Six Nations 2025: How Our Predictions Are Holding Up So Far Opta Analyst.

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