CADUSD strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, adding to its weekly gain, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data kept expectations in check for another Bank of Canada interest rate cut in March.
The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent higher at 1.4290 per U.S. dollar, or 69.98 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.4281 to 1.4345.
For the week, the currency was up 1.6 per cent, putting it on track for its biggest weekly advance since March 2023, after Canada escaped the immediate implementation of U.S. trade tariffs.
Canada’s economy added 76,000 jobs in January, eclipsing expectations for a gain of 25,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 6.6 per cent.
“On paper, this lowers the odds of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates again at its March meeting,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
“But, with tariffs still scheduled to take effect next month, we remain of the view the Bank will err on the dovish side of caution and reduce the policy rate by a further 25 bp (basis points).”
Investors see a 62 per cent chance the Canadian central bank will ease in March, down from 64 per cent before the data.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday that the threat of tariffs is already affecting business and household confidence. The Canadian dollar was the only Group of 10 currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. A slowdown in U.S. job growth likely gives the U.S. Federal Reserve cover to hold off cutting interest rates until at least June.
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was up 0.4 per cent at $70.89 a barrel, clawing back a small part of its recent losses.
Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve. The 10-year was up 12.2 basis points at 3.083 per cent.
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