England and France come into this match on the back of contrasting results. We assess whether England can reignite their Six Nations campaign or if France will keep their Grand Slam dream alive in our England vs France prediction.
Le Crunch. Whenever a fixture has its own name, it can only be a good thing. This fiery clash between England and France has plenty of history associated with it, and last year’s encounter only added to the legend.
A last-minute penalty from Thomas Ramos denied England a famous win in what was a see-saw match. France had gone 16-3 up before 21 unanswered points from England in just seven minutes swung the game back in favour of the visitors, only for them to be denied at the death, eventually losing 33-31.
Last year’s win for Les Bleus was a third consecutive victory in this fixture and they’re bidding for a fourth straight win against their rivals from across La Manche for the first time since 1978.
However things end up, it’s almost guaranteed to be close, or at least closer than France’s opener against Wales. Of England’s last 17 games, 15 have been decided by single-figure margins, including each of their six Six Nations fixtures during that spell. The only exceptions were two comfortable victories against Japan (52-17 in June 2024, 59-14 in November 2024).
Strengths
France were ruthless in Round 1. Everyone expected a victory – we had them at 90% to win pre-match – but the clinical nature of their win surpassed even our prediction of a 38-17 scoreline.
They managed the most 22 entries (12) and scored the most points per entry (3.6) of any side on the opening weekend, and also conceded the joint fewest 22 entries (5) and not a single point. This dominance was further illustrated by their (almost) exemplary discipline, conceding just three penalties.
Using our Six Nations Stats Hub, we can see that exactly 50% of their line breaks led to a try and 58% of their 22 entries led to tries, yet more examples of how accurate they were when they created chances.
England may have come up short against Ireland, but they competed ably for most of the match, just failing in a few clutch moments, with some errors and missed tackles costing them dear.
In attack they tested Ireland. They evaded a higher share of tackles (28%) than any other side across the opening round and subsequently beat more defenders (33) than any other nation. By managing to commit 2+ defenders on a round-high 71% of their carries they opened up gaps.
Weaknesses
Although they performed well in attack, England struggled more in defence. An 86% tackle success rate is short of the 90% benchmark that international defence coaches aspire to; in fact, only Ireland (82%) had a lower rate in Round 1.
Steve Borthwick’s men also only had an 85% success rate when it came to exiting their 22, the lowest of any side. This was unfortunately highlighted when debutant Cadan Murley fluffed his lines when dealing with a fairly innocuous territorial kick, which was a turning point in the match.
France weren’t flawless in beating Wales, but they didn’t need to be. Their main disappointment will have been the red card handed to Romain Ntamack for a needless and petulant late hit on his opposite number.
Maybe a weakness, maybe not, but only 13% of their play against Wales went wider than first receiver – a round-low figure. Does this make them predictable and overreliant on Antoine Dupont, or does it just point to the fact that Wales didn’t test them enough or put them under enough pressure? Either way, England will have a big focus on starving their creativity at the source and getting in the grill of their quarter-back, Dupont.
Fantasy Picks
Gregory Alldritt was the top-scoring fantasy player in the opening round of the 2025 Six Nations, picking up points across the board in attack and defence. Louis Bielle-Biarrey, our pre-Championship pick for top try-scorer, also featured in the top 10 players but neither of these performances came as a shock against a beleaguered Wales outfit.
Likewise, it was little surprise to see Ramos and Dupont score well, but one player who will have caught people out is 20-year-old Theo Attissogbe. With Damian Penaud out, Attissogbe scored a brace of tries and carried for an impressive 79 metres. At a price of just 12.3, he proved to be a bargain, although Penaud is back for this game and the Pau player drops out of the 23.
Penaud has scored four tries in five games against England and as he hunts down Serge Blanco’s (38, Penaud 36) try-scoring record for France he will be a popular pick. Last year, he was the hardest player to tackle in world rugby, avoiding 63% of the tackles he faced, beating defenders for fun. Leave him out at your peril.
For England, Tom Curry was the pick in Round 1, with a try and a round-high three turnovers really boosting his score against Ireland. England’s backs also performed well with Tommy Freeman, Marcus Smith and Ollie Lawrence all reliable options and featuring in the top 25 players.
Ben Earl, normally a fantasy points machine, had a disappointing match by his standards, so he’ll be eager to make amends against France. His price might put people off.
If a cheap fly-half is what you are after, then Fin Smith could be your man. Drafted in for a first start for England, he is a steal at a price of 9.4. He has a Premiership-high 18 break assists to his name this season, and although you don’t directly get points for that in this game, it gives you a great insight into how creative he is.
England vs France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer suggests France are the favourites for Le Crunch with a 64.9% chance of winning, with England’s win prediction sitting at 34.5%.
England may struggle to claim a losing bonus point with the Opta supercomputer predicting France to win by 10 points, in a 19-29 scoreline.
England vs France Lineups
England
15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 George Martin, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Tom Willis
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Ben Curry, 22 Harry Randall, 23 Elliot Daly
France
15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Antoine Dupont, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 3 Uini Atonio, 4 Alexandre Roumat, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Paul Boudehent, 8 Gregory Alldritt
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Mickael Guillard, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Emilien Gailleton
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