Given the Ryan Brasier trade potentially capping off the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen moves for the offseason, and given how much movement there has been in that group this offseason, I thought it worth a reset just to see where the Cubs stand. How many arms do they have available now for the bullpen group? How many can be moved up and down? Who is fighting for a roster spot?
You will see some broad categories below – the lines are fuzzy, don’t treat them as black and white – which gives you a sense for what the storylines are with this group heading into Spring Training. As of February 6, it’s an excessively crowded list. I currently count 15(!) names that I look at and think, oh yeah, that guy should def be in the bullpen. The Cubs can have just 8 in the Opening Day bullpen. So. You know.
But this is a very good thing! Having tons and tons of usable depth is critical! Heck, I’m not even counting any non-40-man prospects or the three guys the Cubs took in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft!
Obviously a lot of this will sort itself out organically in Spring Training, but as we sit here today …
Locked In If Healthy, No Flexibility
RHP Ryan PresslyRHP Ryan BrasierRHP Tyson MillerLHP Caleb Thielbar
These are the guys who are “in the bullpen period” as of this moment, by virtue of their big league track records and/or by virtue of the fact that they can’t be optioned out, and the Cubs wouldn’t want to lose them for nothing. It doesn’t necessarily mean these are the best four pitchers, though I suppose you’d hope their performance justifies being locked in.
Options Remaining, But Presumably In
RHP Porter HodgeRHP Eli MorganRHP Nate Pearson
There is no reason to expect the Cubs to need to option Hodge back to the minors this year, but you never know. It happens. We’ve seen it before. Hopefully he just keeps doing what he did last year, and the fact that he has options remaining will never matter.
You can say all of that for Pearson, too, with the only caveat that it’s possible he stretches out as a starting pitcher. And you can say most of it for Morgan, whom I don’t think the Cubs traded for just to option to Iowa. But the option is there.
Options Remaining, Likely Up and Down
RHP Gavin HollowellLHP Luke LittleRHP Jack NeelyRHP Daniel PalenciaRHP Ethan Roberts
This is the up-down group to start the season, with the potential for any of them to get locked in at some point. Not everyone can make the big league bullpen right out of the gate, though, so the guys who have the flexibility of minor league options remaining often have to ride the shuttle until they force the Cubs’ hand.
Could Be a Starting Pitcher, Has Options
RHP Javier AssadRHP Ben BrownRHP Caleb KilianRHP Cody PoteetLHP Jordan Wicks
Any or all of Assad, Brown, or Wicks could make the big league roster on Opening Day – in the bullpen or the rotation – or could be optioned to Triple-A Iowa to keep starting on a regular schedule. It’ll depend a great deal on the health of the rest of the staff, as well as how the Cubs want to manage innings.
Assad is a presumptive member of the big league rotation as we sit here today, but it’s also possible he swings into the bullpen at some point if the Cubs get creative with their pitcher usage.
Kilian could probably go in a variety of these categories, but he’s got an option year remaining, so I tentatively expect him to open the season in the Iowa rotation. Poteet is similar, but a tougher call on what his role will be since he’s been a swing man. Tentatively guessing Iowa rotation if he’s not in the big leagues, but nothing would surprise me.
The Colin Rea Category
RHP Colin Rea
I almost included Rea in the locked in group since the Cubs signed him to a healthy big league deal. He’s making the team in one role or another if he’s healthy, but it might not be in the bullpen … and it might not be in the rotation! He might be a hybrid guy right out of the gate, so in an exercise like this, he doesn’t fit cleanly in any of the other buckets.
In the Mix, No Options Remaining
RHP Julian MerryweatherRHP Keegan Thompson
The category kind of says it all for these guys. We know they can be high-quality big league relievers, and we know the Cubs are not going to want to lose them. But you can’t quite say they are fully locked in – heck, start counting and you’ll see why – and you also have to note that there is no flexibility here.
If the choice comes down to an optionable guy and one of these two, I suspect these are the guys who make the team initially just so they aren’t lost. But if they look rough in Spring Training, the Cubs might have some tough choices.
Minor League Signings
RHP Phil BickfordRHP Ben HellerLHP Brandon HughesRHP Brad KellerRHP Brooks KriskeRHP A.J. PuckettRHP Trevor Richards
The Cubs could still add to this group as other big leaguers go unsigned and Spring Training approaches, but this is the reclamation group for now. All except Puckett have pitched to varying degrees of success in the big leagues, and I’ve learned over the years that it’s silly to predict too much with these types in February. So often, they’ve reinvented themselves in the offseason, or something just clicks with the Cubs, and so on and so forth.
We’ll see what we see when Spring Training is rolling, but I would say it’d be a surprise if NONE of these guys winds up contributing to the Cubs this year. The math of it is such that you pretty much always need guys who can come up and whom you can risk losing, and the history of it is such that you pretty much always see at least one reclamation project surprise to the upside.
DFA Limbo
LHP Rob Zastryzny
Zastryzny was DFA’d earlier this week to make room for Brasier, so it’s still TBD what his status will be. If he’s claimed on waivers, it’s a farewell. If he clears waivers and prefers to sign elsewhere, it’s farewell. But if he stays on a new minor league deal, Zastryzny really might still have a good shot to contribute in the big leagues for the Cubs. They are thin on lefty relief options.
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