How Does Alex Bregman Project for Next Season, Anyway? ...Middle East

While we wait to see if the Chicago Cubs will defy our expectations (…and the unavoidable hurdles of payroll, positional overlap, and draft pick compensation) to sign free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, I thought we could take a closer look at how Bregman projects for next season. I think we all know he’s not the sort of MVP-caliber bat he was as a mid-20s slugger, but what do the projections say now?

NOTE: A few weeks ago, I took a look at Bregman’s 2024 season, with a focus on his plate discipline, contact quality, and defensive metrics. So check out that post for more context on the projections that follow.

Oh, and here’s a quick chart of his previous (high-level) offensive production for more context before we dive in.

Alex Bregman Career Stats

Alex Bregman: ZiPS Projections

Houston was the last team to get the ZiPS treatment over at FanGraphs, and because they were his most recent team, Bregman’s projections were only recently released.

ZiPS has Bregman set up for a pretty healthy, productive season overall. And while a sum of 22 homers isn’t much to behold (and could perhaps be even smaller at Wrigley Field), doing that with a strikeout rate UNDER 13% *and* a walk rate approaching double digits is excellent. So what’s the overall slash?

So … nothing too dramatic, but that’s still a – very clearly – good player. Probably a touch under All-Star level if it played out exactly like that.

For what it’s worth, two other projection models (Steamer and PECOTA) have him in similar ranges.

For a little reference, Matt Shaw projects at 105 wRC+ (2.2 WAR) and Nico Hoerner projects at 105 wRC+ (4.2 WAR). So if you were to trade Hoerner to open up second base for Shaw and third base for Bregman, that might be roughly WAR-neutral on paper, but you ALSO would get the benefit of whatever player you traded Hoerner for (plus a little defensive bump by moving Shaw off third and over to his more natural position at second). Shaw won’t have Hoerner’s glove at 2B, but he’d still be above average there and Bregman just took home a Gold Glove at third last season.

So knowing all that … do you still want Alex Bregman? How badly? Personally, I’m still on board, if not only because every marginal improvement (however small) could be crucially important this season, because of Bregman’s second half in 2024.

From July 1 on last season, Alex Bregman looked a lot more like his former self, slashing .274/.325/.519 (138 wRC+) with a 13.5% strikeout rate and 17(!) homers. And he did all that despite a .264 BABIP. Diving under the hood, Bregman made a ton of hard contact (45.9% hard-hit rate, 90.5 MPH EV), with plenty of line drives (21%) and fly balls (45.4%), which means he was keeping it off the ground too. Those numbers (results and peripherals) give me a little more confidence that he can keep playing at a high level, at least over the short term which is what the Cubs are trying to do anyway.

The cost of acquiring Alex Bregman will be steep, but as we saw in the team-PECOTA projections just this morning (and as we know based on the contract status of key contributors like Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly), the Cubs have a very real chance to contend this season, in particular. I’d hate to feel like we began the year with wins on the table.

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